Difference between revisions of "TD20 (2145)"

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{{Storm active2|name=Subtropical Depression Twenty
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{{Storm active2|name=Subtropical Storm Douglas
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|category=depression|type=Subtropical depression
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|category=storm|type=Subtropical storm
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|local time=0200
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|local time=0800
 
|date=September 21
 
|date=September 21
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
 
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 44.6°N 5.4°E]<br/>About 2095 km (1310 miles) west of Cyclonesville<br/>About 1275 km (795 miles) west-northwest of North Podgorica City
 
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 44.6°N 5.4°E]<br/>About 2095 km (1310 miles) west of Cyclonesville<br/>About 1275 km (795 miles) west-northwest of North Podgorica City
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|winds=55 km/h (35 mph)
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|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=1008 hPa
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|pressure=1003 hPa
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|movement=North slowly
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|movement=Northwest slowly
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
 
  4520 TCWC HPCWT
 
  4520 TCWC HPCWT
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  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY (4520) ADVISORY/DISCUSSION 001
+
  SUBTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS (4520) ADVISORY/DISCUSSION 003
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  MSHPC CYCLONESVILLE, WT WARNINGS SUB-BUREAU
 
  MSHPC CYCLONESVILLE, WT WARNINGS SUB-BUREAU
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  1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME SEP 21 2145
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  7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME SEP 21 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
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  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY STALLS... AND STRENGTHENS INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM...
 
   
 
   
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  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DUE TO DISORGANISATION OF THE
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  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY STALLED EARLIER AND DID NOT MAKE THE EXPECTED SLOW
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  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 24-36 HR FOR
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  NORTHWARD DRIFT. SINCE BUOY REPORTS INDICATE A MUCH LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE... NOW
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  THE DEPRESSION TO GET ORGANISED BEFORE IT IS SHEARED TO DEATH.
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1003 HPA... AND WINDS OF 33 KT... WE WERE FORCED TO MAKE A DECISION TO EITHER
 +
UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM... OR DECLARE A FULLY-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 +
  BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... IT SEEMS THAT CALLING THIS A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS
 +
THE BETTER CHOICE. THEREFORE... THE 16TH NAMED STORM/17TH NAMEABLE STORM OF THE
 +
SEASON IS CHRISTENED DOUGLAS.
 
   
 
   
−
  RECON REPORTED 34KT FLW AT 0012H LOCAL... SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... 30 KT.
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  AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
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  NEAR LATITUDE 44.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.4 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 2095 KM... 1310 MI...
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AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE
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−
  MISSION NEAR LATITUDE 44.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.4 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 2095 KM... 1310 MI...
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  WEST OF CYCLONESVILLE, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... OR ABOUT 1275 KM... 795 MILES...
 
  WEST OF CYCLONESVILLE, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... OR ABOUT 1275 KM... 795 MILES...
 
  WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORTH PODGORICA CITY, CRNA GORA LIV ENG.
 
  WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORTH PODGORICA CITY, CRNA GORA LIV ENG.
 
   
 
   
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  IT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARDS... BUT NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IS FORECAST FOR
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  IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST... AND A SLOW ANTICLOCKWISE TURN IS
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  THE DEPRESSION. THEREFORE... IF THE SYSTEM GAINS STORM STRENGTH/GALE INTENSITY...
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  EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  
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  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS... OR GALE-FORCE WIND ADVISORIES... MAY BE REQUIRED
+
−
FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN TERRITORIES COAST.
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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS TAKEN
 +
  FROM BUOY X12LE3Y... NEAR 44.6 5.1... IS 1003 HPA.
 
   
 
   
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  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
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  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... GALE STRENGTH... EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MI...
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STRENGTHEN TO A STORM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECON
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  FROM THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM.
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  WAS 1008 HPA.
+
 
   
 
   
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  FOLLOWING REACHING STORM STRENGTH... WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT PREDICTED THE STORM IS EXPECTED
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  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK THE STORM TAKES... IT COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HR... OR BE
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TO EITHER UPWELL ITSELF OR BE SHEARED TO DEATH... OR BOTH... IN ABOUT 60 HR.
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A HIGH-END TS IN 36 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MADE WITH LOW (15-30 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE
 +
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER SCENARIO PRESENTED.
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
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  INITIAL TIME IS 21/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
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  INITIAL TIME IS 21/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
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   INITIAL... 44.6 N 05.4 E... 30 KT
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   INITIAL... 44.6 N 05.4 E... 35 KT
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  21/0900H... 44.7 N 05.4 E... 35 KT
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  21/1500H... 44.7 N 05.3 E... 35 KT
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  21/1500H... 44.7 N 05.3 E... 35 KT <!-- 21/2100H... 44.6 N 05.3 E... 35 KT -->
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  21/2100H... 44.6 N 05.3 E... 35 KT <!-- 22/0300H... 44.5 N 05.2 E... 30 KT -->
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  22/0300H... 44.5 N 05.2 E... 30 KT
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  22/0900H... 44.4 N 05.2 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
  22/1500H...DISSIPATED
 
  22/1500H...DISSIPATED
 
   
 
   
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  REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 44.6 N 5.4 E. MOVEMENT...SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
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  REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 44.6 N 5.4 E. MOVEMENT...SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
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  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 HPA.
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  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 HPA.
 
   
 
   
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  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IN CYCLONESVILLE AT 9 AM HPT.
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  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IN CYCLONESVILLE AT 3 PM HPT.
 
   
 
   
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  FORECASTERS FRABANK/STELIVA
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  FORECASTER STELIVA

Revision as of 01:25, 7 December 2006

Latest storm information
Subtropical Storm Douglas
Subtropical storm
As of: 0800 local time September 21, 2145
Location: 44.6°N 5.4°E
About 2095 km (1310 miles) west of Cyclonesville
About 1275 km (795 miles) west-northwest of North Podgorica City
Maximum
winds: 		65 km/h (40 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1003 hPa
Movement: Northwest slowly
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4520 TCWC HPCWT
SUBTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS (4520) ADVISORY/DISCUSSION 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC CYCLONESVILLE, WT WARNINGS SUB-BUREAU
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME SEP 21 2145

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY STALLS... AND STRENGTHENS INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM...

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY STALLED EARLIER AND DID NOT MAKE THE EXPECTED SLOW
NORTHWARD DRIFT. SINCE BUOY REPORTS INDICATE A MUCH LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE... NOW
1003 HPA... AND WINDS OF 33 KT... WE WERE FORCED TO MAKE A DECISION TO EITHER
UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM... OR DECLARE A FULLY-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... IT SEEMS THAT CALLING THIS A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS
THE BETTER CHOICE. THEREFORE... THE 16TH NAMED STORM/17TH NAMEABLE STORM OF THE
SEASON IS CHRISTENED DOUGLAS.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 44.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.4 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 2095 KM... 1310 MI...
WEST OF CYCLONESVILLE, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... OR ABOUT 1275 KM... 795 MILES...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORTH PODGORICA CITY, CRNA GORA LIV ENG.

IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST... AND A SLOW ANTICLOCKWISE TURN IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS TAKEN
FROM BUOY X12LE3Y... NEAR 44.6 5.1... IS 1003 HPA.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... GALE STRENGTH... EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MI...
FROM THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK THE STORM TAKES... IT COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HR... OR BE
A HIGH-END TS IN 36 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MADE WITH LOW (15-30 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER SCENARIO PRESENTED.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 21/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 44.6 N 05.4 E... 35 KT
21/1500H... 44.7 N 05.3 E... 35 KT
21/2100H... 44.6 N 05.3 E... 35 KT 
22/0900H... 44.4 N 05.2 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
22/1500H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 44.6 N 5.4 E. MOVEMENT...SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 HPA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IN CYCLONESVILLE AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER STELIVA
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