Difference between revisions of "TD20 (2145)"

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{{Storm active2|name=Subtropical Storm Douglas
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{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Storm Douglas
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|category=storm|type=Subtropical storm
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|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
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|local time=0800
+
|local time=1400
 
|date=September 21
 
|date=September 21
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
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|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 44.6°N 5.4°E]<br/>About 2095 km (1310 miles) west of Cyclonesville<br/>About 1275 km (795 miles) west-northwest of North Podgorica City
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|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 44.7°N 5.3°E]<br/>About 2145 km (1340 miles) west of Cyclonesville<br/>About 1320 km (825 miles) west-northwest of North Podgorica City
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|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
+
|winds=75 km/h (45 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=1003 hPa
+
|pressure=1000 hPa
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|movement=Northwest slowly
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|movement=North at 9 km/h (6 mph)
−
|advisory=latest}}
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|advisory=latest}}{{Image|1=http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/3475/nsts4520an1.png|2=left|4=<small>Current warnings and watches</small>|5=450px}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
 
  4520 TCWC HPCWT
 
  4520 TCWC HPCWT
−
  SUBTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS (4520) ADVISORY/DISCUSSION 003
+
  TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS (4520) ADVISORY/DISCUSSION 004
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  MSHPC CYCLONESVILLE, WT WARNINGS SUB-BUREAU
 
  MSHPC CYCLONESVILLE, WT WARNINGS SUB-BUREAU
−
  7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME SEP 21 2145
+
  1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME SEP 21 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY STALLS... AND STRENGTHENS INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM...
+
  SUBTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS BECOMES TROPICAL AS IT STRENGTHENS...
 
   
 
   
−
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY STALLED EARLIER AND DID NOT MAKE THE EXPECTED SLOW
+
  QUIKSCAT INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM NOW HAS HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS... WITH A 45-KT
−
  NORTHWARD DRIFT. SINCE BUOY REPORTS INDICATE A MUCH LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE... NOW
+
  VECTOR OBTAINED... AS WELL AS MANY 40-KT VECTORS. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
−
  1003 HPA... AND WINDS OF 33 KT... WE WERE FORCED TO MAKE A DECISION TO EITHER
+
  DOUGLAS HAS IMPROVED... AND THIS IS JUSTIFICATION FOR DECLARING DOUGLAS FULLY
−
  UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM... OR DECLARE A FULLY-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
+
TROPICAL AT 40 KT. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE NW/W TURN WILL NOT OCCUR... AND A SLOW
−
  BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... IT SEEMS THAT CALLING THIS A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS
+
  CLOCKWISE MOVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS CULMINATING IN LANDFALL
−
  THE BETTER CHOICE. THEREFORE... THE 16TH NAMED STORM/17TH NAMEABLE STORM OF THE
+
NEAR 60 HOURS. DUE TO AN EXPANDING WINDFIELD... AND WITH FURTHER EXPANSION OF
−
SEASON IS CHRISTENED DOUGLAS.
+
  STRONGEST WINDS RADII EXPECTED... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES
 +
  HAVE BEEN INITIATED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE WESTERN TERRITORIES.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
+
  AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE
−
  NEAR LATITUDE 44.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.4 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 2095 KM... 1310 MI...
+
  NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.3 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 2145 KM... 1340 MI...
−
  WEST OF CYCLONESVILLE, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... OR ABOUT 1275 KM... 795 MILES...
+
  WEST OF CYCLONESVILLE, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... OR ABOUT 1320 KM... 825 MILES...
 
  WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORTH PODGORICA CITY, CRNA GORA LIV ENG.
 
  WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORTH PODGORICA CITY, CRNA GORA LIV ENG.
 
   
 
   
−
  IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST... AND A SLOW ANTICLOCKWISE TURN IS
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF LIVERPOOL
−
  EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  
+
ENGLAND FROM 46.8N 6.9E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 1775 KM NORTHWEST OF CYCLONESVILLE
 +
  SOUTHWARD TO 43.7N 7.3E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 710 KM WEST OF NORTH PODGORICA CITY.
 
   
 
   
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS TAKEN
+
  A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF LIVERPOOL
−
  FROM BUOY X12LE3Y... NEAR 44.6 5.1... IS 1003 HPA.
+
ENGLAND FROM 46.2N 7.0E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 550 KM WEST OF THE WT COMMEMORATION
 +
  LANDMARK... SOUTHWARD TO 44.9N 7.2E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 1615 KM WEST-NORTHWEST
 +
OF CYCLONESVILLE.
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... GALE STRENGTH... EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MI...
+
  IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 9 KM/H OR 6 MPH... AND A SLOW CLOCKWISE TURN
−
  FROM THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM.
+
  IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  
 
   
 
   
−
  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK THE STORM TAKES... IT COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HR... OR BE
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 KM/H... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
−
  A HIGH-END TS IN 36 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MADE WITH LOW (15-30 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE
+
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 HPA.
−
  BUT WILL FOLLOW THE FORMER SCENARIO PRESENTED.
+
 +
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 385 KM... 240 MI... FROM THE CENTRE
 +
OF THE STORM. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY
 +
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST.
 +
 +
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING HAS BEEN TOTALLY WRONGED. TS4520 IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
 +
ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL LANDFALL
 +
  AROUND TAU60... LIKELY AS A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST... WHILE TAKING
 +
  INTO ACCOUNT 24C SSTS AND GROWING SHEAR... WILL CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS IT
 +
MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS TO ITS NORTHEAST... REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
 +
ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT... LIKELY RAPID WEAKENING ONCE INLAND.
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
−
  INITIAL TIME IS 21/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
+
  INITIAL TIME IS 21/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
−
   INITIAL... 44.6 N 05.4 E... 35 KT
+
   INITIAL... 44.7 N 05.3 E... 40 KT
−
  21/1500H... 44.7 N 05.3 E... 35 KT
+
  21/2100H... 44.9 N 05.3 E... 40 KT  
−
  21/2100H... 44.6 N 05.3 E... 35 KT <!--  22/0300H... 44.5 N 05.2 E... 30 KT -->
+
  22/0300H... 45.1 N 05.4 E... 45 KT <!-- 22/0900H... 45.4 N 05.6 E... 50 KT -->
−
  22/0900H... 44.4 N 05.2 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
+
  22/1500H... 45.5 N 05.8 E... 55 KT <!-- 22/2100H... 45.6 N 06.1 E... 55 KT -->
−
  22/1500H...DISSIPATED
+
  23/0300H... 45.8 N 06.4 E... 60 KT <!-- 23/0900H... 45.6 N 06.7 E... 60 KT -->
 +
23/1500H... 45.4 N 06.8 E... 65 KT <!-- 23/2100H... 45.2 N 07.0 E... 65 KT
 +
24/0300H... 45.0 N 07.3 E... 65 KT...LANDFALL
 +
24/0900H... 44.7 N 07.5 E... 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND-->
 +
24/1500H... 44.5 N 07.8 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND <!-- 24/2100H...DISSIPATED -->
 +
  25/1500H...DISSIPATED
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 44.6 N 5.4 E. MOVEMENT...SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
+
  REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 44.7 N 5.3 E. MOVEMENT...NORTHWARD NEAR 9 KM/H.
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 HPA.
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 HPA.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IN CYCLONESVILLE AT 3 PM HPT.
+
  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IN CYCLONESVILLE AT 9 PM HPT.
 
   
 
   
 
  FORECASTER STELIVA
 
  FORECASTER STELIVA

Revision as of 08:32, 11 December 2006

Latest storm information
Tropical Storm Douglas
Tropical storm
As of: 1400 local time September 21, 2145
Location: 44.7°N 5.3°E
About 2145 km (1340 miles) west of Cyclonesville
About 1320 km (825 miles) west-northwest of North Podgorica City
Maximum
winds: 		75 km/h (45 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1000 hPa
Movement: North at 9 km/h (6 mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here
<div" class="plainlinksneverexpand">nsts4520an1.png
Current warnings and watches
</div> 
4520 TCWC HPCWT
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS (4520) ADVISORY/DISCUSSION 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC CYCLONESVILLE, WT WARNINGS SUB-BUREAU
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME SEP 21 2145

SUBTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS BECOMES TROPICAL AS IT STRENGTHENS...

QUIKSCAT INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM NOW HAS HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS... WITH A 45-KT
VECTOR OBTAINED... AS WELL AS MANY 40-KT VECTORS. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
DOUGLAS HAS IMPROVED... AND THIS IS JUSTIFICATION FOR DECLARING DOUGLAS FULLY
TROPICAL AT 40 KT. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE NW/W TURN WILL NOT OCCUR... AND A SLOW
CLOCKWISE MOVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS CULMINATING IN LANDFALL
NEAR 60 HOURS. DUE TO AN EXPANDING WINDFIELD... AND WITH FURTHER EXPANSION OF
STRONGEST WINDS RADII EXPECTED... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES
HAVE BEEN INITIATED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE WESTERN TERRITORIES.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE
NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.3 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 2145 KM... 1340 MI...
WEST OF CYCLONESVILLE, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... OR ABOUT 1320 KM... 825 MILES...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORTH PODGORICA CITY, CRNA GORA LIV ENG.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF LIVERPOOL
ENGLAND FROM 46.8N 6.9E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 1775 KM NORTHWEST OF CYCLONESVILLE
SOUTHWARD TO 43.7N 7.3E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 710 KM WEST OF NORTH PODGORICA CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF LIVERPOOL
ENGLAND FROM 46.2N 7.0E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 550 KM WEST OF THE WT COMMEMORATION
LANDMARK... SOUTHWARD TO 44.9N 7.2E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 1615 KM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF CYCLONESVILLE.

IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 9 KM/H OR 6 MPH... AND A SLOW CLOCKWISE TURN
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 KM/H... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 HPA.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 385 KM... 240 MI... FROM THE CENTRE
OF THE STORM. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST.

THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING HAS BEEN TOTALLY WRONGED. TS4520 IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL LANDFALL
AROUND TAU60... LIKELY AS A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST... WHILE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT 24C SSTS AND GROWING SHEAR... WILL CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS TO ITS NORTHEAST... REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT... LIKELY RAPID WEAKENING ONCE INLAND.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 21/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 44.7 N 05.3 E... 40 KT
21/2100H... 44.9 N 05.3 E... 40 KT 
22/0300H... 45.1 N 05.4 E... 45 KT 
22/1500H... 45.5 N 05.8 E... 55 KT 
23/0300H... 45.8 N 06.4 E... 60 KT 
23/1500H... 45.4 N 06.8 E... 65 KT 
24/1500H... 44.5 N 07.8 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 
25/1500H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 44.7 N 5.3 E. MOVEMENT...NORTHWARD NEAR 9 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 HPA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IN CYCLONESVILLE AT 9 PM HPT.

FORECASTER STELIVA
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