Difference between revisions of "TD01 (2146)"

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{{Active storm|name=Tropical Depression One
 
{{Active storm|name=Tropical Depression One
 
|category=depression|type=Tropical depression
 
|category=depression|type=Tropical depression
−
|time=2100 HPT
+
|time=0300 HPT
−
|date=March 29
+
|date=March 30
 
|year=2146
 
|year=2146
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 2.8°N 39.0°E]<br/>About 3420 km (2135 mi) southeast of the former settlement of Rechon, Holy Socks
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 2.8°N 38.9°E]<br/>About 3420 km (2135 mi) southeast of the former settlement of Rechon, Holy Socks
−
|winds=55 km/h (35 mph)
+
|winds=45 km/h (30 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
−
|pressure=997 hPa
+
|pressure=1001 hPa
 
|movement=West-southwest very slowly}}
 
|movement=West-southwest very slowly}}
 
----
 
----
−
  TCAD1 HPCOR 292140
+
  TCAD1 HPCOR 300345
−
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) ADVISORY 002
+
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) ADVISORY 003
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
−
  9 PM HPT MARCH 29 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME
+
  3 AM HPT MARCH 30 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY...
+
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE STARTS TO WEAKEN...
−
THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SENT TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AT 5 PM HPT
+
−
FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND ADVISORIES WERE INITIATED AT 5:30. DEEP CONVECTIVE
+
−
BAND TRYING TO FORM. STRENGTHENING LLCC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0/30KT
+
−
FROM UHWF... AND 2.5/35KT FROM HDCW AND AFLE. HOWEVER... SINCE THERE ARE NO
+
−
INDICATIONS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS OTHERWISE REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
+
−
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD TO 30 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 255/01.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 9:00 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
+
  RECONNAISSANCE DATA FROM A FLIGHT IN AT 2 AM HPT SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION  
−
  2.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 39.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF THE
+
LOCATED EAST OF THE BLUDRAGON EMBASSY TERRITORY HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE LAST
−
SETTLEMENT THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H
+
  FLIGHT AT 5 PM. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED... AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. LLCC
−
  OR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 997 HPA.
+
CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO CONSOLIDATE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM HDCW
−
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY.
+
IS T2.0/30 KT... UHWF ESTIMATE IS DOWN TO A T1.5/25 KT. BASED ON WEAKENING
 +
  SYSTEM... INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT
 +
  CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUAL INTENSITY MAY STILL BE 30 KT. THE RECON FAILED TO GET A
 +
GOOD WIND SPEED READING. INITIAL MOTION IS 255/01.
 
   
 
   
−
  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AROUND 15 KT... AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
+
  AT 3:00 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
−
  29 DEG CELSIUS. SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 35 KT NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM... SO
+
  2.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 38.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF
−
  ANY MOVEMENT IN THAT DIRECTION WOULD KILL THE DEPRESSION. SSTS DROP OFF TO AROUND 27C
+
  THE  SETTLEMENT THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
−
  WEST OF THE SYSTEM... BUT THE 26-DEGREE ISOTHERM IS QUITE FAR TO THE WEST... MEANING
+
  HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 KM/H... 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
−
  THAT THERE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT HEAT CONTENT TO SUSTAIN A STORM. SHEAR ON THAT SIDE
+
  PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 1001 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
−
  GROWS TO 40 KT AROUND 37.5E LONGITUDE.
+
  IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY.
 
   
 
   
−
  HDCW MODEL NOW TRACKS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WSW... BUT NEVER GOING FARTHER WEST THAN
+
  SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE DEPRESSION ARE STARTING TO FALL AS THE SYSTEM
−
  38.5E LONGITUDE WITHIN 144 HOURS. UHWF INITIALISES SYSTEM WEAKLY... BUT STRENGTHENS
+
USES UP THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WATER. SHEAR REMAINS A BEARABLE 20 KT... BUT
−
  IT TO A 50-KT INTENSE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE RAPID WEAKENING. OFFICIAL FORECAST
+
  GROWS TO 40 KT EITHER SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. ALL THIS SPELLS A QUICK END FOR
−
  WILL FOLLOW HDCW... AND WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR NOTHING MORE THAN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
+
THE DEPRESSION IN SIGHT.
 +
 +
HDCW STALLS THE SYSTEM AND WEAKENS IT TO A REMNANT LOW OF AROUND 1010 HPA IN
 +
ABOUT 72 HOURS. UHWF CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING... ALTHOUGH NOT AS
 +
  BULLISH AS LAST TIME AROUND... AND NOW ONLY CALLS FOR A 35-KT MINIMAL TROPICAL
 +
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HDCW IN DROPPING THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT
 +
  LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 72 HOURS...
 +
BUT DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR QUICKER THAN THAT.
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
−
  INITIAL TIME... 29/2100H
+
  INITIAL TIME... 30/0300H
−
   INITIAL... 02.8 N 39.0 E... 30 KT <!-- 30/0300H... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 30 KT -->
+
   INITIAL... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING <!-- 30/0900H... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING -->
−
  30/0900H... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 30 KT <!-- 30/1500H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 30 KT -->
+
  30/1500H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW <!-- 30/2100H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW -->
−
  30/2100H... 02.7 N 38.8 E... 30 KT <!-- 31/0300H... 02.7 N 38.8 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING -->
+
  31/0300H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW <!-- 31/0900H... 02.7 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW -->
−
  31/0900H... 02.7 N 38.8 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING <!-- 31/1500H... 02.7 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW -->
+
  31/1500H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW <!-- 31/2100H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW -->
−
  31/2100H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
+
  01/0300H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 15 KT...REMNANT LOW
−
  01/2100H...DISSIPATED
+
  02/0300H...DISSIPATED
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 39.0 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H.
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 38.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H.
−
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY.
+
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 0345 HPT.
+
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 0945 HPT.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER RINDLI
+
  FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
----
 
----
−
  BPCT1 HPCOR 292200
+
  BPCT1 HPCOR 300400
−
  DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1 (4601)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2
+
  DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1 (4601)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
−
  BULLETIN À 21 HEURES HPT, 29 MARS 2146
+
  BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 30 MARS 2146
 
   
 
   
−
  DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1/4601 [997 HPA].
+
  DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1/4601 [1001 HPA].
 
   
 
   
−
  POSITION LE 29 MARS A 21 HEURES HPT: 02.8 NORD / 39.0 EST
+
  POSITION LE 30 MARS A 03 HEURES HPT: 02.8 NORD / 38.9 EST
−
  (DEUX DEGRES HUIT NORD ET TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES EST)
+
  (DEUX DEGRES HUIT NORD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
 
   
 
   
 
  DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST À 1 KT
 
  DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST À 1 KT
 
   
 
   
−
  VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
+
  DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTÈME.
−
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:
+
−
+
−
DÉPRESSION TROPICALE (30 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 02.7N 38.8E
+
−
+
−
CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
+
−
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 04 HEURES HPT.
+

Revision as of 03:46, 27 March 2007

Latest storm information
Tropical Depression One
Tropical depression
As of: 0300 HPT March 30, 2146
Location: 2.8°N 38.9°E
About 3420 km (2135 mi) southeast of the former settlement of Rechon, Holy Socks
Maximum
winds: 		45 km/h (30 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1001 hPa
Movement: West-southwest very slowly
Past advisories and discussions available here 
TCAD1 HPCOR 300345
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 AM HPT MARCH 30 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE STARTS TO WEAKEN...

RECONNAISSANCE DATA FROM A FLIGHT IN AT 2 AM HPT SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION 
LOCATED EAST OF THE BLUDRAGON EMBASSY TERRITORY HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE LAST
FLIGHT AT 5 PM. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED... AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. LLCC
CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO CONSOLIDATE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM HDCW
IS T2.0/30 KT... UHWF ESTIMATE IS DOWN TO A T1.5/25 KT. BASED ON WEAKENING
SYSTEM... INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT
CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUAL INTENSITY MAY STILL BE 30 KT. THE RECON FAILED TO GET A
GOOD WIND SPEED READING. INITIAL MOTION IS 255/01.

AT 3:00 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
2.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 38.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF
THE  SETTLEMENT THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 KM/H... 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 1001 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY.

SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE DEPRESSION ARE STARTING TO FALL AS THE SYSTEM
USES UP THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WATER. SHEAR REMAINS A BEARABLE 20 KT... BUT
GROWS TO 40 KT EITHER SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. ALL THIS SPELLS A QUICK END FOR
THE DEPRESSION IN SIGHT.

HDCW STALLS THE SYSTEM AND WEAKENS IT TO A REMNANT LOW OF AROUND 1010 HPA IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS. UHWF CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING... ALTHOUGH NOT AS
BULLISH AS LAST TIME AROUND... AND NOW ONLY CALLS FOR A 35-KT MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HDCW IN DROPPING THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 72 HOURS...
BUT DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR QUICKER THAN THAT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 30/0300H
 INITIAL... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING 
30/1500H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 
31/0300H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 
31/1500H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 
01/0300H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 15 KT...REMNANT LOW
02/0300H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 38.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 0945 HPT.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

BPCT1 HPCOR 300400
DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1 (4601)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 30 MARS 2146

DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1/4601 [1001 HPA].

POSITION LE 30 MARS A 03 HEURES HPT: 02.8 NORD / 38.9 EST
(DEUX DEGRES HUIT NORD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)

DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST À 1 KT

DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTÈME.
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