Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)/Past"

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  REMARKS:            NEXT WARNING EARLIER IF NECC=
 
  REMARKS:            NEXT WARNING EARLIER IF NECC=
  
−
==Advisory 3==
+
==Special advisory 3==
 
  TCAD5 WHCO 181900 CCA
 
  TCAD5 WHCO 181900 CCA
 
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA SPECIAL ADVISORY 3...CORRECTED
 
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA SPECIAL ADVISORY 3...CORRECTED
Line 477: Line 477:
 
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.0N 4.5E
 
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.0N 4.5E
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
−
  NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H JUNE 18 2146=
+
  NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H JUNE 19 2146=
  
 
===Intermediate advisory 4A===
 
===Intermediate advisory 4A===
Line 629: Line 629:
 
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.3N 4.0E
 
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.3N 4.0E
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
−
  NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 18 2146=
+
  NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 19 2146=
  
 
===Intermediate advisory 5A===
 
===Intermediate advisory 5A===
Line 805: Line 805:
 
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.4N 3.3E
 
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.4N 3.3E
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
−
  NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 18 2146=
+
  NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 19 2146=
  
 
===Intermediate advisory 6A===
 
===Intermediate advisory 6A===
Line 856: Line 856:
 
   
 
   
 
  FORECASTER JOHNSON
 
  FORECASTER JOHNSON
 +
 +
==Advisory 7==
 +
TCAD5 WHCO 191520
 +
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 7
 +
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
 +
3 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
 +
 +
...EFFECTS OF KANTA GRADUALLY DYING DOWN OVER SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA...
 +
 +
TROPICAL STORM KANTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
 +
WINDS...AND SOME RAIN...NEAR THE COAST IN EXTREME EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT.
 +
HOWEVER...THESE WILL LESSEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
 +
 +
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ EAST TO THE
 +
PROVINCIAL BORDER WITH LA PLAGE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
 +
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FINAL EFFECTS OF THE STORM PASS.
 +
 +
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
 +
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/3.5 FROM AFLE...T3.0/3.0 FROM HDCW...AND NO APPARENT
 +
CHANGE IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WHEN THE
 +
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KNOT WINDS. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS
 +
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...295/15 BASED ON CONTINUITY. THE NEXT...AND FINAL...
 +
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED...FOR NOW...INTO KANTA IS CURRENTLY
 +
EN ROUTE. THE PLANE'S MAIN AIM WILL BE TO DETERMINE WIND RADII...SO
 +
AS SOON AS A FAVOURABLE REPORT IS RETURNED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
 +
FOR INEPTIA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED.
 +
 +
AT 3 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS REPORTED BY
 +
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.2 NORTH LONGITUDE
 +
3.9 EAST...ABOUT 450 KM OR 280 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEACETOWN INEPTIA.
 +
 +
TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H...
 +
17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
 +
24 HOURS...AND A MORE NORTHWARD TURN IS POSSIBLE.
 +
 +
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
 +
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
 +
EXISTS.
 +
 +
THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED SLIGHTLY AND THE CONVECTIVE MASS
 +
IS NOW MUCH MORE TIGHT. THIS MAY MEAN A REDUCTION IN WIND RADII...AND
 +
THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO FIND OUT. PROVISIONALLY...
 +
USING THE LATEST SCATT PASS THAT CAPTURED THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF THE
 +
STORM...WHICH SHOW SOME BELIEVABLE 30 KNOT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE INEPTIAN
 +
COAST...WILL HOLD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII AS SOME OF THE STRONGER
 +
WINDS OVER THE COAST MAY HAVE BEEN MISSED...OR RAIN MARRED.
 +
 +
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM
 +
THE CENTRE OF THE STORM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST.
 +
 +
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY.
 +
 +
THERE ARE NO CHANGES BEING MADE AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST TRACK. SHOULD
 +
THE STORM STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE NEXT ADVISORY...A MORE WESTWARD
 +
MOTION...AWAY FROM THE INEPTIAN COAST...MAY BE IN STORE.
 +
 +
SOME MODELS STILL HAVE KANTA...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT BY THEN IF IT
 +
WEAKENS ENOUGH...EXECUTING AN ANTICLOCKWISE 360 DEGREE LOOP NEAR 15N. THIS
 +
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
 +
 +
STILL...WITH NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST
 +
A HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS SHOWN PAST 48 HOURS...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
 +
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
 +
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
 +
 +
OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 +
INITIAL TIME...19/1500H
 +
  INITIAL... 06.2 N 03.9 E... 45 KT <!-- 19/2100H... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 45 KT -->
 +
20/0300H... 06.8 N 02.7 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/0900H... 07.1 N 02.1 E... 45 KT -->
 +
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.6 E... 50 KT <!-- 20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.1 E... 50 KT -->
 +
21/0300H... 08.7 N 00.6 E... 55 KT <!-- 21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT -->
 +
21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT <!-- 21/2100H... 10.8 N 00.3 W... 55 KT   
 +
22/0300H... 11.6 N 00.5 W... 55 KT      22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 50 KT -->
 +
22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 50 KT <!-- 22/2100H... 13.7 N 00.9 W... 45 KT     
 +
23/0300H... 14.5 N 00.4 W... 40 KT      23/0900H... 15.0 N 00.3 E... 35 KT -->
 +
23/1500H... 15.6 N 00.6 E... 30 KT
 +
 +
REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 6.2 NORTH 3.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 +
WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
 +
WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H.
 +
 +
THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 PM
 +
HPT. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED FOR 630 PM HPT...BUT IF WARNINGS ARE
 +
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...THE WARNING CANCELLATION WILL SUPERSEDE THE INTERMEDIATE
 +
ADVISORY.
 +
 +
FORECASTER JOHNSON
 +
----
 +
TCTW05 FOLN 191520
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 +
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 +
ISSUED 3:20 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
 +
ACTIVE TIME:        1500H JUNE 19 2146
 +
WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE:  KANTA
 +
WARNING NR:        7
 +
POSITION:          6.2N 3.9E
 +
ACCURACY:          20NM
 +
MOVEMENT:          WNW 15KT
 +
CENT PRES:          993HPA
 +
MAX WIND:          45KT
 +
MAX GUST:          55KT
 +
FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.8N 2.7E
 +
FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
 +
NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 19 2146=
 +
 +
===Intermediate advisory 7A===
 +
TCIA5 WHCO 191830
 +
TROPICAL STORM KANTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 7A
 +
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
 +
6 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
 +
 +
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT AS PRECAUTION...
 +
 +
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE CÔTE D'ARGENT
 +
EAST OF BERLITZ. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED TONIGHT.
 +
 +
AT 6 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
 +
LATITUDE 6.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 3.6 EAST...ABOUT 195 KM...120 MILES
 +
OFF THE COAST OF INEPTIA...ABOUT 775 KM...485 MILES SOUTH OF
 +
BERLITZ.
 +
 +
TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 30 KM/H...
 +
18 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM TURNS SLIGHTLY
 +
TO THE NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
 +
 +
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER
 +
GUSTS. SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 +
 +
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES
 +
FROM THE STORM CENTRE...MOSTLY TO THE EAST.
 +
 +
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY.
 +
 +
REPEATING THE 6 PM POSITION...6.3 N 3.6 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
 +
NEAR 85 KM/H. KANTA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 30 KM/H. MINIMUM
 +
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 HPA.
 +
 +
THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY
 +
AT 9 PM HPT.
 +
 +
FORECASTER LAVAL
 +
 +
==Advisory 8==
 +
TCAD5 WHCO 192130
 +
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 8
 +
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
 +
9 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
 +
 +
...KANTA STRENGTHENS TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
 +
THE INEPTIAN COAST...
 +
 +
AT 9 PM HPT...ALL WARNINGS FOR INEPTIA ARE DISCONTINUED.
 +
 +
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE STORM'S WIND-
 +
FIELD FOUND BELIEVABLE 54 KNOT SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE
 +
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM AT AROUND 8 PM. SATELLITE INTENSITY
 +
ESTIMATES...T3.0/3.5 FROM AFLE AND T3.5/3.5 FROM HDCW...ARE IN GOOD
 +
AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. THIS RECONNAISSANCE
 +
FLIGHT...WHICH IS THE LAST ONE SCHEDULED AS THE STORM NOW DOES NOT
 +
POSE A LAND THREAT...ALSO FOUND A PRESSURE OF 989 HPA...WHICH MAY
 +
SUGGEST THAT SOME RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD BE TAKING PLACE. THE
 +
RECON FLIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR A FEW HOURS TO CONTINUE MONITORING
 +
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...INITIAL MOTION IS 300/19.
 +
 +
AT 9 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED
 +
NEAR LATITUDE 6.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 3.3 EAST...ABOUT 1000 KM...625 MI
 +
SOUTH OF PORT DU POIVRE INEPTIA.
 +
 +
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
 +
30 KM/H...18 MPH...BUT A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED...AS
 +
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IF KANTA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
 +
AT A RAPID PACE AS FORECAST.
 +
 +
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 KM/H...65 MPH...WITH
 +
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
 +
AND KANTA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW MORNING.
 +
 +
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 KM...115 MILES
 +
FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST.
 +
 +
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECORDED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
 +
FLIGHT WAS 989 HPA...29.20 INCHES OF MERCURY.
 +
 +
THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT...ORIGINALLY
 +
SCHEDULED TO END AT 1030 PM HPT...HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 330 AM HPT
 +
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STORM AS IT UNDERGOES WHAT COULD BE SOME
 +
RAPID STRENGTHENING. AS SUCH...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE
 +
TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TAKE A MORE
 +
WESTERLY COURSE...WELL AWAY FROM LAND. HOWEVER...IN THE LONG TERM
 +
THIS MAKES THE TRACK FORECAST A BIT DIFFICULT...WHETHER THE STORM
 +
WILL IMPACT CARITAS...OR GRAYS HARBOR.
 +
 +
ON THIS NEW FORECAST TRACK THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER AN
 +
AREA OF 5 TO 10 KNOT SHEAR AS WELL AS 29 TO 30 DEG C SEA SURFACE
 +
TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD CAUSE EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION. IT IS
 +
NOW FORECAST TO CROSS THE PAX LINE AT A LOWER LATITUDE...AND WILL
 +
NOT RECURVE AS EARLY...IF AT ALL. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE 96
 +
HOUR FORECAST POINT WILL SHOW SOME RECURVATURE.
 +
 +
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...ASSUMING RAPID STRENGTHENING...HAVE GONE
 +
FOR A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
 +
STRENGTH SOME TIME ON THE MORNING OF THE 21ST AS IT PASSES OVER
 +
THE ABOVEMENTIONED FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. SINCE THE MODELS STILL
 +
CALL FOR A TUTT CELL TO DEVELOP IN THE LONG RUN...RAPID WEAKENING
 +
BEYOND 48 HOURS IS POSSIBLE...AND THE 96 HOUR FORECAST IS AS A
 +
MINIMAL CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE
 +
TRACK...AND INTENSITY...FORECASTS BEYOND 48 HOURS.
 +
 +
HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STATIONED IN
 +
SCHTOOPSTADT WILL BEGIN RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE STORM STARTING
 +
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
 +
 +
OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 +
INITIAL TIME...19/2100H
 +
  INITIAL... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 55 KT <!-- 20/0300H... 06.6 N 02.6 E... 65 KT -->
 +
20/0900H... 06.8 N 01.9 E... 70 KT <!-- 20/1500H... 07.2 N 01.3 E... 75 KT -->
 +
20/2100H... 07.5 N 00.7 E... 85 KT <!-- 21/0300H... 08.1 N 00.0 E... 95 KT -->
 +
21/0900H... 08.5 N 00.5 W...100 KT <!-- 21/1500H... 09.3 N 01.2 W...105 KT -->
 +
21/2100H... 10.0 N 01.9 W...105 KT <!-- 22/0300H... 10.6 N 02.0 W...100 KT   
 +
22/0900H... 11.1 N 01.9 W... 95 KT      22/1500H... 11.6 N 01.8 W... 90 KT -->
 +
22/2100H... 12.2 N 01.7 W... 85 KT <!-- 23/0300H... 12.8 N 01.4 W... 80 KT   
 +
23/0900H... 13.4 N 01.2 E... 75 KT      23/1500H... 14.0 N 00.8 E... 70 KT -->
 +
23/2100H... 14.5 N 00.6 W... 65 KT
 +
 +
REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION...NEAR 6.4 NORTH 3.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 +
WINDS NEAR 100 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
 +
WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 30 KM/H.
 +
 +
THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM
 +
HPT. 
 +
 +
FORECASTER JOHNSON/LAVAL
 +
----
 +
TCTW05 FOLN 192130
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 +
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 +
ISSUED 9:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
 +
ACTIVE TIME:        2100H JUNE 19 2146
 +
WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE:  KANTA
 +
WARNING NR:        8
 +
POSITION:          6.4N 3.3E
 +
ACCURACY:          15NM
 +
MOVEMENT:          WNW 19KT
 +
CENT PRES:          989HPA
 +
MAX WIND:          55KT
 +
MAX GUST:          65KT
 +
FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.8N 1.9E
 +
FCST 12HR WINDS:    70KT G85KT
 +
NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H JUNE 20 2146=
 +
 +
===Tropical cyclone update===
 +
TCUP5 WHCO 200050
 +
HURRICANE KANTA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
 +
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
 +
12:50 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
 +
 +
LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
 +
KANTA INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY ONE
 +
HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 120 KM/H...75 MPH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL
 +
PRESSURE MEASURED WAS 985 HPA...29.09 INCHES OF MERCURY.
 +
 +
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 KM...10 MILES FROM THE
 +
CENTRE.
 +
 +
FORECASTER JOHNSON/LAVAL
 +
 +
==Advisory 9==
 +
TCAD5 WHCO 200330
 +
HURRICANE KANTA ADVISORY 9
 +
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
 +
3 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
 +
 +
...KANTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AWAY FROM THE INEPTIAN COAST...
 +
 +
AS I TYPE THIS...THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KANTA IS
 +
WRAPPING UP ITS FINAL FLIGHT INTO THE STORM. CIVILIAN RECONNAISSANCE
 +
FLIGHTS BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR
 +
FORCE'S FLIGHTS...AND TIMELY INFORMATION FROM THESE FLIGHTS...HAVE
 +
HELPED GREATLY IN MONITORING APPARENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE
 +
KANTA.
 +
 +
BASED ON LATEST DATA...INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS...THIS
 +
COULD BE A BIT ON THE LOW END. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...INITIAL MOTION
 +
IS 305/17.
 +
 +
AT 3 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE KANTA WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
 +
PLANE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 2.6 EAST...ABOUT 450 KM...
 +
280 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERLITZ INEPTIA.
 +
 +
HURRICANE KANTA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 32 KM/H...20 MPH. A
 +
NORTHWESTERLY TURN IS EXPECTED SOME TIME IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 +
 +
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 KM/H...80 MPH...WITH
 +
HIGHER GUSTS. KANTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
 +
HURRICANE SCALE. FURTHER RAPID STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
 +
HOURS.
 +
 +
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 225 KM...140 MILES...AND
 +
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 KM...15 MILES...FROM THE
 +
CENTRE OF THE STORM.
 +
 +
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECORDED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
 +
FLIGHT WAS 983 HPA...29.03 INCHES OF MERCURY.
 +
 +
THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT HAS NOT BEEN EXTENDED
 +
FURTHER AND IS NOW OVER. THANKS TO TIMELY DATA PROVIDED WE HAVE BEEN ABLE
 +
TO MONITOR THE RATHER UNEXPECTED SUDDEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM...
 +
AND MANY THANKS FROM THE HHPC TO THEM.
 +
 +
HURRICANE KANTA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND ONLY POSITIVE
 +
CONDITIONS AWAIT THIS MONSTER STORM. IT IS THANKFUL THAT THERE IS NO LAND
 +
IN THE WAY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A VERY POWERFUL
 +
KILLER. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT IT IS USEFUL
 +
TO NOTE THAT IN THE LONG TERM PAST THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK...
 +
SINCE LESS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN EARLY RECURVE. IN THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
 +
MODEL RUNS THIS SHOULD BECOME MUCH CLEARER.
 +
 +
AS MENTIONED...ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THERE ARE VERY FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
 +
AHEAD OF THE STORM. SHEAR IS MINIMAL...AND 10 KNOTS AT MOST. SEA SURFACE
 +
TEMPERATURES ARE A VERY HELPFUL 28 TO 29 DEGREES C...WITH AN EDDY OF 30 TO
 +
31 DEGREES C SST LYING AHEAD OF THE STORM SOME TIME TOMORROW MORNING. AS
 +
THE STORM IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...IF IT STILL IS AT THAT POINT
 +
IN TIME...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A CATEGORY FIVE STORM...SOMETHING THAT AT
 +
NO POINT EARLIER ON WE EVER EXPECTED. FOR THIS FORECAST...I'M NOT GOING TO
 +
BE TOO BULLISH JUST YET...BUT WILL REFLECT A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR STORM FOR
 +
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
 +
 +
A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP...BUT IF
 +
THE STORM IS STILL AT A FAIRLY LOW LATITUDE AND WESTERLY LONGITUDE WHEN THIS
 +
HAPPENS...THE TUTT COULD ACTUALLY ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE SYSTEM...
 +
INSTEAD OF CAUSING STRONG SHEAR. THIS IN TURN COULD MEAN MORE TIME SPENT
 +
AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. INDEED...ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE 96 HOUR
 +
FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 65 KNOTS TO 70 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
 +
POSSIBILITY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE CLEARER.
 +
 +
HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STATIONED IN SCHTOOPSTADT WILL
 +
BEGIN RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE STORM STARTING THIS MORNING.
 +
 +
OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 +
INITIAL TIME...20/0300H
 +
  INITIAL... 06.6 N 02.6 E... 70 KT <!-- 20/0900H... 06.8 N 01.9 E... 80 KT -->
 +
20/1500H... 07.2 N 01.3 E... 90 KT <!-- 20/2100H... 07.5 N 00.7 E... 95 KT -->
 +
21/0300H... 08.1 N 00.0 E...105 KT <!-- 21/0900H... 08.5 N 00.5 W...115 KT -->
 +
21/1500H... 09.3 N 01.2 W...125 KT <!-- 21/2100H... 10.0 N 01.9 W...125 KT -->
 +
22/0300H... 10.6 N 02.0 W...120 KT <!-- 22/0900H... 11.1 N 01.9 W...105 KT   
 +
22/1500H... 11.6 N 01.8 W...100 KT      22/2100H... 12.2 N 01.7 W... 95 KT -->
 +
23/0300H... 12.8 N 01.4 W... 90 KT <!-- 23/0900H... 13.4 N 01.2 W... 85 KT   
 +
23/1500H... 14.0 N 00.8 W... 80 KT      23/2100H... 14.5 N 00.6 W... 75 KT -->
 +
24/0300H... 15.0 N 00.1 W... 70 KT
 +
 +
REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...NEAR 6.6 NORTH 2.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
 +
NEAR 130 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
 +
AT NEAR 32 KM/H.
 +
 +
THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM
 +
HPT. 
 +
 +
FORECASTER JARVINEN/HUNTER
 +
----
 +
TCTW05 FOLN 200330
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 +
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 +
ISSUED BY HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
 +
ISSUED 3:30 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
 +
ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 20 2146
 +
WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA/WHCO
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE:  KANTA
 +
WARNING NR:        9
 +
POSITION:          6.6N 2.6E
 +
ACCURACY:          10NM
 +
MOVEMENT:          WNW 17KT
 +
CENT PRES:          984HPA
 +
MAX WIND:          70KT
 +
MAX GUST:          85KT
 +
FCST 12HR PSTN:    7.2N 1.3E
 +
FCST 12HR WINDS:    90KT G110KT
 +
NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 20 2146=

Latest revision as of 10:51, 8 October 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

Advisory 1

TCAD5 WHCO 180930 CCA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY 1...CORRECTED
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
9 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME

...CORRECTED FORECASTER NAME...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF INEPTIA...

WE HAD ENOUGH INFORMATION AT 3 AM FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO
POSSIBLY JUSTIFY DECLARING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE...BUT
WITH A LACK OF SCATT AND SATELLITE DATA...CHOSE NOT TO DO SO. THE FOLLOWING
SCATTEROMETER PASS...AT ABOUT FIVE HOURS AGO...SHOWED A CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH SOME RAIN-MARRED 40 KNOT VECTORS. RECENT MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A WELL-FORMED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WELL-FORMED FOR BEING
THIS CLOSE TO LAND...JUST 130 KM SOUTH OF THE INEPTIAN COAST. DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO LAND...HAVE CONSERVATIVELY GONE FOR AN INITIAL WARNING STRENGTH
OF JUST 30 KNOTS...MAKING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. IT HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD THE PAST DAY OR SO...INITIAL MOVEMENT IS AT BEST 280/02.

AT 9 AM...THE INEPTIAN GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE LA PLAGE PROVINCE COAST WEST OF ST. DENIS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE CÔTE D'ARGENT COAST EAST OF BERLITZ.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 6.1 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 240 KM...
150 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS MOVING WESTWARDS SLOWLY...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST-
WARD TURN EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PARALLEL THE INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS QUITE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA...29.56 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA WILL GET 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR THE COAST...MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HDCW CONEX. THE MAIN
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A TRACK PARALLELING THE INEPTIAN COAST THROUGH 36 OR
48 HOURS...WITH ALMOST NO DEVIATIONS. ONE OR TWO OF THE MORE MINOR MODELS
ARE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONEX AND TAKE A MORE WESTWARD/WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS...LEADING TO A 72 HOUR POINT NEAR 7N/1E...
WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO FAR SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE WEAKNESS
OF THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO SET IN JUST AFTER 48 HOURS...LEADING TO
A MORE NORTHWARD TURN. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS TO BE SAFE TO RULE CARITAS OUT
OF ANY POSSIBLE HIT FROM THE EAST.

DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING RATHER CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY
MODELS ALL AGREE THAT COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
MODERATE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WILL INHIBIT MOST CHANCES
OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO LESSEN WEST OF 3 DEG E AND NORTH OF 7 DEG N...SO STRENGTHENING IS
PREDICTED ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE HIGH-SHEAR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE FORECAST OF 40 KNOTS IN THE HIGH-SHEAR ZONE MAY BE A BIT HIGH. IN THE
LATER TERM...SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY NEAR 10 DEG N...ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING...AND SO A HURRICANE IS FORECAST AT THE 96
HOUR POINT...WELL AWAY FROM LAND.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...18/0900H
 INITIAL... 05.3 N 06.1 E... 30 KT 
18/2100H... 05.5 N 05.4 E... 35 KT 
19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 35 KT 
19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 35 KT 
20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT 
21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT 
22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 65 KT

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 5.3 NORTH 6.1 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY.

THERE WILL BE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ISSUED BY 1225 HPT...WITH THE NEXT FULL
ADVISORY BY 1535 HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS

TCTW05 FOLN 180925
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:25 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 18 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   TD FIVE
WARNING NR:         1
POSITION:           5.3N 6.1E
ACCURACY:           30NM
MOVEMENT:           W SLOWLY
CENT PRES:          1001HPA
MAX WIND:           30KT
MAX GUST:           40KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     5.5N 5.4E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 18 2146=

Intermediate advisory 1A

TCIA5 WHCO 181225
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 1A
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
12 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 10 AM PAX TIME

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING...
...SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA GETTING BUFFETED BY OUTER BANDS...

AT 12 PM...THE INEPTIAN GOVERNMENT HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST...FOR THE CÔTE D'ARGENT COAST EAST
OF BERLITZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN
COAST FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 12 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 6.0 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 240 KM...
150 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS MOVING WESTWARDS SLOWLY...WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHWESTWARD TURN EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PARALLEL THE INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA...29.56 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA WILL GET 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR THE COAST...MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE LATEST INFORMATION...AT 1200 HPT...NEAR 5.3N 6.0E. TD FIVE IS
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 1545 HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 2

TCAD5 WHCO 181535
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY 2
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
3 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
...SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA CONTINUING TO FEEL EFFECTS OF RAINBANDS...

DATA FROM AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 38-43 KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...
IN THE REGION OF 32-37 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
VERY TIGHT BANDING WITHIN THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF
THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER LARGE...AND THIS IS HAMPERING ANY RAPID STRENGTHENING
OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM AFLE...AND
T2.0/30 KT FROM HDCW. UHWF IS ON THE HIGH END AT T3.0/45 KT. IT CERTAINLY
IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM...BUT DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
TO LAND AND THE RATHER UNFAVOURABLE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM...I AM GOING FOR AN
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. THE INITIAL MOVEMENT IS NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER...285/07.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM BERLITZ
EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 3 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.8 EAST...ABOUT 320 KM...
200 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H...
8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS QUITE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 999 HPA...29.50 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA BETWEEN BERLITZ AND ST. DENIS
WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR THE COAST...
MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
EXPERIMENTAL HDCW CONSENSUS AND EXTRAPOLATION MODEL. THE WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS ARE THE EXPLANATION FOR THE CURRENT RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION...BUT
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SET TO DEVELOP...THE CYCLONE WILL
TRACK SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE TO THE NORTH IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THIS WEAKNESS.

THE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVOURABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN AVERAGE...ABOUT 27 CELSIUS...BUT ARE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MINIMAL TO WEAK TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS VERY
CLOSE TO LAND...AND COUPLED WITH THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...THIS
IS ENOUGH FOR THE LAND INTERACTION TO BE INHIBITING MUCH INTENSIFICATION.
WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR A MINIMAL OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 24 HOURS.

IN THE LONG RUN...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN...SO STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE HIGH-SHEAR AREA. SSTS ALSO WARM NEAR
10 DEG N...ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING...AND SO A
HURRICANE IS FORECAST AT THE 96 HOUR POINT...WELL AWAY FROM LAND.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...18/1500H
 INITIAL... 05.4 N 05.8 E... 30 KT 
19/0300H... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 35 KT 
19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT 
20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT 
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT 
21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT 
22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 65 KT

REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.4 NORTH 5.8 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT NEAR 13 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 2135 HPT...WITH
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 1830 HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

TCTW05 FOLN 181530
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 3:30 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        1500H JUNE 18 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   TD FIVE
WARNING NR:         2
POSITION:           5.4N 5.8E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 07KT
CENT PRES:          999HPA
MAX WIND:           30KT
MAX GUST:           40KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     5.7N 4.9E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 18 2146
REMARKS:            NEXT WARNING EARLIER IF NECC=

Special advisory 3

TCAD5 WHCO 181900 CCA
TROPICAL STORM KANTA SPECIAL ADVISORY 3...CORRECTED
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
7 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 5 PM PAX TIME
...CORRECTED FOR MINOR TEXT JUSTIFICATION...

...THIRD NAMED STORM OF SEASON FORMS OFF INEPTIAN COAST...

DATA FROM AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOWS THAT IT HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM...THE
THIRD OF THE SEASON. OBS FROM AROUND 1750 HPT WERE MOST HELPFUL IN
DETERMINING THE NEED TO UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO TS KANTA...WITH CLOSE
TO 45 KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...ALMOST 38 KNOTS AT SURFACE. A SONDE
REPORT FROM SHORTLY AFTER...AROUND 1815...HAD A SURFACE WIND OF 39
KNOTS. SO...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED...AND SUPERSEDES THE
SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
SET AT 40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR INTENSITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM
BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 7 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.5 EAST...ABOUT 405 KM...
250 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA. AT THE SYNOPTIC HOUR...6 PM HPT...
THE CENTRE WAS ABOUT 390 KM WEST OF ST. DENIS.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H...
8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE
INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H...45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 996 HPA...29.41 INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA BETWEEN BERLITZ AND ST.
DENIS WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR
THE COAST...MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

NO FORECAST PROGNOSTIC INVOLVED WITH THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY...THE FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO ADJUST INTENSITY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...18/1900H
 INITIAL... 05.4 N 05.5 E... 40 KT 
19/0300H... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 40 KT 
19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT 
20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT 
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT 
21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT 
22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 65 KT

REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.4 NORTH 5.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 13 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 2135 HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

TCTW05 FOLN 181900
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 7 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        1900H JUNE 18 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         3
POSITION:           5.4N 5.5E
ACCURACY:           20NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 07KT
CENT PRES:          996HPA
MAX WIND:           40KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     5.7N 4.9E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 18 2146=

Advisory 4

TCAD5 WHCO 182120 CCC
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 4...CORRECTED
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
9 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME
...CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY...
...CORRECTED FORECAST...
...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME...

...THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON MEANDERING OFF SW INEPTIA...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 1900
BASED ON DATA WE HAD FROM THE AFLE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...WHICH
SUGGESTED AN INTENSITY OF 38-39 KNOTS. THE PLANE HAS SINCE LEFT THE
STORM...AND ANOTHER ONE WILL BE IN TO INVESTIGATE IT EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. SINCE IT HAS ONLY BEEN TWO HOURS SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THERE HAS BEEN NO OBVIOUS CHANGE IN THE CYCLONE...THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM
BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THIS WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA WEST OF BERLITZ SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.4 EAST...ABOUT 420 KM...
260 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA. 

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H...
8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE
INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H...45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
A SLIGHT TEMPORARY WEAKENING REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE OUTER BANDS OF THE
STORM CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LAND.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 KM...90 MILES FROM
THE CENTRE.

THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA...29.38 INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE STORM REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED AS IT
WAS. THEREFORE...AT THIS POINT THERE ARE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LAST FORECAST.
SOME MODELS NOW SHOWING SHEAR RELAXING EARLIER THAN FORECAST...IN ABOUT
12 HOURS...SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT...WITH SUCH A COMPACT SYSTEM...
THE SYSTEM COULD START TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. WHILE IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...
BASED ON CONTINUITY THERE IS ALSO NO CHANGE TO THE LAST INTENSITY FORECAST...
WHICH HOLDS THE CYCLONE AT 40 KNOTS THROUGH 24 HOURS AND SHOWS A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AFTER. A HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS
NOT REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST AS KANTA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEAR 14N UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS
RESTRICTED OUTFLOW BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...18/2100H
 INITIAL... 05.5 N 05.4 E... 40 KT 
19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 40 KT 
19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 40 KT 
20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT 
20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.2 E... 55 KT 
21/2100H... 10.8 N 00.3 W... 60 KT 
22/2100H... 13.7 N 00.9 W... 60 KT

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.5 NORTH 5.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 13 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0335 HPT
WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 0030 HPT.

FORECASTER JARVIS/RINDLI

TCTW05 FOLN 182120
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:20 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        2100H JUNE 18 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         4
POSITION:           5.5N 5.3E
ACCURACY:           20NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 07KT XTRP
CENT PRES:          995HPA
MAX WIND:           40KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     6.0N 4.5E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H JUNE 19 2146=

Intermediate advisory 4A

TCIA5 WHCO 190015
TROPICAL STORM KANTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 4A
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
12 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146... 10 PM PAX TIME

...SMALL-SIZED STORM WEAKENS SLIGHTLY INTERACTING WITH LAND...

AT MIDNIGHT HPT...THE GOVERNMENT OF INEPTIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE LA PLAGE PROVINCE EAST OF 6 E TO
ST DENIS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF 4 E TO BERLITZ HAS
ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF INEPTIA
FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT EAST OF 4 DEG E AND FOR LA PLAGE WEST OF 6 DEG E.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT FROM
BERLITZ SOUTHWARDS TO THE COAST ALONG 4 DEG E.

AT MIDNIGHT HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 5.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.2 EAST...ABOUT 485 KM...300 MI
SOUTH OF PEACETOWN INEPTIA...AND ABOUT 195 KM...120 MI SOUTH OF THE
LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT BORDER.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H...
14 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 65 KM/H...40 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TEMPORARY...AND
KANTA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 KM...90 MILES FROM
THE CENTRE.

THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA...29.38
INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 12 AM HPT POSITION...NEAR 5.6 N 5.2 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. KANTA IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY
WITHIN THREE HOURS.

FORECASTER RINDLI

Advisory 5

TCAD5 WHCO 190320
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 5
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
3 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...KANTA CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST INEPTIA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF INEPTIA
FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT EAST OF 4 DEG E AND FOR LA PLAGE WEST OF 6 DEG E.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT FROM
BERLITZ SOUTHWARDS TO THE COAST ALONG 4 DEG E.

AT THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WE LOWERED THE INTENSITY OF KANTA TO
35 KNOTS BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESIMTATES...WHICH DECREASED LATE YESTERDAY AND INTO THIS MORNING.
SINCE THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE
STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. A REPORT FROM THE LA PLAGE COAST
WHICH RECENTLY CAME IN INDICATED A GUST TO ABOUT 43 KNOTS...SO IT
APPEARS THAT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KNOTS...PENDING AN
AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO THE STORM LATER THIS MORNING...IS
THE BEST CHOICE. THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX IS IN ABOUT TWO HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...AND NOW THE ESTIMATE IS
290/12.

AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 5.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.9 EAST...ABOUT 145 KM...90 MI SOUTH
OF THE LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT BORDER.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H...
14 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THIS FORECAST TRACK IS
LIKELY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING
LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST OF INEPTIA...
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING.

BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE PASS MADE SHORTLY AFTER
THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AS WELL AS THE GROUND OBSERVATION WE RECEIVED
FROM LA PLAGE...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FELT ACROSS THE COAST...
AND THEY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 170 KM...105 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA...29.38
INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THERE IS NO REASON FOR ME TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FROM
LAST TIME. THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...
BUT IF KANTA STARTS TO WEAKEN UNEXPECTEDLY...OR VICE-VERSA AND UNDERGOES
RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN
THE REASONING. INTENSITY WISE...ALMOST ALL THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY NOW
STRENGTHEN A TUTT THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
CENTRAL PRUDENTIA. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...AND
A RATHER QUICKER WEAKENING THAN LAST ADVISORY IS SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/0300H
 INITIAL... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 35 KT 
19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT 
20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT 
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT 
21/0300H... 08.8 N 00.5 E... 55 KT 
22/0300H... 11.6 N 00.5 W... 55 KT 
23/0300H... 14.5 N 00.4 W... 40 KT

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... NEAR 5.7 NORTH 4.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT NEAR 2 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY
0935 HPT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 0630 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW05 FOLN 190320
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 3:20 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         5
POSITION:           5.7N 4.9E
ACCURACY:           20NM
MOVEMENT:           NW 12KT
CENT PRES:          995HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     6.3N 4.0E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 19 2146=

Intermediate advisory 5A

TCIA5 WHCO 190605
TROPICAL STORM KANTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 5A
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
6 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...KANTA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED MUCH AS IT PARALLELS THE INEPTIAN
COAST...

AT 6 AM...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ 
EASTWARDS TO THE LA PLAGE COAST AT 6 DEG E. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.

AT 6 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 5.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.7 EAST...ABOUT 130 KM OR 80 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT BORDER.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H...
14 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING
LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 170 KM...105 MILES FROM
THE CENTRE.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS 995 HPA...29.38 INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ST. DENIS REPORTED A TOTAL OF 60 MM OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.

NOTE...A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WHICH ENTERED THE STORM ABOUT AN HOUR
AGO IS STILL IN THE STORM AND INVESTIGATING IT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
SO FAR ARE IN THE MID- TO HIGH- 40S /KNOTS/ RANGE. THE PLANE REPORTED
SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KNOTS OVER LAND NEAR THE LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCIAL BORDER...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1001 HPA. SINCE THEN
THE PRESSURES HAVE STARTED TO FALL...WITH THE LATEST REPORT OF 995 HPA.
BY THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY PACKAGE...WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
THE STORM'S STRUCTURE AND ITS INTENSITY.

REPEATING THE 6 AM HPT POSITION...NEAR 5.8 N 4.7 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. KANTA IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY
BY 0935 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

Advisory 6

TCAD5 WHCO 190945
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 6
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
9 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...KANTA STRENGTHENS AS IT STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM INEPTIAN COAST...

AT 9 AM HPT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LA PLAGE PROVINCE IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO
THE LA PLAGE PROVINCIAL BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS...OR ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KANTA HAS FOUND
A RELATIVELY STRONGER TROPICAL STORM THAN EXPECTED. MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS WERE 56 KNOTS...IGNORING ONE 61 KT QUESTIONABLE REPORT...
WHILE A SONDE OB CAME BACK AT 44 KNOTS. SO...INITIAL INTENSITY IS
UPPED TO 45 KNOTS...RATHER EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE AIRPLANE ALSO
FOUND THAT THE WIND RADIUS OF 34 KNOT WINDS WAS RATHER LARGE...WHICH
WAS A SURPRISE...GIVEN THE APPARENT SIZE OF THE STORM ON SATELLITE.
THEREFORE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG HAS ALSO BECOME APPARENT...AND INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/15.

AT 9 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS REPORTED BY
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.0 NORTH LONGITUDE
4.4 EAST...ABOUT 210 KM OR 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE PROVINCIAL
BORDER AT LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H...
17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
EXISTS.

THE SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM NINE HOURS AGO HAS BEEN PROVED RIGHT AS THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A SLIGHTLY LARGER WIND FIELD. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM THE
CENTRE.

THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ST. DENIS REPORTED ABOUT 60 MM...2.4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS.

SINCE THE STORM HAS APPARENTLY GAINED QUITE A BIT OF STRENGTH IT IS TIME
TO LOOK AT THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT-TERM. SOME FURTHER
RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH 
WOULD COMPLICATE THE TRACK FORECAST FURTHER. I HAVE ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE LEFT/SOUTHWEST OF THE OLD ONE...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING
COULD MEAN THE STORM BREAKING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOVING ON A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PRUDENTIA BREAKS...NO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE
TERM AND THE STORM WILL START TO TRACK NORTHWARD. A TUTT IS THEN FORECAST
BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP...AND STRENGTHEN...WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF OUTFLOW
AND WEAKEN THE STORM CONSIDERABLY. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF THESE MODELS
SHOW ENOUGH OF A LACK OF STEERING CURRENTS BY THEN...FOR KANTA TO EXECUTE 
A SLOW 360-DEGREE LOOP. IT WILL BE WATCHED FOR IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. FOR
NOW...IN THE OUTLOOK...WILL SHIFT WEAKENING STORM TOWARDS THE GRAYS HARBOR
COAST.

INTENSITY WISE... WILL KEEP TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN SHORT RUN...WITH
STRENGTHENING TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 OR 72 HOURS. I DO NOT
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...BUT FUTURE FORECASTS MAY BE CLEARER. WEAKENING IS SHOWN PAST
72 HOURS...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.

IF THE CURRENT MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT CONTINUES...ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED BY TONIGHT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/0900H
 INITIAL... 06.0 N 04.4 E... 45 KT 
19/2100H... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 45 KT 
20/0900H... 07.1 N 02.1 E... 45 KT 
20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.1 E... 50 KT 
21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT 
22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 50 KT 
23/0900H... 15.0 N 00.3 E... 35 KT

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 6.0 NORTH 4.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM
WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 1230 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW05 FOLN 190940
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         6
POSITION:           6.0N 4.4E
ACCURACY:           20NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 15KT
CENT PRES:          993HPA
MAX WIND:           45KT
MAX GUST:           55KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     6.4N 3.3E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 19 2146=

Intermediate advisory 6A

TCIA5 WHCO 191215
TROPICAL STORM KANTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 6A
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
12 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN KANTA AS IT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM
INEPTIAN COAST...
...PORTIONS OF THE COAST STILL RECEIVING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CÔTE D'ARGENT
COAST FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS. THIS WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.

AT 12 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 6.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.2 EAST...ABOUT 450 KM OR 280 MI SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PEACETOWN INEPTIA.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H...
17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TO THE WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
EXISTS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM
THE CENTRE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR THE COAST IN EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF CÔTE D'ARGENT
COULD BE NEAR TWO INCHES.

OTHER REPORTED RAINFALL TOTALS...

ST. DENIS...................65MM...2.6IN IN 24 HOURS UP TO 9 AM HPT TODAY
BORDER WITH CÔTE D'ARGENT...55MM...2.2IN IN 24 HOURS UP TO 9 AM HPT TODAY
BERLITZ.....................15MM...0.6IN IN 24 HOURS UP TO 9 AM HPT TODAY

REPEATING THE 12 PM POSITION... NEAR 6.1 NORTH 4.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. TROPICAL STORM KANTA
IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY
AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER JOHNSON

Advisory 7

TCAD5 WHCO 191520
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 7
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
3 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...EFFECTS OF KANTA GRADUALLY DYING DOWN OVER SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA...

TROPICAL STORM KANTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...AND SOME RAIN...NEAR THE COAST IN EXTREME EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL LESSEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ EAST TO THE
PROVINCIAL BORDER WITH LA PLAGE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FINAL EFFECTS OF THE STORM PASS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/3.5 FROM AFLE...T3.0/3.0 FROM HDCW...AND NO APPARENT
CHANGE IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WHEN THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KNOT WINDS. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...295/15 BASED ON CONTINUITY. THE NEXT...AND FINAL...
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED...FOR NOW...INTO KANTA IS CURRENTLY
EN ROUTE. THE PLANE'S MAIN AIM WILL BE TO DETERMINE WIND RADII...SO
AS SOON AS A FAVOURABLE REPORT IS RETURNED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR INEPTIA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED.

AT 3 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS REPORTED BY
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.2 NORTH LONGITUDE
3.9 EAST...ABOUT 450 KM OR 280 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEACETOWN INEPTIA.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H...
17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...AND A MORE NORTHWARD TURN IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
EXISTS.

THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED SLIGHTLY AND THE CONVECTIVE MASS
IS NOW MUCH MORE TIGHT. THIS MAY MEAN A REDUCTION IN WIND RADII...AND
THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO FIND OUT. PROVISIONALLY...
USING THE LATEST SCATT PASS THAT CAPTURED THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF THE
STORM...WHICH SHOW SOME BELIEVABLE 30 KNOT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE INEPTIAN
COAST...WILL HOLD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII AS SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE COAST MAY HAVE BEEN MISSED...OR RAIN MARRED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM 
THE CENTRE OF THE STORM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES BEING MADE AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST TRACK. SHOULD
THE STORM STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE NEXT ADVISORY...A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION...AWAY FROM THE INEPTIAN COAST...MAY BE IN STORE.

SOME MODELS STILL HAVE KANTA...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT BY THEN IF IT
WEAKENS ENOUGH...EXECUTING AN ANTICLOCKWISE 360 DEGREE LOOP NEAR 15N. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

STILL...WITH NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST
A HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS SHOWN PAST 48 HOURS...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/1500H
 INITIAL... 06.2 N 03.9 E... 45 KT 
20/0300H... 06.8 N 02.7 E... 45 KT 
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.6 E... 50 KT 
21/0300H... 08.7 N 00.6 E... 55 KT 
21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT 
22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 50 KT 
23/1500H... 15.6 N 00.6 E... 30 KT

REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 6.2 NORTH 3.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 PM
HPT. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED FOR 630 PM HPT...BUT IF WARNINGS ARE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...THE WARNING CANCELLATION WILL SUPERSEDE THE INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY. 

FORECASTER JOHNSON

TCTW05 FOLN 191520
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 3:20 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        1500H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         7
POSITION:           6.2N 3.9E
ACCURACY:           20NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 15KT
CENT PRES:          993HPA
MAX WIND:           45KT
MAX GUST:           55KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     6.8N 2.7E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 19 2146=

Intermediate advisory 7A

TCIA5 WHCO 191830
TROPICAL STORM KANTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 7A
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
6 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT AS PRECAUTION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE CÔTE D'ARGENT
EAST OF BERLITZ. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED TONIGHT.

AT 6 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 6.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 3.6 EAST...ABOUT 195 KM...120 MILES
OFF THE COAST OF INEPTIA...ABOUT 775 KM...485 MILES SOUTH OF
BERLITZ.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 30 KM/H...
18 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM TURNS SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES
FROM THE STORM CENTRE...MOSTLY TO THE EAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY.

REPEATING THE 6 PM POSITION...6.3 N 3.6 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 85 KM/H. KANTA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 30 KM/H. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 HPA.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY 
AT 9 PM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

Advisory 8

TCAD5 WHCO 192130
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 8
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
9 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...KANTA STRENGTHENS TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE INEPTIAN COAST...

AT 9 PM HPT...ALL WARNINGS FOR INEPTIA ARE DISCONTINUED.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE STORM'S WIND-
FIELD FOUND BELIEVABLE 54 KNOT SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM AT AROUND 8 PM. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...T3.0/3.5 FROM AFLE AND T3.5/3.5 FROM HDCW...ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. THIS RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT...WHICH IS THE LAST ONE SCHEDULED AS THE STORM NOW DOES NOT
POSE A LAND THREAT...ALSO FOUND A PRESSURE OF 989 HPA...WHICH MAY
SUGGEST THAT SOME RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD BE TAKING PLACE. THE
RECON FLIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR A FEW HOURS TO CONTINUE MONITORING
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...INITIAL MOTION IS 300/19.

AT 9 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 6.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 3.3 EAST...ABOUT 1000 KM...625 MI
SOUTH OF PORT DU POIVRE INEPTIA.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
30 KM/H...18 MPH...BUT A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED...AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IF KANTA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
AT A RAPID PACE AS FORECAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 KM/H...65 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND KANTA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 KM...115 MILES
FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECORDED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT WAS 989 HPA...29.20 INCHES OF MERCURY.

THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT...ORIGINALLY
SCHEDULED TO END AT 1030 PM HPT...HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 330 AM HPT
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STORM AS IT UNDERGOES WHAT COULD BE SOME
RAPID STRENGTHENING. AS SUCH...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE
TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TAKE A MORE
WESTERLY COURSE...WELL AWAY FROM LAND. HOWEVER...IN THE LONG TERM
THIS MAKES THE TRACK FORECAST A BIT DIFFICULT...WHETHER THE STORM
WILL IMPACT CARITAS...OR GRAYS HARBOR.

ON THIS NEW FORECAST TRACK THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER AN
AREA OF 5 TO 10 KNOT SHEAR AS WELL AS 29 TO 30 DEG C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD CAUSE EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION. IT IS
NOW FORECAST TO CROSS THE PAX LINE AT A LOWER LATITUDE...AND WILL
NOT RECURVE AS EARLY...IF AT ALL. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE 96
HOUR FORECAST POINT WILL SHOW SOME RECURVATURE.

IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...ASSUMING RAPID STRENGTHENING...HAVE GONE
FOR A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH SOME TIME ON THE MORNING OF THE 21ST AS IT PASSES OVER
THE ABOVEMENTIONED FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. SINCE THE MODELS STILL
CALL FOR A TUTT CELL TO DEVELOP IN THE LONG RUN...RAPID WEAKENING
BEYOND 48 HOURS IS POSSIBLE...AND THE 96 HOUR FORECAST IS AS A
MINIMAL CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE
TRACK...AND INTENSITY...FORECASTS BEYOND 48 HOURS.

HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STATIONED IN
SCHTOOPSTADT WILL BEGIN RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE STORM STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/2100H
 INITIAL... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 55 KT 
20/0900H... 06.8 N 01.9 E... 70 KT 
20/2100H... 07.5 N 00.7 E... 85 KT 
21/0900H... 08.5 N 00.5 W...100 KT 
21/2100H... 10.0 N 01.9 W...105 KT 
22/2100H... 12.2 N 01.7 W... 85 KT 
23/2100H... 14.5 N 00.6 W... 65 KT

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION...NEAR 6.4 NORTH 3.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 100 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 30 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM
HPT.  

FORECASTER JOHNSON/LAVAL

TCTW05 FOLN 192130
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        2100H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         8
POSITION:           6.4N 3.3E
ACCURACY:           15NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 19KT
CENT PRES:          989HPA
MAX WIND:           55KT
MAX GUST:           65KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     6.8N 1.9E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    70KT G85KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H JUNE 20 2146=

Tropical cyclone update

TCUP5 WHCO 200050 
HURRICANE KANTA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
12:50 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146

LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
KANTA INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 120 KM/H...75 MPH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE MEASURED WAS 985 HPA...29.09 INCHES OF MERCURY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 KM...10 MILES FROM THE
CENTRE.

FORECASTER JOHNSON/LAVAL

Advisory 9

TCAD5 WHCO 200330
HURRICANE KANTA ADVISORY 9
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
3 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146

...KANTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AWAY FROM THE INEPTIAN COAST...

AS I TYPE THIS...THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KANTA IS
WRAPPING UP ITS FINAL FLIGHT INTO THE STORM. CIVILIAN RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHTS BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR
FORCE'S FLIGHTS...AND TIMELY INFORMATION FROM THESE FLIGHTS...HAVE
HELPED GREATLY IN MONITORING APPARENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE
KANTA.

BASED ON LATEST DATA...INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS...THIS
COULD BE A BIT ON THE LOW END. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...INITIAL MOTION
IS 305/17.

AT 3 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE KANTA WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 2.6 EAST...ABOUT 450 KM...
280 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERLITZ INEPTIA.

HURRICANE KANTA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 32 KM/H...20 MPH. A
NORTHWESTERLY TURN IS EXPECTED SOME TIME IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 KM/H...80 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KANTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. FURTHER RAPID STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 225 KM...140 MILES...AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 KM...15 MILES...FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECORDED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT WAS 983 HPA...29.03 INCHES OF MERCURY.

THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT HAS NOT BEEN EXTENDED
FURTHER AND IS NOW OVER. THANKS TO TIMELY DATA PROVIDED WE HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO MONITOR THE RATHER UNEXPECTED SUDDEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM...
AND MANY THANKS FROM THE HHPC TO THEM.

HURRICANE KANTA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND ONLY POSITIVE
CONDITIONS AWAIT THIS MONSTER STORM. IT IS THANKFUL THAT THERE IS NO LAND
IN THE WAY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A VERY POWERFUL
KILLER. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT IT IS USEFUL
TO NOTE THAT IN THE LONG TERM PAST THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK...
SINCE LESS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN EARLY RECURVE. IN THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
MODEL RUNS THIS SHOULD BECOME MUCH CLEARER.

AS MENTIONED...ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THERE ARE VERY FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE STORM. SHEAR IS MINIMAL...AND 10 KNOTS AT MOST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE A VERY HELPFUL 28 TO 29 DEGREES C...WITH AN EDDY OF 30 TO
31 DEGREES C SST LYING AHEAD OF THE STORM SOME TIME TOMORROW MORNING. AS
THE STORM IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...IF IT STILL IS AT THAT POINT
IN TIME...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A CATEGORY FIVE STORM...SOMETHING THAT AT
NO POINT EARLIER ON WE EVER EXPECTED. FOR THIS FORECAST...I'M NOT GOING TO
BE TOO BULLISH JUST YET...BUT WILL REFLECT A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR STORM FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP...BUT IF
THE STORM IS STILL AT A FAIRLY LOW LATITUDE AND WESTERLY LONGITUDE WHEN THIS
HAPPENS...THE TUTT COULD ACTUALLY ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE SYSTEM...
INSTEAD OF CAUSING STRONG SHEAR. THIS IN TURN COULD MEAN MORE TIME SPENT
AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. INDEED...ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE 96 HOUR
FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 65 KNOTS TO 70 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE CLEARER.

HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STATIONED IN SCHTOOPSTADT WILL
BEGIN RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE STORM STARTING THIS MORNING.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...20/0300H
 INITIAL... 06.6 N 02.6 E... 70 KT 
20/1500H... 07.2 N 01.3 E... 90 KT 
21/0300H... 08.1 N 00.0 E...105 KT 
21/1500H... 09.3 N 01.2 W...125 KT 
22/0300H... 10.6 N 02.0 W...120 KT 
23/0300H... 12.8 N 01.4 W... 90 KT 
24/0300H... 15.0 N 00.1 W... 70 KT

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...NEAR 6.6 NORTH 2.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 130 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT NEAR 32 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM
HPT.  

FORECASTER JARVINEN/HUNTER

TCTW05 FOLN 200330
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED BY HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
ISSUED 3:30 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 20 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA/WHCO
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         9
POSITION:           6.6N 2.6E
ACCURACY:           10NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 17KT
CENT PRES:          984HPA
MAX WIND:           70KT
MAX GUST:           85KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     7.2N 1.3E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    90KT G110KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 20 2146=
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