Difference between revisions of "TD06 (2145)/Past"

Revision as of 02:35, 20 July 2006

Tropical Depression Six

Advisory 1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (4506) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
9:30 PM LOCAL TIME... 9 PM HPT... 7 PM PAX... MAR 3 2145

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE FORMATION OF A CIRCULATION... IN AN
OUTER BAND OF TROPICAL STORM RUVA'S THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS ENOUGH
CONVECTION... AND IS THUS DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. THE AFLE MODEL...
WHICH FORECAST THE FORMATION OF THIS STORM... ESTIMATES THIS SYSTEM AT AROUND
28–33 KT... AND THUS FOR THIS ADVISORY THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
30 KT.

THE AFLE MODEL FORECASTS THIS DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... AND POSSIBLY
... ALMOST IRRATIONALLY... A HURRICANE... BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY BEHIND
RUVA ON THE WESTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST.

AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT... THE FORMATION OF THIS STORM
MAKES IT REDUNDANT. HOWEVER... THE CYCLONESVILLE WARNING SUB-BUREAU HAS STRENUOUSLY
SUGGESTED IMPLEMENTING HURRICANE WATCHES... AND THE MSHPC HAS DECIDED TO ISSUE
HURRICANE WATCHES FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY...
TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH.

AT 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KM/H
... 35 MPH... GUSTING TO 45 KT. MIN SLP IS 1002 HPA... 75.23 CMHG OR 29.62 INHG...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KT... 40 KM/H... 25 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WILL BE RELEASED AT 12 AM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Tropical Storm Abaddon

Advisory 2

TROPICAL STORM ABADDON (4506) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
10 PM PAX MAR 3... 12 AM HPT... MAR 4 2145
12:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY... NOW A TROPICAL STORM...
ABADDON... NAME SUBMITTED BY LAUDO DEO.

REMAINING NAMES ON THE MAIN 14-NAME LIST INCLUDE YURI... GYARNIFQ... OREN...
NITSCHKE... GRIEL... MIRSCQY... ARAES AND LINAS.

THE AFLE MODEL FORECASTS A CATEGORY 1 65-KT HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS... AND THE
UHWF GENERALLY SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT... FORECASTING A 70-KT HURRICANE IN 24 HRS.

THE OFFICIAL MSHPC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 40 KT... WITH A FORECAST TO BECOME A 70-KT HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...

HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150 KM SOUTH
OF LOYALTY BAY TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH OF THE CITY.

AT 12:30 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM ABADDON HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KM/H
... 45 MPH... GUSTING TO 50 KT. MIN SLP IS 1000 HPA... 75.00 CMHG OR 29.54 INHG...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 17 KT... 31 KM/H... 19 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM ABADDON WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Hurricane Abaddon

Advisory 3

HURRICANE ABADDON (4506) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... MAR 4 2145
3:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4

LATEST DATA RECEIVED FROM SHIPS AS WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT ABADDON HAS FORMED AN EYE... AND THUS INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SET AT 65 KT... MAKING ABADDON A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... THE SECOND
OF THE SEASON.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150 KM SOUTH
OF LOYALTY BAY TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH OF THE CITY... HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE
WARNINGS.

AT 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME... HURRICANE ABADDON LOCATED 395 KM... 245 MILES... NORTHWEST
OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM... AND HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 KM/H...
75 MPH... GUSTING TO 70 KT. MIN SLP IS 983 HPA... 73.72 CMHG OR 29.03 INHG...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KT... 22 KM/H... 14 MPH.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
 INITIAL...  395  NW LOYALTY BAY... 65 KT... CAT 1
12 HOURS...  155 WNW LOYALTY BAY... 80 KT... CAT 1
24 HOURS...   10   S LOYALTY BAY... 50 KT... INLAND
36 HOURS...   55   N      LENITA... 35 KT... DISSIPATING
48 HOURS...  DISSIPATED

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON HURRICANE ABADDON WILL BE RELEASED AT 6 AM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 4

HURRICANE ABADDON (4506) ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
4 AM PAX... 6 AM HPT... MAR 4 2145
6:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4

THE LATEST ANALYSES OF DATA WE HAVE RECEIVED SUPPORTS THE SUGGESTION THAT
ABADDON IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION... AND THUS I SHALL UPGRADE
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY TO 75 KT... 135 KM/H. ABADDON IS
NOW MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECASTED TRACK... AS SUCH
... TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED.
 
THE HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150
KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH OF THE CITY. AS ABADDON IS A BIG
SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FELT UP TO 350 KM FROM THE CENTRE... 
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN INITIATED FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM
FROM 250 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY NORTH TO 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY.

AT 6:30 AM LOCAL TIME... HURRICANE ABADDON LOCATED 320 KM... 200 MILES...
NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM... AND HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
135 KM/H... 85 MPH... GUSTING TO 85 KT. MIN SLP IS 975 HPA... 73.13 CMHG OR
28.79 INHG...
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KT... 22 KM/H... 14 MPH.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
 INITIAL...  320  NW LOYALTY BAY... 75 KT... CAT 1
 3 HOURS...  250 NNW LOYALTY BAY... 85 KT... CAT 2
 6 HOURS...  165 NNW LOYALTY BAY... 85 KT... CAT 2
 9 HOURS...  110  NW LOYALTY BAY... 80 KT... CAT 1
12 HOURS...   60  NW LOYALTY BAY... 75 KT... CAT 1
15 HOURS...   10   N LOYALTY BAY... 50 KT... LANDFALL
24 HOURS...   50   N      LENITA... 35 KT... DISSIPATING
36 HOURS...  DISSIPATED

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON HURRICANE ABADDON WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 5

HURRICANE ABADDON (4506) ADVISORY 005
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... MAR 4 2145
9:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4

ABADDON HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION... AND LATEST DVORAK
NUMBERS... AS WELL AS MODEL ANALYSES... WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS... AND SSTS
ANALYSIS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF HURRICANE ABADDON IS INCREASED FROM 75 KT
TO 85 KT... MAKING ABADDON A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE... BUT WILL NOT BE AS RAPID AS
ABADDON STARTS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS DEVOID OF ENERGY IN THE WAKE OF
TROPICAL STORM RUVA... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS... PEAKING
ABADDON AS A 90-KT HURRICANE... IN THREE HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
ABADDON IS NOW MORE POWERFUL THAN VEIRU WAS IN FEBURARY... AND VEIRU IS
THE DEADLIEST TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MODERN RECORDED HEARTLAND HISTORY.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 150
KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY TO ABOUT 100 KM NORTH OF THE CITY. AS ABADDON IS A BIG
SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FELT UP TO 400 KM FROM THE CENTRE... 
LOYALTY BAY IS NOW REPORTING EFFECTS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM WINDS... A
DOUBLE-WHAMMY AFTER RUVA JUST HOURS EARLIER. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN
EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 250 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY NORTH
TO 150 KM SOUTH OF LOYALTY BAY... HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
... AS WELL AS HURRICANE WATCHES.

AT 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME... HURRICANE ABADDON LOCATED 250 KM... 155 MILES... NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM... AND HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
160 KM/H... 100 MPH... GUSTING TO 95 KT. MIN SLP IS 970 HPA... 72.75 CMHG OR
28.64 INHG...
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 13 KT... 24 KM/H... 15 MPH.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
 INITIAL...  250 NNW  LOYALTY BAY... 85 KT... CAT 2
 3 HOURS...  175  NW  LOYALTY BAY... 90 KT... CAT 2
 6 HOURS...  115 WNW  LOYALTY BAY... 85 KT... CAT 2
 9 HOURS...   70  NW  LOYALTY BAY... 75 KT... CAT 1
12 HOURS...   30   N  LOYALTY BAY... 65 KT... CAT 1 LANDFALL
18 HOURS...   OVER   LOYALTY MTNS... 45 KT... DISSIPATING
24 HOURS...  100  NW       LENITA... 25 KT... DISSIPATED... HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON HURRICANE ABADDON WILL BE RELEASED AT 12 PM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER