TD06 (2145)/Past
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Tropical Depression Six
Advisory 1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (4506) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME... 9 PM HPT... 7 PM PAX... MAR 3 2145 RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE FORMATION OF A CIRCULATION... IN AN OUTER BAND OF TROPICAL STORM RUVA'S THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS ENOUGH CONVECTION... AND IS THUS DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. THE AFLE MODEL... WHICH FORECAST THE FORMATION OF THIS STORM... ESTIMATES THIS SYSTEM AT AROUND 28–33 KT... AND THUS FOR THIS ADVISORY THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. THE AFLE MODEL FORECASTS THIS DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... AND POSSIBLY ... ALMOST IRRATIONALLY... A HURRICANE... BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY BEHIND RUVA ON THE WESTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST. AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT... THE FORMATION OF THIS STORM MAKES IT REDUNDANT. HOWEVER... THE CYCLONESVILLE WARNING SUB-BUREAU HAS STRENUOUSLY SUGGESTED IMPLEMENTING HURRICANE WATCHES... AND THE MSHPC HAS DECIDED TO ISSUE HURRICANE WATCHES FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY... TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH. AT 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KM/H ... 35 MPH... GUSTING TO 45 KT. MIN SLP IS 1002 HPA... 75.23 CMHG OR 29.62 INHG... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KT... 40 KM/H... 25 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WILL BE RELEASED AT 12 AM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABADDON (4506) ADVISORY 009... SPECIAL ADVISORY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 9 PM HPT... 10 PM LST MAR 5 2145 CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION... AFTER SOME DISCUSSION... IT WAS DETERMINED THAT A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTRE CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY 1000 KM SOUTHWEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS WAS A REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABADDON. AS SUCH... THIS CIRCULATION RETAINS THE NAME... ABADDON... AND THE DESIGNATED STORM NUMBER... 4506. WHILE THE CENTRE OF ABADDON DISSIPATED OVER THE PEARSON MOUNTAINS... A SMALL SECTION OF THE OUTER CONVECTION BANDS BROKE AWAY AND MOVED RAPIDLY NORTH, AVOIDING DISSIPATION. AS SUCH... AS THIS IS PART OF THE SAME SYSTEM... THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE NAME ABADDON. DVORAK READINGS SUGGEST A T-NUMBER OF 1.0 OR 1.5... AND THE UHWF MODEL CONTENDS THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 23 KNOTS... WHILE THE HEARTLAND DATA COLLECTION CENTRE FOR WEATHER REPORTS... THE HDCW... SUBMITTED A REPORT TO THE MSHPC ESTIMATING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18 KNOTS. AS SUCH... FOR THIS ADVISORY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 20 KNOTS... 40 KM/H. AT 10 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABADDON LOCATED 1000 KM... 625 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM... AND IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KM/H OR 25 MPH... GUSTING TO 55 KM/H. EXTENDED FORECAST... LOCATION DISTANCE IN KM INITIAL... 1000 SW PEARSON CLIFFS... 20 KT 6 HOURS... 995 SW PEARSON CLIFFS... 25 KT 12 HOURS... 980 SW PEARSON CLIFFS... 25 KT 24 HOURS... 965 SW PEARSON CLIFFS... 30 KT...INLAND 36 HOURS... 890 W PEARSON CLIFFS... 35 KT...OVER WATER 48 HOURS... 890 W PEARSON CLIFFS... 40 KT 72 HOURS... ABSORBED BY SYSTEM 4507 YURI THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT... 4 AM LOCAL TIME. FORECASTER HUNTER
Tropical Storm Abaddon
Advisory 2
TROPICAL STORM ABADDON (4506) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 10 PM PAX MAR 3... 12 AM HPT... MAR 4 2145 12:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY... NOW A TROPICAL STORM... ABADDON... NAME SUBMITTED BY LAUDO DEO. REMAINING NAMES ON THE MAIN 14-NAME LIST INCLUDE YURI... GYARNIFQ... OREN... NITSCHKE... GRIEL... MIRSCQY... ARAES AND LINAS. THE AFLE MODEL FORECASTS A CATEGORY 1 65-KT HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS... AND THE UHWF GENERALLY SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT... FORECASTING A 70-KT HURRICANE IN 24 HRS. THE OFFICIAL MSHPC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT... WITH A FORECAST TO BECOME A 70-KT HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS... HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH OF THE CITY. AT 12:30 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM ABADDON HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KM/H ... 45 MPH... GUSTING TO 50 KT. MIN SLP IS 1000 HPA... 75.00 CMHG OR 29.54 INHG... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 17 KT... 31 KM/H... 19 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM ABADDON WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 8
TROPICAL STORM ABADDON (4506) FINAL ADVISORY 008 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 6 PM HPT... 7 PM LST MAR 4 2145 ABADDON HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM... AND IS NOW LOCATED 40 KM NORTH OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM. AN UNEXPECTED EASTWARDS TURN HAS OCCURED... AND ABADDON HAS THEREFORE MADE LANDFALL... ESTIMATED TIME OF LANDFALL WAS 7 PM LOCAL TIME... FIVE MINUTES AGO. ABADDON IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER THE PEARSON MOUNTAINS... AND THEREFORE... THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM ABADDON FROM THE MSHPC. INITIAL INTENSITY AT THIS TIME IS SET AT 60 KT. HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM LOYALTY BAY NORTH TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH OF THE CITY... THESE WILL SOON BE DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 250 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY NORTH TO 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY HAVE ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOUR DEATHS REPORTED FROM SYSTEM... BRINGING THE COMBINED TOTAL OF RUVA AND ABADDON TO SEVEN SO FAR. AT 7 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM ABADDON LOCATED 40 KM... 25 MILES... NORTH OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM... HAVING MADE LANDFALL... AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER THE PEARSON MTNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KM/H... 70 MPH... GUSTING TO 70 KT. MIN SLP IS 986 HPA... ABADDON MOVING EAST AT 25 KM/H... 15 MPH. EXTENDED FORECAST... LOCATION DISTANCE IN KM INITIAL... 40 N LOYALTY BAY... 60 KT... LANDFALL 3 HOURS... 85 NE LOYALTY BAY... 40 KT... DISSIPATING 6 HOURS... DISSIPATED. THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM. CONTACT YOUR LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. FORECASTER HUNTER
Hurricane Abaddon
Advisory 3
HURRICANE ABADDON (4506) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... MAR 4 2145 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 LATEST DATA RECEIVED FROM SHIPS AS WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT ABADDON HAS FORMED AN EYE... AND THUS INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 65 KT... MAKING ABADDON A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... THE SECOND OF THE SEASON. THE HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH OF THE CITY... HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS. AT 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME... HURRICANE ABADDON LOCATED 395 KM... 245 MILES... NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM... AND HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 KM/H... 75 MPH... GUSTING TO 70 KT. MIN SLP IS 983 HPA... 73.72 CMHG OR 29.03 INHG... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KT... 22 KM/H... 14 MPH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST... INITIAL... 395 NW LOYALTY BAY... 65 KT... CAT 1 12 HOURS... 155 WNW LOYALTY BAY... 80 KT... CAT 1 24 HOURS... 10 S LOYALTY BAY... 50 KT... INLAND 36 HOURS... 55 N LENITA... 35 KT... DISSIPATING 48 HOURS... DISSIPATED THE NEXT ADVISORY ON HURRICANE ABADDON WILL BE RELEASED AT 6 AM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 4
HURRICANE ABADDON (4506) ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 4 AM PAX... 6 AM HPT... MAR 4 2145 6:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 THE LATEST ANALYSES OF DATA WE HAVE RECEIVED SUPPORTS THE SUGGESTION THAT ABADDON IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION... AND THUS I SHALL UPGRADE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY TO 75 KT... 135 KM/H. ABADDON IS NOW MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECASTED TRACK... AS SUCH ... TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED. THE HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH OF THE CITY. AS ABADDON IS A BIG SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FELT UP TO 350 KM FROM THE CENTRE... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN INITIATED FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 250 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY NORTH TO 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY. AT 6:30 AM LOCAL TIME... HURRICANE ABADDON LOCATED 320 KM... 200 MILES... NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM... AND HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 135 KM/H... 85 MPH... GUSTING TO 85 KT. MIN SLP IS 975 HPA... 73.13 CMHG OR 28.79 INHG... MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KT... 22 KM/H... 14 MPH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST... INITIAL... 320 NW LOYALTY BAY... 75 KT... CAT 1 3 HOURS... 250 NNW LOYALTY BAY... 85 KT... CAT 2 6 HOURS... 165 NNW LOYALTY BAY... 85 KT... CAT 2 9 HOURS... 110 NW LOYALTY BAY... 80 KT... CAT 1 12 HOURS... 60 NW LOYALTY BAY... 75 KT... CAT 1 15 HOURS... 10 N LOYALTY BAY... 50 KT... LANDFALL 24 HOURS... 50 N LENITA... 35 KT... DISSIPATING 36 HOURS... DISSIPATED THE NEXT ADVISORY ON HURRICANE ABADDON WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 AM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 5
HURRICANE ABADDON (4506) ADVISORY 005 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... MAR 4 2145 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 ABADDON HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION... AND LATEST DVORAK NUMBERS... AS WELL AS MODEL ANALYSES... WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS... AND SSTS ANALYSIS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF HURRICANE ABADDON IS INCREASED FROM 75 KT TO 85 KT... MAKING ABADDON A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE... BUT WILL NOT BE AS RAPID AS ABADDON STARTS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS DEVOID OF ENERGY IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM RUVA... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS... PEAKING ABADDON AS A 90-KT HURRICANE... IN THREE HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ABADDON IS NOW MORE POWERFUL THAN VEIRU WAS IN FEBURARY... AND VEIRU IS THE DEADLIEST TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MODERN RECORDED HEARTLAND HISTORY. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH OF THE CITY. AS ABADDON IS A BIG SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FELT UP TO 400 KM FROM THE CENTRE... LOYALTY BAY IS NOW REPORTING EFFECTS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM WINDS... A DOUBLE-WHAMMY AFTER RUVA JUST HOURS EARLIER. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 250 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY NORTH TO 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY... HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ... AS WELL AS HURRICANE WATCHES. AT 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME... HURRICANE ABADDON LOCATED 250 KM... 155 MILES... NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM... AND HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 KM/H... 100 MPH... GUSTING TO 95 KT. MIN SLP IS 970 HPA... 72.75 CMHG OR 28.64 INHG... MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 13 KT... 24 KM/H... 15 MPH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST... INITIAL... 250 NNW LOYALTY BAY... 85 KT... CAT 2 3 HOURS... 175 NW LOYALTY BAY... 90 KT... CAT 2 6 HOURS... 115 WNW LOYALTY BAY... 85 KT... CAT 2 9 HOURS... 70 NW LOYALTY BAY... 75 KT... CAT 1 12 HOURS... 30 N LOYALTY BAY... 65 KT... CAT 1 LANDFALL 18 HOURS... OVER LOYALTY MTNS... 45 KT... DISSIPATING 24 HOURS... 100 NW LENITA... 25 KT... DISSIPATED... HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED THE NEXT ADVISORY ON HURRICANE ABADDON WILL BE RELEASED AT 12 PM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 6
HURRICANE ABADDON (4506) ADVISORY 006 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 10 AM PAX... 12 PM HPT... 12:30 PM LST MAR 4 2145 ABADDON HAS REACHED A LIKELY PEAK WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS... AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY IN COOL WATERS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. THE FOLLOWING MODELS PEAK ABADDON AT HIGHER THAN A 90 KT INTENSITY... AFLE 100 KT CAT 3... 1200HPT... WHICH THE MSHPC HAS NOT FOLLOWED UHWF 94 KT CAT 2... 1300HPT... WHICH MAY BE POSSIBLE... BUT WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN ANY MSHPC ADVISORY. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH OF THE CITY. AS ABADDON IS A BIG SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FELT UP TO 375 KM FROM THE CENTRE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS UP TO 200 KM FROM THE CENTRE... LOYALTY BAY IS REPORTING EFFECTS OF SUSTAINED MID-CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WINDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 250 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY NORTHWARDS TO 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY... HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR. SAME COASTLINE. AT 12:30 PM LOCAL TIME... HURRICANE ABADDON LOCATED 175 KM... 110 MILES... NORTH- NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM... AND HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 165 KM/H... 105 MPH... GUSTING TO 105 KT. MIN SLP IS 969 HPA... 72.68 CMHG OR 28.61 INHG... MOVING SOUTH AT 11 KT... 20 KM/H... 13 MPH. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE EXTENDED FORECAST... INITIAL... 175 NNW LOYALTY BAY... 90 KT... CAT 2 3 HOURS... 115 NW LOYALTY BAY... 80 KT... CAT 1 6 HOURS... 70 NW LOYALTY BAY... 65 KT... CAT 1 9 HOURS... 30 N LOYALTY BAY... 50 KT... LANDFALL 12 HOURS... OVER LOYALTY MTNS... 35 KT... DISSIPATING 24 HOURS... 80 NW LENITA... 20 KT... DISSIPATED. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON HURRICANE ABADDON WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 7
HURRICANE ABADDON (4506) ADVISORY 007 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LST MAR 4 2145 ABADDON HAS WEAKENED VERY QUICKLY OVER COLD WATERS AND QUITE STRONG UNEXPECTED WIND SHEAR... WHICH MAY HELP LESSEN ITS IMPACT... LANDFALL EXPECTED WITHIN FIVE HOURS... REPEAT... LANDFALL EXPECTED WITHIN FIVE HOURS. THE EXPECTED WEAKENING HAS COME AT A MUCH QUICKER PACE... AND ABADDON MIGHT WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER... TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE EFFECTS HAVE LONG BEEN FELT ON LAND... AND THIS WEAKENING MAY THEREFORE NOT MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE. HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH OF THE CITY. THREE DEATHS REPORTED FROM SYSTEM... BRINGING THE COMBINED TOTAL OF RUVA AND ABADDON TO SIX SO FAR. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 250 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY NORTHWARDS TO 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY... ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE DISCONTINUED SOON. THE HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME STRETCH OF COASTLINE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME... HURRICANE ABADDON LOCATED 140 KM... 87.5 MILES... NORTH OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 KM/H... 80 MPH... GUSTING TO 80 KT. MIN SLP IS 980 HPA... ABADDON MOVING SOUTH AT 35 KM/H... 20 MPH. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE HOURS AS A TROPICAL STORM... OR EVEN POSSIBLY A DEPRESSION. ABADDON IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH LENITA... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISSIPATES IT JUST SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY BAY. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON HURRICANE ABADDON WILL BE RELEASED AT 6 PM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER