Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)/Past"

Revision as of 01:36, 21 September 2007

ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

Advisory 1

TCAD5 WHCO 180930 CCA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY 1...CORRECTED
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
9 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME

...CORRECTED FORECASTER NAME...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF INEPTIA...

WE HAD ENOUGH INFORMATION AT 3 AM FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO
POSSIBLY JUSTIFY DECLARING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE...BUT
WITH A LACK OF SCATT AND SATELLITE DATA...CHOSE NOT TO DO SO. THE FOLLOWING
SCATTEROMETER PASS...AT ABOUT FIVE HOURS AGO...SHOWED A CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH SOME RAIN-MARRED 40 KNOT VECTORS. RECENT MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A WELL-FORMED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WELL-FORMED FOR BEING
THIS CLOSE TO LAND...JUST 130 KM SOUTH OF THE INEPTIAN COAST. DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO LAND...HAVE CONSERVATIVELY GONE FOR AN INITIAL WARNING STRENGTH
OF JUST 30 KNOTS...MAKING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. IT HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD THE PAST DAY OR SO...INITIAL MOVEMENT IS AT BEST 280/02.

AT 9 AM...THE INEPTIAN GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE LA PLAGE PROVINCE COAST WEST OF ST. DENIS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE CÔTE D'ARGENT COAST EAST OF BERLITZ.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 6.1 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 240 KM...
150 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS MOVING WESTWARDS SLOWLY...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST-
WARD TURN EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PARALLEL THE INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS QUITE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA...29.56 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA WILL GET 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR THE COAST...MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HDCW CONEX. THE MAIN
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A TRACK PARALLELING THE INEPTIAN COAST THROUGH 36 OR
48 HOURS...WITH ALMOST NO DEVIATIONS. ONE OR TWO OF THE MORE MINOR MODELS
ARE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONEX AND TAKE A MORE WESTWARD/WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS...LEADING TO A 72 HOUR POINT NEAR 7N/1E...
WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO FAR SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE WEAKNESS
OF THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO SET IN JUST AFTER 48 HOURS...LEADING TO
A MORE NORTHWARD TURN. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS TO BE SAFE TO RULE CARITAS OUT
OF ANY POSSIBLE HIT FROM THE EAST.

DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING RATHER CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY
MODELS ALL AGREE THAT COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
MODERATE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WILL INHIBIT MOST CHANCES
OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO LESSEN WEST OF 3 DEG E AND NORTH OF 7 DEG N...SO STRENGTHENING IS
PREDICTED ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE HIGH-SHEAR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE FORECAST OF 40 KNOTS IN THE HIGH-SHEAR ZONE MAY BE A BIT HIGH. IN THE
LATER TERM...SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY NEAR 10 DEG N...ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING...AND SO A HURRICANE IS FORECAST AT THE 96
HOUR POINT...WELL AWAY FROM LAND.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...18/0900H
 INITIAL... 05.3 N 06.1 E... 30 KT 
18/2100H... 05.5 N 05.4 E... 35 KT 
19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 35 KT 
19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 35 KT 
20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT 
21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT 
22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 65 KT

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 5.3 NORTH 6.1 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY.

THERE WILL BE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ISSUED BY 1225 HPT...WITH THE NEXT FULL
ADVISORY BY 1535 HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS

TCTW05 FOLN 180925
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:25 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 18 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   TD FIVE
WARNING NR:         1
POSITION:           5.3N 6.1E
ACCURACY:           30NM
MOVEMENT:           W SLOWLY
CENT PRES:          1001HPA
MAX WIND:           30KT
MAX GUST:           40KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     5.5N 5.4E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 18 2146=

Intermediate advisory 1A

TCIA5 WHCO 181225
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 1A
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
12 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 10 AM PAX TIME

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING...
...SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA GETTING BUFFETED BY OUTER BANDS...

AT 12 PM...THE INEPTIAN GOVERNMENT HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST...FOR THE CÔTE D'ARGENT COAST EAST
OF BERLITZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN
COAST FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 12 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 6.0 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 240 KM...
150 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS MOVING WESTWARDS SLOWLY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHWESTWARD TURN EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PARALLEL THE INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA...29.56 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA WILL GET 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR THE COAST...MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE LATEST INFORMATION...AT 1200 HPT...NEAR 5.3N 6.0E. TD FIVE IS
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 1545 HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 2

TCAD5 WHCO 181535
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY 2
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
3 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
...SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA CONTINUING TO FEEL EFFECTS OF RAINBANDS...

DATA FROM AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 38-43 KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...
IN THE REGION OF 32-37 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
VERY TIGHT BANDING WITHIN THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF
THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER LARGE...AND THIS IS HAMPERING ANY RAPID STRENGTHENING
OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM AFLE...AND
T2.0/30 KT FROM HDCW. UHWF IS ON THE HIGH END AT T3.0/45 KT. IT CERTAINLY
IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM...BUT DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
TO LAND AND THE RATHER UNFAVOURABLE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM...I AM GOING FOR AN
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. THE INITIAL MOVEMENT IS NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER...285/07.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM BERLITZ
EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 3 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.8 EAST...ABOUT 320 KM...
200 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H...
8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS QUITE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 999 HPA...29.50 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA BETWEEN BERLITZ AND ST. DENIS
WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR THE COAST...
MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
EXPERIMENTAL HDCW CONSENSUS AND EXTRAPOLATION MODEL. THE WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS ARE THE EXPLANATION FOR THE CURRENT RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION...BUT
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SET TO DEVELOP...THE CYCLONE WILL
TRACK SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE TO THE NORTH IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THIS WEAKNESS.

THE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVOURABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN AVERAGE...ABOUT 27 CELSIUS...BUT ARE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MINIMAL TO WEAK TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS VERY
CLOSE TO LAND...AND COUPLED WITH THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...THIS
IS ENOUGH FOR THE LAND INTERACTION TO BE INHIBITING MUCH INTENSIFICATION.
WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR A MINIMAL OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 24 HOURS.

IN THE LONG RUN...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN...SO STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE HIGH-SHEAR AREA. SSTS ALSO WARM NEAR
10 DEG N...ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING...AND SO A
HURRICANE IS FORECAST AT THE 96 HOUR POINT...WELL AWAY FROM LAND.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...18/1500H
 INITIAL... 05.4 N 05.8 E... 30 KT 
19/0300H... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 35 KT 
19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT 
20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT 
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT 
21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT 
22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 65 KT

REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.4 NORTH 5.8 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT NEAR 13 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 2135 HPT...WITH
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 1830 HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

TCTW05 FOLN 181530
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 3:30 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        1500H JUNE 18 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   TD FIVE
WARNING NR:         2
POSITION:           5.4N 5.8E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 07KT
CENT PRES:          999HPA
MAX WIND:           30KT
MAX GUST:           40KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     5.7N 4.9E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 18 2146
REMARKS:            NEXT WARNING EARLIER IF NECC=