Difference between revisions of "TD20 (2145)"

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{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Storm Douglas
 
{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Storm Douglas
 
|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
 
|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
−
|local time=2000
+
|local time=0200
−
|date=September 21
+
|date=September 22
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 44.9°N 5.3°E]<br/>About 2130 km (1330 miles) west of Cyclonesville<br/>About 1355 km (845 miles) west-northwest of North Podgorica City
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 45.3°N 5.7°E]<br/>About 1260 km (785 miles) west-northwest of Norpod City (formerly North Podgorica City)
−
|winds=85 km/h (50 mph)
+
|winds=75 km/h (45 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|pressure=999 hPa
 
|pressure=999 hPa
−
|movement=North at 8 km/h (5 mph)
+
|movement=Northeast at 22 km/h (13 mph)
−
|advisory=latest}}{{Image|1=http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/3475/nsts4520an1.png|2=left|4=<small>Warnings and watches as of Advisory 4</small>|5=450px}}
+
|advisory=latest}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
−
  4520 TCWC HPCWT CCA
+
  4520 TCWC HPCWT
−
  TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS (4520) ADVISORY/DISCUSSION 005
+
  TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS (4520) ADVISORY/DISCUSSION 006
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  MSHPC CYCLONESVILLE, WT WARNINGS SUB-BUREAU
 
  MSHPC CYCLONESVILLE, WT WARNINGS SUB-BUREAU
−
  7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME SEP 21 2145
+
  1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME SEP 22 2145
−
CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME
+
 
   
 
   
−
  NOTICE - DUE TO TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES NO WARNING GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE FOR
+
  NOTICE - DUE TO THE OPERATIONAL SHUTDOWN OF THE MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
−
WARNING NR. 5. WARNING GRAPHICS WILL RESUME WHEN THE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS IN
+
NO WARNING GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE FOR WARNING NR. 6. AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
−
  OREAN RESUMES NORMAL ACTIVITY.
+
  DOES NOT ANTICIPATE THE OREAN HQ BEING UP IN TIME TO ISSUE A GRAPHIC...
 +
THE WT GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED TEXT WARNINGS.
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...
+
  TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS GAINS IN FORWARD SPEED AND WEAKENS...
 
   
 
   
−
  BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM TWO HOURS AGO THE TROPICAL STORM HAS INTENSIFIED
+
  THE TROPICAL STORM HAS RAPIDLY MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST SIX
−
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. WIND SPEEDS OF 45 KT WERE CAPTURED IN THE QUIKSCAT PASS...
+
HOURS AT ALMOST 030/12... AND IS FORECAST TO GAIN IN FORWARD SPEED. DOUGLAS
−
  AND A FEW RAIN-MARRED 50-KT VECTORS. SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARDS... 015/04KT.
+
  HAS ALSO MOVED... EARLIER THAN EXPECTED... INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SSTS. A
−
  LOCAL WARNINGS MAY BE IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES
+
  HURRICANE IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED... ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
−
  REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE WESTERN TERRITORIES.
+
  HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE WESTERN
 +
TERRITORIES.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE
+
  AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE
−
  NEAR LATITUDE 44.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.3 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 2130 KM... 1330 MI...
+
  NEAR LATITUDE 45.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.7 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 1260 KM... 785 MI...
−
WEST OF CYCLONESVILLE, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... OR ABOUT 1355 KM... 845 MILES...
+
  WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORPOD CITY, CRNA GORA LIV ENG... FORMERLY NORTH PODGORICA CITY.
−
  WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORTH PODGORICA CITY, CRNA GORA LIV ENG.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF LIVERPOOL
 
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF LIVERPOOL
 
  ENGLAND FROM 46.8N 6.9E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 1775 KM NORTHWEST OF CYCLONESVILLE
 
  ENGLAND FROM 46.8N 6.9E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 1775 KM NORTHWEST OF CYCLONESVILLE
−
  SOUTHWARD TO 43.7N 7.3E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 710 KM WEST OF NORTH PODGORICA CITY.
+
  SOUTHWARD TO 43.7N 7.3E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 710 KM WEST OF NORPOD CITY.
 
   
 
   
 
  A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF LIVERPOOL
 
  A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF LIVERPOOL
−
  ENGLAND FROM 46.2N 7.0E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 550 KM WEST OF THE WT COMMEMORATION
+
  ENGLAND FROM 46.2N 7.0E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 550 KM WEST OF THE COMMEMORATION
 
  LANDMARK... SOUTHWARD TO 44.9N 7.2E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 1615 KM WEST-NORTHWEST
 
  LANDMARK... SOUTHWARD TO 44.9N 7.2E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 1615 KM WEST-NORTHWEST
 
  OF CYCLONESVILLE.
 
  OF CYCLONESVILLE.
 
   
 
   
−
  IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KM/H OR 5 MPH... AND A SLOW CLOCKWISE TURN
+
  IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H OR 13 MPH. A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN
−
  IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 60 HOURS OR SO.  
+
  IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
   
 
   
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 KM/H... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL  
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 KM/H... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL  
 
  PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 999 HPA.
 
  PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 999 HPA.
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 410 KM... 255 MI... FROM THE CENTRE
+
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 435 KM... 270 MI... FROM THE CENTRE
−
  OF THE STORM. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY
+
  OF THE STORM... AND THIS WIND FIELD MAY GET LARGER AS THE STORM BECOMES FRONTAL IN
−
  NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST.
+
  ABOUT 36 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL BY TAU36.
 
   
 
   
−
  TS4520 CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE... AND WILL
+
  GIVEN THE SUDDEN RAPID MOVEMENT OF TS4520 GENERALLY TO THE NE AND THE WEAKENING ALONG
−
  CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL LANDFALL BY TAU60... LIKELY AS A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL
+
  WITH IT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER CALLS FOR A HURRICANE DUE TO DECREASED
−
  INTENSITY FORECAST... WHILE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT FALLING SSTS AND GROWING SHEAR... IS
+
  SSTS. HOWEVER... SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING... POSSIBLY TO INTENSE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
−
  NOW MORE CONSERVATIVE... BUT WILL STILL CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE.
+
OF 50 KT AND ABOVE... IS POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH THE FINAL FORECAST... BASED ON A CONSENSUS
 +
  OF AFLE, HDCW AND UHWF MODELS... CALLS FOR A PEAK AT 45 KT IN 18-24 HR.
 +
 +
AS AN INTERESTING NOTE... DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS FROM AFLE SUGGEST STT D0.6
 +
OVER 06 HRS... ALTHOUGH BOTH HDCW AND UHWF REPORT STT W0.6/06HRS.
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
−
  INITIAL TIME IS 21/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
+
  INITIAL TIME IS 22/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
−
   INITIAL... 44.9 N 05.3 E... 45 KT
+
   INITIAL... 45.3 N 05.7 E... 40 KT  
−
22/0300H... 45.1 N 05.4 E... 45 KT
+
  22/0900H... 45.5 N 06.2 E... 35 KT  
−
  22/0900H... 45.4 N 05.6 E... 45 KT <!-- 22/1500H... 45.5 N 05.8 E... 50 KT -->
+
  22/1500H... 45.6 N 06.6 E... 40 KT <!-- 22/2100H... 45.4 N 06.8 E... 45 KT -->
−
  22/2100H... 45.6 N 06.1 E... 50 KT <!-- 23/0300H... 45.8 N 06.4 E... 55 KT -->
+
  23/0300H... 45.2 N 07.0 E... 45 KT...NEARING LANDFALL <!-- 23/0900H... 45.0 N 07.3 E... 40 KT...LANDFALL -->
−
23/0900H... 45.6 N 06.7 E... 55 KT <!-- 23/1500H... 45.4 N 06.8 E... 60 KT -->
+
  23/1500H... 44.5 N 07.8 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
−
  23/2100H... 45.2 N 07.0 E... 65 KT...SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL <!-- 24/0300H... 45.0 N 07.3 E... 65 KT...LANDFALL
+
  24/0300H...DISSIPATED
−
  24/0900H... 44.7 N 07.5 E... 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND  24/1500H... 44.5 N 07.8 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND -->
+
−
  24/2100H...DISSIPATED
+
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 44.9 N 5.3 E. MOVEMENT...NORTHWARD NEAR 8 KM/H.
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 45.3 N 5.7 E. MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 KM/H.
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 HPA.
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 HPA.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IN CYCLONESVILLE AT 8 PM HPT.
+
  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IN CYCLONESVILLE AT 9 AM HPT.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER STELIVA
+
  FORECASTER FRABANK
 
----
 
----
−
  INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN CORRECTED
+
  INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NUMBER TWO
 
  ISSUED VIA LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
 
  ISSUED VIA LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
 
  ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE WEATHER CENTRE WT6 AND WT7
 
  ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE WEATHER CENTRE WT6 AND WT7
 
  TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS 4520
 
  TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS 4520
−
  ISSUED AT 2100 WESTERN DAYLIGHT TIME... 9 PM HPT
+
  ISSUED AT 0330 WESTERN DAYLIGHT TIME... 3:30 AM HPT SEPT 22 2145
−
CORRECTED SPELLING OF VOMETIVA
+
 
   
 
   
 
  AFFECTING THE REGIONS OF...
 
  AFFECTING THE REGIONS OF...
 
  WT6...
 
  WT6...
−
  NORTHWESTERN SREZENECA DISTRICT
+
  WESTERN SREZENECA DISTRICT
 
  WT7...
 
  WT7...
 
  DANYEVICA DISTRICT
 
  DANYEVICA DISTRICT
 
  WESTERN VOMETIVA DISTRICT
 
  WESTERN VOMETIVA DISTRICT
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS HAS STRENGTHENED FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE
+
  TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS IT SPEEDS UP AND MOVES CLOSER TO
−
  COAST OF THE WESTERN TERRITORIES. THE MOST RECENT MSHPC ADVISORY (4520 TCWC HPCWT)
+
  THE WT COAST. RECENT MSHPC INFORMATION... 4520 TCWC HPCWT ISSUED AT 0300 WDT...
−
ISSUED AT 2100 WDT INDICATES A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...
+
  INDICATES A GROWING WIND FIELD, WITH WINDS OF AT LEAST 34 KNOTS EXTENDING
−
  IT ALSO INDICATES A GROWING WIND FIELD, WITH WINDS OF AT LEAST 34 KNOTS EXTENDING
+
  OUTWARDS UP TO 435 KM. HOWEVER... THE OFFICIAL MSHPC FORECAST... WHILE CALLING
−
  OUTWARDS UP TO 410 KM.
+
FOR SHORT-TERM WEAKENING... CALLS FOR RESTRENGTHENING IN THE LONG RUN BEFORE
 +
LANDFALL AROUND 24 HOURS.
 +
 +
WARNING SIGNAL 1 IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF SREZENECA.
 +
WARNING SIGNAL 1 INCLUDES AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND INDICATES
 +
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE GUSTS ABOVE 34 KT - 64 KM/H - ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
 +
AREA INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT ALSO INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY
 +
OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS INLAND WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE GOVERNMENT OF THE WESTERN TERRITORIES HAS ISSUED WARNING SIGNAL 1 FOR THE
+
  THE GOVERNMENT OF THE WESTERN TERRITORIES HAS UPGRADED WARNING SIGNAL 1 FOR
−
  DISTRICTS LISTED ABOVE. WARNING SIGNAL 1 INCLUDES AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND
+
  NORTHWESTERN SREZENECA... DANYEVICA... AND WESTERN VOMETIVA... TO WARNING SIGNAL
−
  INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE GUSTS ABOVE 34 KT - 64 KM/H - ARE EXPECTED IN
+
  2. WARNING SIGNAL 2 MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KM/H - 65 KM/H ARE CURRENTLY
−
  THE WARNING AREA INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT ALSO INDICATES THE
+
  OCCURRING... OR ARE IMMINENT. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
−
  POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS INLAND WITHIN 36 HOURS.
+
  WITH WARNING SIGNAL 2... INDICATING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
 +
24 HOURS.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS AGAINST STRONG WINDS.
+
  THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS AGAINST STRONG WINDS AND
 +
HEAVY RAIN.
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEAT... AT 9 PM WDT... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DANYEVICA...
+
  REPEAT... AT 3 AM WDT... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DANYEVICA...
−
  THE WESTERN PORTION OF VOMETIVA.... AND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF SREZENECA.
+
  THE WESTERN PORTION OF VOMETIVA.... AND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF SREZENECA. AN
 +
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF SREZENECA.
 
   
 
   
 
  THE NEXT INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN WILL BE JOINTLY ISSUED BY SWC WT6 AND WT7
 
  THE NEXT INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN WILL BE JOINTLY ISSUED BY SWC WT6 AND WT7
−
  BY 0400 WDT.
+
  BY 1000 WDT.
 
   
 
   
 
  END WARNING
 
  END WARNING
 
  MET SERVICE FOLENISA//
 
  MET SERVICE FOLENISA//

Revision as of 11:46, 22 December 2006

Latest storm information
Tropical Storm Douglas
Tropical storm
As of: 0200 local time September 22, 2145
Location: 45.3°N 5.7°E
About 1260 km (785 miles) west-northwest of Norpod City (formerly North Podgorica City)
Maximum
winds: 		75 km/h (45 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 999 hPa
Movement: Northeast at 22 km/h (13 mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4520 TCWC HPCWT
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS (4520) ADVISORY/DISCUSSION 006
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC CYCLONESVILLE, WT WARNINGS SUB-BUREAU
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME SEP 22 2145

NOTICE - DUE TO THE OPERATIONAL SHUTDOWN OF THE MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
NO WARNING GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE FOR WARNING NR. 6. AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DOES NOT ANTICIPATE THE OREAN HQ BEING UP IN TIME TO ISSUE A GRAPHIC...
THE WT GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED TEXT WARNINGS.

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS GAINS IN FORWARD SPEED AND WEAKENS...

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS RAPIDLY MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AT ALMOST 030/12... AND IS FORECAST TO GAIN IN FORWARD SPEED. DOUGLAS
HAS ALSO MOVED... EARLIER THAN EXPECTED... INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SSTS. A
HURRICANE IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED... ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE WESTERN
TERRITORIES.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE
NEAR LATITUDE 45.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.7 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 1260 KM... 785 MI...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORPOD CITY, CRNA GORA LIV ENG... FORMERLY NORTH PODGORICA CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF LIVERPOOL
ENGLAND FROM 46.8N 6.9E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 1775 KM NORTHWEST OF CYCLONESVILLE
SOUTHWARD TO 43.7N 7.3E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 710 KM WEST OF NORPOD CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF LIVERPOOL
ENGLAND FROM 46.2N 7.0E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 550 KM WEST OF THE COMMEMORATION
LANDMARK... SOUTHWARD TO 44.9N 7.2E... ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 1615 KM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF CYCLONESVILLE.

IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H OR 13 MPH. A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 KM/H... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 999 HPA.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 435 KM... 270 MI... FROM THE CENTRE
OF THE STORM... AND THIS WIND FIELD MAY GET LARGER AS THE STORM BECOMES FRONTAL IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL BY TAU36.

GIVEN THE SUDDEN RAPID MOVEMENT OF TS4520 GENERALLY TO THE NE AND THE WEAKENING ALONG
WITH IT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER CALLS FOR A HURRICANE DUE TO DECREASED
SSTS. HOWEVER... SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING... POSSIBLY TO INTENSE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
OF 50 KT AND ABOVE... IS POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH THE FINAL FORECAST... BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF AFLE, HDCW AND UHWF MODELS... CALLS FOR A PEAK AT 45 KT IN 18-24 HR.

AS AN INTERESTING NOTE... DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS FROM AFLE SUGGEST STT D0.6
OVER 06 HRS... ALTHOUGH BOTH HDCW AND UHWF REPORT STT W0.6/06HRS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 22/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 45.3 N 05.7 E... 40 KT 
22/0900H... 45.5 N 06.2 E... 35 KT 
22/1500H... 45.6 N 06.6 E... 40 KT 
23/0300H... 45.2 N 07.0 E... 45 KT...NEARING LANDFALL 
23/1500H... 44.5 N 07.8 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
24/0300H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 45.3 N 5.7 E. MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 HPA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IN CYCLONESVILLE AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER FRABANK

INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NUMBER TWO
ISSUED VIA LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE WEATHER CENTRE WT6 AND WT7
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS 4520
ISSUED AT 0330 WESTERN DAYLIGHT TIME... 3:30 AM HPT SEPT 22 2145

AFFECTING THE REGIONS OF...
WT6...
WESTERN SREZENECA DISTRICT
WT7...
DANYEVICA DISTRICT
WESTERN VOMETIVA DISTRICT

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS IT SPEEDS UP AND MOVES CLOSER TO
THE WT COAST. RECENT MSHPC INFORMATION... 4520 TCWC HPCWT ISSUED AT 0300 WDT...
INDICATES A GROWING WIND FIELD, WITH WINDS OF AT LEAST 34 KNOTS EXTENDING
OUTWARDS UP TO 435 KM. HOWEVER... THE OFFICIAL MSHPC FORECAST... WHILE CALLING
FOR SHORT-TERM WEAKENING... CALLS FOR RESTRENGTHENING IN THE LONG RUN BEFORE
LANDFALL AROUND 24 HOURS.

WARNING SIGNAL 1 IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF SREZENECA.
WARNING SIGNAL 1 INCLUDES AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND INDICATES
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE GUSTS ABOVE 34 KT - 64 KM/H - ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT ALSO INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY
OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS INLAND WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE WESTERN TERRITORIES HAS UPGRADED WARNING SIGNAL 1 FOR
NORTHWESTERN SREZENECA... DANYEVICA... AND WESTERN VOMETIVA... TO WARNING SIGNAL
2. WARNING SIGNAL 2 MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KM/H - 65 KM/H ARE CURRENTLY
OCCURRING... OR ARE IMMINENT. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
WITH WARNING SIGNAL 2... INDICATING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
24 HOURS.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS AGAINST STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

REPEAT... AT 3 AM WDT... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DANYEVICA...
THE WESTERN PORTION OF VOMETIVA.... AND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF SREZENECA. AN
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF SREZENECA.

THE NEXT INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN WILL BE JOINTLY ISSUED BY SWC WT6 AND WT7
BY 1000 WDT.

END WARNING
MET SERVICE FOLENISA//
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