Difference between revisions of "TD19 (2145)/Past"

Revision as of 03:44, 17 November 2006

Tropical Depression Nineteen

Advisory 1

4519 TCWC HPCLC CCA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (4519) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU WARNING CENTRE
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME JUL 30 2145

THE SYSTEM THAT ABSORBED THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRENT
HAS SHOWN SUFFICIENT ORGANISATION OVER THE LAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS TO BE
DECLARED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. RECENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS ASYMMETRIC...
BUT WARM-CORE IN NATURE. BASED ON SHIP REPORTS FROM HA47D... QUALITY-CONTROLLED
T00A8... AND THE NLES RUSSELL... LOCATED 150 NE... 175 SE AND 240 NW NAUTICAL MILES
RESPECTIVELY FROM THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM OF 23... 18 (QUALITY CONTROLLED FOR
BEING TOO LOW)... AND 20 KNOTS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS 25 KT.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE ILL-DEFINED CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED
BY A COMBINATION OF RADAR... SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND SHIP REPORTS... NEAR LATITUDE
40.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 35.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 600 KM... 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H... 30 MPH.
THE SYSTEM HAS AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA... AND IS MOVING
NORTH AT 16 KM/H... 10 MPH.

THE COLD WATERS IN THE WAKE OF BRENT DO NOT SUPPORT A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AND INDEED A COLD FRONT JUST DEPARTING TO THE NW SUGGESTS THAT SHOULD THIS SYSTEM
EVEN ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO LAND TO THE NW... IT WILL QUICKLY BE SHEARED TO DEATH.
I WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BASED OFF THE HDCW EXTP... THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWARD BEFORE A SHARP ENE TURN FORCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES
NOT EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 30/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 40.6 N 35.5 E... 25 KT
30/2100H... 41.0 N 35.6 E... 25 KT
31/0300H... 41.5 N 35.7 E... 30 KT 
31/1500H... 42.0 N 37.0 E... 25 KT...INLAND NEAR DANJLGRAD
31/2100H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... NEAR 40.6 N 35.5 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 45 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
N AT 16 KM/H.

THE NEXT ADVISORY/DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WILL BE ISSUED AT
9 PM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

Advisory 2

4519 TCWC HPCLC CCA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (4519) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU WARNING CENTRE
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUL 30 2145

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN HAS NOT YET SHOWED ANY SIGNS OF FURTHER ORGANISATION
... AND INDEED SEEMS TO BE LOSING DEEP CONVECTION ON SATELLITE INFRARED IMAGERY.
NEVERTHELESS... THERE IS A SMALL POCKET OF TIME FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN
A LITTLE... AND EVEN IF IT DOESN'T... THIS DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO EITHER POPULARFREEDOM OR NEW VARANGIA.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE ILL-DEFINED CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED
BY A COMBINATION OF RADAR... SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND SHIP REPORTS... NEAR LATITUDE
41.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 35.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 485 KM... 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H... 30 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM HAS AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA... AND IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 22 KM/H... 13 MPH.

MAINLY BORROWING FROM PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC... THE COLD WATERS IN THE WAKE OF BRENT
DO NOT SUPPORT A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE... AND A COLD FRONT JUST DEPARTING TO THE NW
SUGGESTS THAT SHOULD THIS SYSTEM EVEN ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO LAND TO THE NW...
IT WILL QUICKLY BE SHEARED TO DEATH. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS... THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE A SHARP ENE TURN FORCED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST DOES NOT EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 30/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 41.0 N 35.6 E... 25 KT
31/0300H... 41.5 N 35.7 E... 30 KT 
31/0900H... 41.8 N 36.4 E... 30 KT 
31/1500H... 42.0 N 37.0 E... 25 KT...INLAND NEAR DANJLGRAD
31/2100H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... NEAR 41.0 N 35.6 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 45 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NNE AT 22 KM/H.

THE NEXT ADVISORY/DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WILL BE ISSUED AT
3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER KRUGER