Difference between revisions of "TD19 (2145)"

From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
Jump to: navigation, search
Line 1: Line 1:
 
{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Depression Nineteen
 
{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Depression Nineteen
 
|category=depression|type=Tropical Depression
 
|category=depression|type=Tropical Depression
−
|local time=2300
+
|local time=0500
−
|date=July 30
+
|date=July 31
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 41.0°N 35.6°E]<br/>About 485 km (300 miles) east-southeast of Magna Carta, PopularFreedom
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 41.5°N 35.7°E]<br/>About 550 km (345 miles) east-southeast of Magna Carta, PopularFreedom<BR/>About 645 km (405 miles) west-southwest of Danjlgrad, New Varangia
−
|winds=45 km/h (35 mph)
+
|winds=55 km/h (35 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
−
|pressure=1006 hPa
+
|pressure=1004 hPa
−
|movement=North-northeast at 22 km/h (13 mph)
+
|movement=Northeast at 32 km/h (20 mph)
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
 
  4519 TCWC HPCLC
 
  4519 TCWC HPCLC
−
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (4519) ADVISORY 002
+
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (4519) ADVISORY 003
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU WARNING CENTRE
 
  LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU WARNING CENTRE
−
  7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUL 30 2145
+
  1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 31 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN HAS NOT YET SHOWED ANY SIGNS OF FURTHER ORGANISATION
+
  PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL
−
  ... AND INDEED SEEMS TO BE LOSING DEEP CONVECTION ON SATELLITE INFRARED IMAGERY.
+
DEPRESSION NINETEEN... AND THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN THE
−
  NEVERTHELESS... THERE IS A SMALL POCKET OF TIME FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN
+
ORGANISATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED
−
  A LITTLE... AND EVEN IF IT DOESN'T... THIS DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
+
  30-KNOT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS... AND SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL
−
  HEAVY RAINS TO EITHER POPULARFREEDOM OR NEW VARANGIA.
+
  INTENSITY. IT NOW SEEMS THAT IF THE DEPRESSION IS ABLE TO KEEP UP THIS
 +
  BOUT OF DEEP CONVECTION... AND INCREASES IN ORGANISATION... IT IS QUITE
 +
POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.
 +
  NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE NECESSARY YET.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 9 PM HPT... THE ILL-DEFINED CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED
+
  AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED BY
−
  BY A COMBINATION OF RADAR... SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND SHIP REPORTS... NEAR LATITUDE
+
  RADAR AND QUIKSCAT IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 NORTH...
−
41.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 35.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 485 KM... 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
+
LONGITUDE 35.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 550 KM... 345 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
−
  MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM.
+
  MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 645 KM... 405 MILES...
 +
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DANJLGRAD, NEW VARANGIA.
 
   
 
   
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH...
−
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
+
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
 +
12 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE SYSTEM HAS AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA... AND IS MOVING
+
  THE SYSTEM HAS AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 HPA... AND
−
  NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 22 KM/H... 13 MPH.
+
  IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 KM/H... 20 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
 +
MAKE ANOTHER MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TURN BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR DANJLGRAD.
 
   
 
   
−
  MAINLY BORROWING FROM PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC... THE COLD WATERS IN THE WAKE OF BRENT
+
  SO FAR... TD-NINETEEN HAS BEEN FOLLOWING OUR FORECAST TRACK PRETTY WELL.
−
  DO NOT SUPPORT A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE... AND A COLD FRONT JUST DEPARTING TO THE NW
+
  IN FACT... IT HAS BEEN 100 PERCENT. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HEAD
−
  SUGGESTS THAT SHOULD THIS SYSTEM EVEN ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO LAND TO THE NW...
+
  WESTWARD AND GET SHEARED TO DEATH BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET... AND IT IS NOW
−
  IT WILL QUICKLY BE SHEARED TO DEATH. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS... THE FORECAST CALLS
+
  TURNING THROUGH THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
−
  FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE A SHARP ENE TURN FORCED BY THE
+
NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS... SO SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL
−
  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND THE OFFICIAL
+
  STORM BEFORE LANDFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOULD TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
−
  FORECAST DOES NOT EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.
+
OR WATCHES BE NEEDED... A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY HPCOR.
 +
  OFFICIALLY... THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE... RELYING HEAVILY ON HDCW
 +
  EXTP. INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO UNCHANGED... ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY
 +
BRIEFLY GAIN STORM STATUS.
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
−
  INITIAL TIME IS 30/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
+
  INITIAL TIME IS 31/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
−
   INITIAL... 41.0 N 35.6 E... 25 KT
+
   INITIAL... 41.5 N 35.7 E... 30 KT  
−
31/0300H... 41.5 N 35.7 E... 30 KT  
+
 
  31/0900H... 41.8 N 36.4 E... 30 KT  
 
  31/0900H... 41.8 N 36.4 E... 30 KT  
 
  31/1500H... 42.0 N 37.0 E... 25 KT...INLAND NEAR DANJLGRAD
 
  31/1500H... 42.0 N 37.0 E... 25 KT...INLAND NEAR DANJLGRAD
 
  31/2100H...DISSIPATED
 
  31/2100H...DISSIPATED
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... NEAR 41.0 N 35.6 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... NEAR 41.5 N 35.7 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
−
  ARE NEAR 45 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
+
  WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA. THE SYSTEM
−
  NNE AT 22 KM/H.
+
  IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
 
  THE NEXT ADVISORY/DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WILL BE ISSUED AT
 
  THE NEXT ADVISORY/DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WILL BE ISSUED AT
−
  3 AM HPT.
+
  9 AM HPT.
 
   
 
   
 
  FORECASTER KRUGER
 
  FORECASTER KRUGER

Revision as of 04:00, 17 November 2006

Latest storm information
Tropical Depression Nineteen
Tropical Depression
As of: 0500 local time July 31, 2145
Location: 41.5°N 35.7°E
About 550 km (345 miles) east-southeast of Magna Carta, PopularFreedom
About 645 km (405 miles) west-southwest of Danjlgrad, New Varangia
Maximum
winds: 		55 km/h (35 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1004 hPa
Movement: Northeast at 32 km/h (20 mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4519 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (4519) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU WARNING CENTRE
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 31 2145

PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINETEEN... AND THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN THE
ORGANISATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED
30-KNOT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS... AND SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. IT NOW SEEMS THAT IF THE DEPRESSION IS ABLE TO KEEP UP THIS
BOUT OF DEEP CONVECTION... AND INCREASES IN ORGANISATION... IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE NECESSARY YET.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND QUIKSCAT IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 35.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 550 KM... 345 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 645 KM... 405 MILES...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DANJLGRAD, NEW VARANGIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE SYSTEM HAS AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 HPA... AND
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 KM/H... 20 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE ANOTHER MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TURN BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR DANJLGRAD.

SO FAR... TD-NINETEEN HAS BEEN FOLLOWING OUR FORECAST TRACK PRETTY WELL.
IN FACT... IT HAS BEEN 100 PERCENT. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HEAD
WESTWARD AND GET SHEARED TO DEATH BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET... AND IT IS NOW
TURNING THROUGH THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS... SO SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL
STORM BEFORE LANDFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOULD TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
OR WATCHES BE NEEDED... A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY HPCOR.
OFFICIALLY... THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE... RELYING HEAVILY ON HDCW
EXTP. INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO UNCHANGED... ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY
BRIEFLY GAIN STORM STATUS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 31/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 41.5 N 35.7 E... 30 KT 
31/0900H... 41.8 N 36.4 E... 30 KT 
31/1500H... 42.0 N 37.0 E... 25 KT...INLAND NEAR DANJLGRAD
31/2100H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... NEAR 41.5 N 35.7 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 KM/H.

THE NEXT ADVISORY/DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WILL BE ISSUED AT
9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER KRUGER
Retrieved from "http://archive.nswiki.org/index.php?title=TD19_(2145)&oldid=228975"