Difference between revisions of "TD2"

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|+ '''Current storm status'''
 
|+ '''Current storm status'''
 
|-
 
|-
−
! colspan="2" bgcolor="orange" | '''Hurricane Sandra''' ''(Category 3)''
+
! colspan="2" bgcolor="orange" | '''Hurricane Sandra''' ''(Category 4)''
 
|-
 
|-
 
| '''As of:'''
 
| '''As of:'''
−
! 1130 Eastern Probitas time [[Wikipedia:April 19|April 19]], [[Wikipedia:2139|2139]]
+
! 1600 Eastern Probitas time [[Wikipedia:April 19|April 19]], [[Wikipedia:2139|2139]]
 
|-
 
|-
 
| '''Location:'''  
 
| '''Location:'''  
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|-
 
|-
 
| '''Pressure:'''
 
| '''Pressure:'''
−
| 937 [[Wikipedia:Pascal|hPa/mbar]] (70.28 cmHg, 27.67 inHg)<!-- X 0.075 to cmHg, then /2.54 to inHg -->
+
| 933 [[Wikipedia:Pascal|hPa/mbar]] (69.98 cmHg, 27.55 inHg)<!-- X 0.075 to cmHg, then /2.54 to inHg -->
 
|-
 
|-
 
| '''Movement:'''
 
| '''Movement:'''
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|}
 
|}
 
----
 
----
−
<big>Hurricane Sandra Update</big>
+
<big>Hurricane Sandra Discussion</big>
−
  HURRICANE SANDRA (3904) UPDATE
+
  HURRICANE SANDRA (3904) DISCUSSION ADVISORY 001
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERV CYCLONE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERV CYCLONE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  [[Orean|OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]]
−
  11:30 AM EASTERN PROBITAS TIME APR 19 2139
+
  4 PM EASTERN PROBITAS TIME APR 19 2139
 
   
 
   
−
  ...SANDRA HAS REACHED CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH... HOWEVER, SANDRA HAS LEFT THE
+
  THE ONLY ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HEARTLAND AT THE MOMENT IS NOT WITHIN
−
  AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. AS SUCH, THE ADVISORY SCHEDULED FOR 9 PM TONIGHT
+
  THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE CYCLONE PREDICTION CENTRE'S
−
  ... HAS BEEN CANCELLED UNLESS SANDRA RE-ENTERS THE AOR BEFORE 8 PM.
+
  JURISDICTION AND THEREFORE A DISCUSSION IS ISSUED.
 
    
 
    
 
  PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL OR NATIONAL WEATHER OUTLET FOR [[Wikipedia:tropical cyclone warnings and watches|WARNINGS AND WATCHES]].
 
  PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL OR NATIONAL WEATHER OUTLET FOR [[Wikipedia:tropical cyclone warnings and watches|WARNINGS AND WATCHES]].
 
   
 
   
−
  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
+
  DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...REPORTED TO BE AT 933
−
  WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
+
  HECTOPASCALS BY A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE FLIGHT INTO THE EYE OF THE STORM
−
  WEATHER OFFICE.
+
  FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND HEARTLAND DEFENSE POST.
 
   
 
   
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 115 KNOTS... 215 KM/H OR 135 MPH... WHEN
+
  REPORTS FROM THE FLIGHT INDICATE THAT THIS LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA - ABOUT 250
−
SANDRA LEFT THE AOR... MAKING IT A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. WHILE IT IS EXTREMELY
+
NM IN DIAMETER - CENTRED OUTSIDE THE AOR... INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM...SANDRA...
−
  DANGEROUS, IT IS NOT FORECAST TO AFFECT LAND IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
+
HAS NOT GAINED NOR LOST INTENSITY SINCE THE FINAL UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 EPT.
−
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 937 HECTOPASCALS... 70.28 CENTIMETRES OF
+
−
  MERCURY... 27.67 INCHES.
+
THE ESTIMATED MOTION AT THIS TIME IS SET AT 220/08 - 220 DEG BEARING OR SOUTH-
 +
  WESTWARD AT NEAR 7 TO 8 KNOTS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK SANDRA SHOULD RE-ENTER
 +
THE AOR FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS SOON BEFORE RE-LEAVING IT.
 +
 +
THE SYSTEM IS NOT FACING HEAVY WIND SHEAR... CONTRIBUTING TO THE SUSTAINED
 +
STRENGTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... THE PREDICTION MODELS ALL ESTIMATE
 +
  SANDRA TO POSSIBLY REACH AN EXTREMELY RARE CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH.
 +
 +
FORECAST....DATE/LOCALTIME....ESTIMATED POSN....INTENSITY
 +
INITIAL......APR19/16..........OUTSIDE AOR....115KT...CAT4
 +
12HR.........APR20/04..........OUTSIDE AOR....120KT...CAT4
 +
24HR.........APR20/16..........OUTSIDE AOR....130KT...CAT4...TURNING NORTHWEST
 +
36HR.........APR21/04..........OUTSIDE AOR....130KT...CAT4...TURNING NORTH
 +
48HR.........APR21/16...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...140KT...CAT5...WILL START WEAKENING
 +
  72HR.........APR22/16...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...120KT...CAT4...HURRICANE WATCHES
 +
96HR.........APR23/16...IN AOR N OF S.CAPRN...100KT...CAT3...H WARN...TS WATCH
 +
120HR........APR24/16.........SW OF MIRAMAR....75KT...CAT1...INLAND
 
   
 
   
−
THE 9 PM ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED BUT WILL BE ISSUED IF SANDRA REENTERS THE
 
−
AOR BY 8 PM. ADVISORIES WILL OTHERWISE RESUME IF AND WHEN SANDRA REENTERS THE AOR.
 
−
AT 4 PM EASTERN PROBITAS TIME A DISCUSSION FOR HURRICANE SANDRA...THE FIRST EVER
 
−
TO BE RELEASED BY THE MSCPC... WILL BE ISSUED TRACKING SANDRA'S MOTION AND PATH
 
−
OVER 120 HOURS. THIS WILL ONLY BE RELEASED IF SANDRA REMAINS OUTSIDE THE AOR.
 
 
  ISSUED BY RINDLI
 
  ISSUED BY RINDLI
  
 
[[Category:Liverpool England tropical cyclones]]
 
[[Category:Liverpool England tropical cyclones]]

Revision as of 01:04, 27 November 2005

Current storm status
Hurricane Sandra (Category 4)
As of: 1600 Eastern Probitas time April 19, 2139
Location: Outside the LE AOR
Wind speed: 135 mph (215 km/h)
Pressure: 933 hPa/mbar (69.98 cmHg, 27.55 inHg)
Movement: Southwest at 8 mph (13 km/h)
See update below. Past advisories and discussions available here

Hurricane Sandra Discussion 

HURRICANE SANDRA (3904) DISCUSSION ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV CYCLONE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
4 PM EASTERN PROBITAS TIME APR 19 2139

THE ONLY ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HEARTLAND AT THE MOMENT IS NOT WITHIN
THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE CYCLONE PREDICTION CENTRE'S
JURISDICTION AND THEREFORE A DISCUSSION IS ISSUED.
 
PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL OR NATIONAL WEATHER OUTLET FOR WARNINGS AND WATCHES.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...REPORTED TO BE AT 933
HECTOPASCALS BY A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE FLIGHT INTO THE EYE OF THE STORM
FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND HEARTLAND DEFENSE POST.

REPORTS FROM THE FLIGHT INDICATE THAT THIS LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA - ABOUT 250
NM IN DIAMETER - CENTRED OUTSIDE THE AOR... INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM...SANDRA...
HAS NOT GAINED NOR LOST INTENSITY SINCE THE FINAL UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 EPT.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION AT THIS TIME IS SET AT 220/08 - 220 DEG BEARING OR SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT NEAR 7 TO 8 KNOTS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK SANDRA SHOULD RE-ENTER
THE AOR FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS SOON BEFORE RE-LEAVING IT.

THE SYSTEM IS NOT FACING HEAVY WIND SHEAR... CONTRIBUTING TO THE SUSTAINED
STRENGTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... THE PREDICTION MODELS ALL ESTIMATE
SANDRA TO POSSIBLY REACH AN EXTREMELY RARE CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH.

FORECAST....DATE/LOCALTIME....ESTIMATED POSN....INTENSITY
INITIAL......APR19/16..........OUTSIDE AOR....115KT...CAT4
12HR.........APR20/04..........OUTSIDE AOR....120KT...CAT4
24HR.........APR20/16..........OUTSIDE AOR....130KT...CAT4...TURNING NORTHWEST
36HR.........APR21/04..........OUTSIDE AOR....130KT...CAT4...TURNING NORTH
48HR.........APR21/16...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...140KT...CAT5...WILL START WEAKENING
72HR.........APR22/16...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...120KT...CAT4...HURRICANE WATCHES
96HR.........APR23/16...IN AOR N OF S.CAPRN...100KT...CAT3...H WARN...TS WATCH
120HR........APR24/16.........SW OF MIRAMAR....75KT...CAT1...INLAND

ISSUED BY RINDLI
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