Difference between revisions of "Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones"

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(AO-Three)
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==AO-Two Allani-Dagon==
 
==AO-Two Allani-Dagon==
 
  AOTC LEMS HPCPH
 
  AOTC LEMS HPCPH
  HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON ADVISORY 004
+
  HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON ADVISORY 005
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
 
  MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
  TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 AM HPT JUNE 12, 2145
+
  TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT JUNE 12, 2145
 
  LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
 
  LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
 
   
 
   
  ALLANI/DAGON UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
+
  ALLANI/DAGON MAKES LANDFALL ON SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI...
 +
STILL A POTENT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
 
   
 
   
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
+
  HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE SMALL ISLAND.
  HURRICANE WARNINGS... HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS FOR
+
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT ON THE MAIN ISLAND FROM ASTRA NORTHWARD
ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR
+
TO KELSIA.
COAST OF BIG ISLAND OF CASARI FROM ASTRA NORTHWARD TO KELSIA... TROPICAL
+
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
+
+
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 26 METRES.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  WIND RADII...
 
  WIND RADII...
  34-KT
+
  NO READINGS AVAILABLE.
160 KM NE QUADRANT
+
175 KM NW QUADRANT
+
150 KM SE QUADRANT
+
155 KM SW QUADRANT
+
+
50-KT
+
105 KM NE QUADRANT
+
120 KM NW QUADRANT
+
  90 KM SE QUADRANT
+
  90 KM SW QUADRANT
+
+
64-KT
+
60 KM NE QUADRANT
+
70 KM NW QUADRANT
+
45 KM SE QUADRANT
+
40 KM SW QUADRANT
+
+
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCED IN CARLTON, CASARI.
+
 
   
 
   
PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
 
 
  HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON
 
  HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON
 
  INTENSITY:
 
  INTENSITY:
  A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENT INTENSITY +85 KT 100 MPH 155 KM/H+ 972 HPA MBAR
+
  A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENT INTENSITY +65 KT 75 MPH 120 KM/H+ 986 HPA MBAR
  B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... +80 KT 95 MPH 150 KM/H+ 976 HPA MBAR
+
  B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... +90 KT 105 MPH 165 KM/H+ 972 HPA MBAR
 
  POSITIONING:
 
  POSITIONING:
  A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 25 KM 15 MILES EAST OF CARLTON CASARI.
+
  A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENTLY CENTRED INLAND WEST OF DALKAR, CASARI.
  B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST OF ADDISON CASARI.
+
  B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 55 KM 35 MI EAST OF ADDISON CASARI.
C - LANDFALL FORECAST: LANDFALL ON CARLTON CASARI WITHIN NEXT HOUR.
+
  D - WARNINGS: SEE ABOVE.
  D - WARNINGS: HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI.
+
              TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF CASARI FROM ASTRA
+
              NORTHWARD TO KELSIA.
+
 
  MOVEMENT:
 
  MOVEMENT:
 
  A - ALLANI-DAGON MOVEMENT OVER LAST 12 HOURS WEST AT NEAR 24 KM/H 15 MPH.
 
  A - ALLANI-DAGON MOVEMENT OVER LAST 12 HOURS WEST AT NEAR 24 KM/H 15 MPH.
 
  B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 24 KM/H 15 MPH.
 
  B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 24 KM/H 15 MPH.
 
COMMENTS:
 
ALLANI-DAGON ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND
 
LIMIT DAMAGE SHOULD BE COMPLETE.
 
 
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL WARNING JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN
 
OCEANIA... SO THIS ADVISORY IS WHOLLY UNOFFICIAL AND PROVIDED ONLY AS A
 
WARNING/FORECAST.
 
 
   
 
   
 
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.
 
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.
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  FORECAST... KM/MILES/DIR. FROM CLOSEST CITY... WINDSPEED
 
  FORECAST... KM/MILES/DIR. FROM CLOSEST CITY... WINDSPEED
 
                                               KT/MPH/KM/H
 
                                               KT/MPH/KM/H
  CURRENTLY...  25 KM  15 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 85/100/155 CAT 2
+
  CURRENTLY... 150 KM  95 MI WEST  DALKAR CAS... 65/75/120 CAT 1
IN 12 HRS... 150 KM  95 MI WEST  DALKAR CAS... 65/75/120 CAT 1
+
  IN 12 HRS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 80/95/150 CAT 1
  IN 24 HRS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 80/95/150 CAT 1
+
  IN 24 HRS...  55 KM  35 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 90/105/165 CAT 2
  IN 36 HRS...  55 KM  35 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 90/105/165 CAT 2
+
  IN 36 HRS...  INLAND VERY NEAR  INSLOW CAS... 50/60/95
  IN 48 HRS...  INLAND VERY NEAR  INSLOW CAS... 50/60/95
+
  IN 60 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR WILLINGBY CAS... 35/40/60
  IN 72 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR WILLINGBY CAS... 35/40/60
+
 
   
 
   
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
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==AO-Three==
 
==AO-Three==
 
  LCLW CHCM AOTC
 
  LCLW CHCM AOTC
  TROPICAL STORM CHARLES WEATHER ADVISORY NR 001A... INTERMEDIATE
+
  TROPICAL STORM CHARLES WEATHER ADVISORY NR 002
 
  BEDISTANI/PEDRIAN DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM LYDIA
 
  BEDISTANI/PEDRIAN DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM LYDIA
 
  CHACOR MET SERVICE IN CO-ORDINATION WITH THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC
 
  CHACOR MET SERVICE IN CO-ORDINATION WITH THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC
  TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT JUNE 12, 2145
+
  TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT JUNE 12, 2145
 
  LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
 
  LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN
 
 
   
 
   
  A BOUT OF SUDDEN RAPID STRENGTHENING MEANS TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO3 IS
+
  ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR CHACOR
  NOW A TROPICAL STORM.
+
  NORTH OF PORT HARVEY... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF
 +
CHACOR SOUTH OF PORT HARVEY REMAIN IN EFFECT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
 +
IN EFFECT. HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN
 +
EFFECT. LOCAL INLAND STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
   
 
   
  TROPICAL STORM CHARLES POSES A THREAT TO CHACOR. LOCAL STORM WARNINGS
+
  TROPICAL STORM CHARLES CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT TO CHACOR. LOCAL STORM
  REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF CHACOR... INCLUDING
+
  WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF CHACOR...
  THE FORMER DMZ/DJACOR-RYSONIA.
+
  INCLUDING THE FORMER DMZ/DJACOR-RYSONIA.
 
   
 
   
  AT 3 PM HPT JUNE 12... TROPICAL STORM CHARLES (LYDIA) WAS LOCATED FAR
+
  AT 9 PM HPT JUNE 12... TROPICAL STORM CHARLES (LYDIA) WAS LOCATED FAR
 
  EAST-NORTHEAST OF ÚSTIN, PEDRIANA... VERY NEAR THE COAST OF CHACOR. IT
 
  EAST-NORTHEAST OF ÚSTIN, PEDRIANA... VERY NEAR THE COAST OF CHACOR. IT
  IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 KM/H... 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
+
  IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 19 KM/H... 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
  ARE 65 KM/H... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA/MBAR.
+
  ARE 65 KM/H... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA/MBAR.  
+
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 80 MM... THREE INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE
+
OVER SOUTHWESTERN CHACOR... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 100 MM...
+
FIVE INCHES. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST.
+
 
   
 
   
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM CHACOR...
+
  FURTHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 50 MM... TWO INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE
AND WILL LIKELY STOP IMPACTING THE COUNTRY WITHIN 60 HOURS. AS WATERS ARE
+
  OVER SOUTHWESTERN CHACOR... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 80 MM...
  WARM... STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.
+
THREE INCHES. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST.
 
   
 
   
  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES SOUTH OF PORT HARVEY, CHACOR HAVE BEEN CHANGED
+
  CHARLES IS STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM CHACOR.
TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
+
THE COAST OF CHACOR SOUTH OF PORT HARVEY. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN
+
IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CHACOR NORTH OF PORT HARVEY.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  FURTHER IN THE FORECAST... PEDRIANA, MAINLAND BEDISTAN AND THE OFF-SHORE
 
  FURTHER IN THE FORECAST... PEDRIANA, MAINLAND BEDISTAN AND THE OFF-SHORE
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  THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
 
  THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
 
  CRYSTILAKERE CHANNEL. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
 
  CRYSTILAKERE CHANNEL. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
  SARZONIAN ISLANDS.
+
  SARZONIAN ISLANDS.  
 
   
 
   
  REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT JUNE 12 POSITION... TROPICAL STORM CHARLES/LYDIA
+
  HIGH WINDS ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST PEDRIANA... INCLUDING THE CITY
  JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CHACOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT
+
  OF ÚSTIN.
AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA. MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 KT.
+
 
   
 
   
  RESIDENTS OF PEDRIANA... MAINLAND BEDISTAN... AS WELL AS OFFSHORE SARZONIA
+
  AT THIS POINT IN TIME... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE
SHOULD CONSULT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER FORECAST INFORMATION UNTIL
+
  OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR
  THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM CHACOR AS THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE WILL
+
  PEDRIANA AND BEDISTAN.
  START TO ISSUE FORECASTS THEN.
+
 
   
 
   
  THE NEXT FULL LOCAL WARNING ON TROPICAL STORM CHARLES FROM THE CHACOR
+
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
WEATHER AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT LIVERPOOL
+
AT 3 AM.
ENGLAND TIME... FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE LOCAL WARNING AT 3 AM HPT.
+
 
    
 
    
  ISSUED BY FORECASTER INDILBA
+
  ISSUED BY FORECASTER JOYCE
  
 
[[Category:Atlantian Oceania]]
 
[[Category:Atlantian Oceania]]

Revision as of 14:07, 20 September 2006

See also all past AO TC advisories

AO-Two Allani-Dagon

AOTC LEMS HPCPH
HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON ADVISORY 005
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT JUNE 12, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

ALLANI/DAGON MAKES LANDFALL ON SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI...
STILL A POTENT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE SMALL ISLAND.
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT ON THE MAIN ISLAND FROM ASTRA NORTHWARD
TO KELSIA.

WIND RADII...
NO READINGS AVAILABLE.

HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON
INTENSITY:
A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENT INTENSITY +65 KT 75 MPH 120 KM/H+ 986 HPA MBAR
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... +90 KT 105 MPH 165 KM/H+ 972 HPA MBAR
POSITIONING:
A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENTLY CENTRED INLAND WEST OF DALKAR, CASARI.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 55 KM 35 MI EAST OF ADDISON CASARI.
D - WARNINGS: SEE ABOVE.
MOVEMENT:
A - ALLANI-DAGON MOVEMENT OVER LAST 12 HOURS WEST AT NEAR 24 KM/H 15 MPH.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 24 KM/H 15 MPH.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST... KM/MILES/DIR. FROM CLOSEST CITY... WINDSPEED
                                              KT/MPH/KM/H
CURRENTLY... 150 KM  95 MI WEST  DALKAR CAS... 65/75/120 CAT 1
IN 12 HRS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 80/95/150 CAT 1
IN 24 HRS...  55 KM  35 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 90/105/165 CAT 2
IN 36 HRS...   INLAND VERY NEAR  INSLOW CAS... 50/60/95
IN 60 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR WILLINGBY CAS... 35/40/60

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//

AO-Three

LCLW CHCM AOTC
TROPICAL STORM CHARLES WEATHER ADVISORY NR 002
BEDISTANI/PEDRIAN DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM LYDIA
CHACOR MET SERVICE IN CO-ORDINATION WITH THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT JUNE 12, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR CHACOR
NORTH OF PORT HARVEY... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF
CHACOR SOUTH OF PORT HARVEY REMAIN IN EFFECT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT. HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN
EFFECT. LOCAL INLAND STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CHARLES CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT TO CHACOR. LOCAL STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF CHACOR...
INCLUDING THE FORMER DMZ/DJACOR-RYSONIA.

AT 9 PM HPT JUNE 12... TROPICAL STORM CHARLES (LYDIA) WAS LOCATED FAR
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ÚSTIN, PEDRIANA... VERY NEAR THE COAST OF CHACOR. IT
IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 19 KM/H... 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 65 KM/H... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA/MBAR. 

FURTHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 50 MM... TWO INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWESTERN CHACOR... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 80 MM...
THREE INCHES. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST.

CHARLES IS STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM CHACOR.

FURTHER IN THE FORECAST... PEDRIANA, MAINLAND BEDISTAN AND THE OFF-SHORE
ISLANDS OF SARZONIA SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
CRYSTILAKERE CHANNEL. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
SARZONIAN ISLANDS. 

HIGH WINDS ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST PEDRIANA... INCLUDING THE CITY
OF ÚSTIN.

AT THIS POINT IN TIME... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE
OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR
PEDRIANA AND BEDISTAN.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 3 AM.
 
ISSUED BY FORECASTER JOYCE