Difference between revisions of "TD01 (2145)"

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{{Storm active|name=Tropical Storm Veiru
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{{Storm active|name=Tropical Depression Veiru
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|colour=storm
+
|colour=depression
−
|local time=1000
+
|local time=1300
 
|date=February 6
 
|date=February 6
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
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|location=385 km (240 miles) east of [[Portland, Dashake]]
+
|location=400 km (250 miles) west of [[Sealdre, Dashake]]
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|windmph=50
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|windmph=35
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|windkph=80
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|windkph=55
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|pressurehPa=988
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|pressurehPa=1001
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|cmHg=74.10
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|cmHg=75.08
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|inHg=29.17
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|inHg=29.56
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|direction=West
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|direction=Stationary
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|movemph=11
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|movemph=–
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|movekph=18
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|movekph=–
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
----
 
----
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<big>Tropical Storm Veiru Public Advisory</big>
+
<big>Tropical Depression Veiru Public Advisory</big>
−
  TROPICAL STORM VEIRU (4501) ADVISORY 009
+
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION VEIRU (4501) ADVISORY 010
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  [[Orean|OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] HEADQUARTERS
 
  [[Orean|OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] HEADQUARTERS
−
  10 AM LOCAL TIME ... 2 PM HPT FEB 6 2145
+
  1 PM LOCAL TIME ... 5 PM HPT FEB 6 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM VEIRU... DEADLIEST STORM IN MSHPC HISTORY... 121 REPORTED DEATHS
+
  TROPICAL STORM VEIRU... DEADLIEST STORM IN MSHPC HISTORY... WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL
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  ... BY FAR BREAKING THE OLD RECORD... [[Cyclone Donna|CYCLONE DONNA]]'S 40 FATALITIES.
+
  DEPRESSION AS EXPECTED... BUT HAS TURNED TO THE SOUTH AND EMERGED BACK OVER
−
  VEIRU'S FORWARD SPEED HAS REMAINED AT 11 MPH... STORM WEAKENING HAS ALSO SLOWED...
+
  OPEN WATERS. THESE WATERS ARE COOLER THAN THEY WERE DUE TO VEIRU'S WAKE... AND
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  HOWEVER... BY THE TIME IT RECHES PORTLAND... IN ABOUT 20 HOURS... IF IT CONTINUES
+
  SHOULD NOT BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A LOT OF DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THIS... VEIRU
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ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK... THE STORM SHOULD BE A DEPRESSION... OR SHOULD HAVE
+
  IS FORECAST TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR A SHORT WHILE.  
−
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER... OFFICIAL FORECASTS... AS WELL AS A GOOD NUMBER OF MODELS
+
−
  ... TAKE THIS STORM BACK OUT TO SEA... AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... THUS RETAINING
+
−
THE NAME VEIRU... RATHER THAN DISSIPATING IT.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A DIRECT HIT ON PORTLAND AS A
+
  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER EXPECTS A DIRECT HIT ON PORTLAND... AND
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25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION... HOWEVER, AS THERE IS A LARGE-ISH WATER SOURCE
+
  INSTEAD DISSIPATES IT VERY NEAR ITS CURRENT LOCATION... IN 48 HOURS. THIS COULD
−
  NEAR PORTLAND... FLOODING COULD BE DEVASTATING... AND THE WATER SOURCE COULD
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BRING A LOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA... AND HAMPER RELIEF EFFORTS. MUDSLIDES AND
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  CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA RATHER THAN
+
  LANDSLIDES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
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DYING OFF INLAND...
+
 
   
 
   
−
  HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE COKEKILAN ARMY BASE IN
+
  THE HURRICANE WATCHES N EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE COKEKILAN ARMY BASE IN
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  KINGKILA... AS WELL AS THE ISLAND OF THE ROYAL AIR FORCE BASE IN KINGKILA.
+
  KINGKILA... AS WELL AS THE ISLAND OF THE ROYAL AIR FORCE BASE IN KINGKILA...
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  HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT CONDITIONS NORMALLY EXPECTED OF AND IN A HURRICANE
+
  HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
−
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
 
  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
Line 45: Line 40:
 
  WEATHER OFFICE.
 
  WEATHER OFFICE.
 
   
 
   
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  AT 10 AM LOCAL TIME... 12 PM PAX TIME OR 2 PM HEARTLAND PRUDENTIA TIME... THE
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  AT 1 PM LOCAL TIME... 3 PM PAX TIME OR 5 PM HEARTLAND PRUDENTIA TIME... THE
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  CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM VEIRU WAS LOCATED OVERLAND... 385 KM... 240 MI... E OF
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  CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VEIRU WAS LOCATED OVER OPEN WATER... 400 KM...
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PORTLAND, DASHAKE... AND MOVING AT W AT 11 MPH OR 18 KM/H.
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250 MI... WEST OF SEALDRE, DASHAKE... AND THE STORM IS STATIONARY.
 
   
 
   
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KM/H... 50 MPH OR 45 KT... GUSTING TO 65 KT...
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  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... 35 MPH ... GUSTING TO 65 KM/H...
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  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 HPA... 74.10 CMHG OR 29.17 INHG.
+
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 HPA... 75.08 CMHG OR 29.56 INHG.
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION... 385 KM EAST OF PORTLAND AND MOVING WESTWARDS
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  THE STORM IS QUITE BIG IN DIAMETER... 450 KM... UNUSUALLY SO FOR A DEPRESSION
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AT 18 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KNOTS... 50 MPH... WITH HIGHER
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... BUT ITS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE GUSTS EXTEND OUTWARDS ONLY 20 MILES FROM ITS
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  GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA. STAY INSIDE SHELTER. HURRICANE
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  CENTRE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SIZE OF THIS STORM... RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
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  WATCHES IN EFFECT. HIGH COASTAL SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT. HIGH WIND AND ROUGH
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  CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTLAND AND SEALDRE... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES.
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SEAS ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
+
 
   
 
   
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  THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED AT 5 PM HPT... 1 PM LOCAL TIME.
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  REPEATING THE 1 PM FORECAST... 400 KM WEST OF SEALDRE AND STATIONARY. MAXIMUM
 +
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL
 +
PRESSURE 1001 HPA. NO ADVISORIES IN EFFECT... TORNADO WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED
 +
FOR PORTLAND SOON.
 
   
 
   
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  NEW PRODUCT RELEASED BY MSHPC... IN CONJUNCTION WITH FULL ADVISORIES...
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  THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED AT 8 PM HPT... 4 PM LOCAL TIME.
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OFFICIAL FORECAST OF LOCATION AND INTENSITY UP TO 96 HOURS... AS WELL AS THE
+
−
MAXIMUM FORECAST MADE BY ANY OTHER MODEL... (FCST) MEANS THAT THE FORECAST
+
−
FOLLOWS THE MAXIMUM SUGGESTED INTENSITY BY OTHER MODELS... OR THAT THE OFFICIAL
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−
FORECAST IS THE MAXIMUM SUGGESTED INTENSITY AGAINST ALL OTHER MODELS.
+
 
   
 
   
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  NOTE THAT A LANDFALL IS FORECAST ON THE ISLAND OF THE KINGKILAN RAFB... BUT
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  PRODUCT RELEASED BY MSHPC... IN CONJUNCTION WITH FULL ADVISORIES...
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  THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVELLING AT NEARLY 35 KM/H... OVER 20 MPH...
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  OFFICIAL FORECAST OF LOCATION AND INTENSITY UP TO 96 HOURS... AS WELL AS THE
−
AND THE TIME SPENT ON THE ISLAND IS THEREFORE NOT REFLECTED BELOW.
+
MAXIMUM FORECAST MADE BY ANY OTHER MODEL...
 
   
 
   
 
  HRS FROM ISSUE... FORECAST LOCATION (KM)... FCST INTENSITY.... MAX MODEL INT...
 
  HRS FROM ISSUE... FORECAST LOCATION (KM)... FCST INTENSITY.... MAX MODEL INT...
−
  12 HOURS.... 180 E OF PORTLAND, DASHAKE..... 60 KM/H - DEPR... 60 KM/H (FCST)
+
  12 HOURS.... 400 W OF SEALDRE, DASHAKE...... 65 KM/H - STORM.. 65 KM/H (FCST)
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  24 HOURS.... 200 SW OF PORTLAND, DASHAKE.... 60 KM/H - DEPR... 75 KM/H - STORM
+
  24 HOURS.... 400 W OF SEALDRE, DASHAKE...... 65 KM/H - STORM.. 70 KM/H - STORM
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  36 HOURS.... 480 NE OF COKEKILAN ARMY BASE.. 100 KM/H - STORM. 105 KM/H - STORM
+
  36 HOURS.... 400 W OF SEALDRE, DASHAKE...... 60 KM/H - DEPR... 70 KM/H - STORM
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  48 HOURS.... 180 N OF COKEKILAN ARMY BASE... 125 KM/H - CAT1.. 125 KM/H (FCST)
+
  48 HOURS.... DISSIPATING 400 W OF SEALDRE... 45 KM/H - DEPR... 60 KM/H - DEPR
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  72 HOURS.... 300 ENE OF KINGKEV NAVAL BASE.. 165 KM/H - CAT2.. 180 KM/H - CAT3
+
  72 HOURS.... DISSIPATED..................... 35 KM/H - DEPR... 55 KM/H - DEPR
−
  96 HOURS.... 75 W OF KINGKEV NAVAL BASE..... 125 KM/H - CAT1.. 210 KM/H - CAT4
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  96 HOURS.... ............................... ................. DISSIPATED
 
   
 
   
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  FURTHER BEYOND 96 HOURS... STORM IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHWEST BEYOND THE KINGKEV
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  FURTHER BEYOND 96 HOURS... SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED. NO LONGER POSING A
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NAVAL BASE... TOWARDS CAMPECHE AND OAXACA... WITH LANDFALL POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM
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  THREAT TO COKEKILAN ALLIANCE OR MEXICO-T.
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  TAMPICO TO MÉRIDA. PREPARATIONS SHOULD START... BUT EVACUATIONS COULD CAUSE
+
−
LOGISTICAL PROBLEMS AS THE STORM IS STILL FAR AWAY.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  FORECASTED BY JOHNSON/CALTS/HARDING/RYAN
 
  FORECASTED BY JOHNSON/CALTS/HARDING/RYAN

Revision as of 02:36, 13 June 2006

Current storm status
Tropical Depression Veiru
As of: 1300 local time February 6, 2145
Location: 400 km (250 miles) west of Sealdre, Dashake
Winds: 55 km/h (35 mph) ({{{windtype}}})
Pressure: 1001 hPa/mbar (75.08 cmHg, 29.56 inHg)
Movement: Stationary at – km/h (– mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here

Tropical Depression Veiru Public Advisory 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VEIRU (4501) ADVISORY 010
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND HEADQUARTERS
1 PM LOCAL TIME ... 5 PM HPT FEB 6 2145

TROPICAL STORM VEIRU... DEADLIEST STORM IN MSHPC HISTORY... WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AS EXPECTED... BUT HAS TURNED TO THE SOUTH AND EMERGED BACK OVER
OPEN WATERS. THESE WATERS ARE COOLER THAN THEY WERE DUE TO VEIRU'S WAKE... AND
SHOULD NOT BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A LOT OF DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THIS... VEIRU
IS FORECAST TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR A SHORT WHILE. 

THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER EXPECTS A DIRECT HIT ON PORTLAND... AND
INSTEAD DISSIPATES IT VERY NEAR ITS CURRENT LOCATION... IN 48 HOURS. THIS COULD
BRING A LOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA... AND HAMPER RELIEF EFFORTS. MUDSLIDES AND
LANDSLIDES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.

THE HURRICANE WATCHES N EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE COKEKILAN ARMY BASE IN
KINGKILA... AS WELL AS THE ISLAND OF THE ROYAL AIR FORCE BASE IN KINGKILA...
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM LOCAL TIME... 3 PM PAX TIME OR 5 PM HEARTLAND PRUDENTIA TIME... THE
CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VEIRU WAS LOCATED OVER OPEN WATER... 400 KM...
250 MI... WEST OF SEALDRE, DASHAKE... AND THE STORM IS STATIONARY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... 35 MPH ... GUSTING TO 65 KM/H...
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 HPA... 75.08 CMHG OR 29.56 INHG.

THE STORM IS QUITE BIG IN DIAMETER... 450 KM... UNUSUALLY SO FOR A DEPRESSION
... BUT ITS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE GUSTS EXTEND OUTWARDS ONLY 20 MILES FROM ITS
CENTRE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SIZE OF THIS STORM... RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTLAND AND SEALDRE... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1 PM FORECAST... 400 KM WEST OF SEALDRE AND STATIONARY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 1001 HPA. NO ADVISORIES IN EFFECT... TORNADO WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTLAND SOON.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED AT 8 PM HPT... 4 PM LOCAL TIME.

PRODUCT RELEASED BY MSHPC... IN CONJUNCTION WITH FULL ADVISORIES...
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF LOCATION AND INTENSITY UP TO 96 HOURS... AS WELL AS THE
MAXIMUM FORECAST MADE BY ANY OTHER MODEL...

HRS FROM ISSUE... FORECAST LOCATION (KM)... FCST INTENSITY.... MAX MODEL INT...
12 HOURS.... 400 W OF SEALDRE, DASHAKE...... 65 KM/H - STORM.. 65 KM/H (FCST)
24 HOURS.... 400 W OF SEALDRE, DASHAKE...... 65 KM/H - STORM.. 70 KM/H - STORM
36 HOURS.... 400 W OF SEALDRE, DASHAKE...... 60 KM/H - DEPR... 70 KM/H - STORM
48 HOURS.... DISSIPATING 400 W OF SEALDRE... 45 KM/H - DEPR... 60 KM/H - DEPR
72 HOURS.... DISSIPATED..................... 35 KM/H - DEPR... 55 KM/H - DEPR
96 HOURS.... ............................... ................. DISSIPATED

FURTHER BEYOND 96 HOURS... SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED. NO LONGER POSING A
THREAT TO COKEKILAN ALLIANCE OR MEXICO-T.

FORECASTED BY JOHNSON/CALTS/HARDING/RYAN
Retrieved from "http://archive.nswiki.org/index.php?title=TD01_(2145)&oldid=182806"