Difference between revisions of "TD01 (2146)"

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{{Active storm|name=Tropical Depression One
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  TCAD1 HPCOR 300945
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|category=depression|type=Tropical depression
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  TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) ADVISORY 004 [FINAL]
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|time=0300 HPT
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|date=March 30
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|year=2146
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|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 2.8°N 38.9°E]<br/>About 3420 km (2135 mi) southeast of the former settlement of Rechon, Holy Socks
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|winds=45 km/h (30 mph)
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|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=1001 hPa
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|movement=West-southwest very slowly}}
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----
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  TCAD1 HPCOR 300345
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  TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) ADVISORY 003
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  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
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  3 AM HPT MARCH 30 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME
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  9 AM HPT MARCH 30 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME
 
   
 
   
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  TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE STARTS TO WEAKEN...
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  TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH LITTLE DEEP
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CONVECTION. AS SUCH... ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED.
 
   
 
   
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  RECONNAISSANCE DATA FROM A FLIGHT IN AT 2 AM HPT SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION
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  A WELL-DEFINED LLCC IS OBVIOUS ON ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER
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LOCATED EAST OF THE BLUDRAGON EMBASSY TERRITORY HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE LAST
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THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION.
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  FLIGHT AT 5 PM. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED... AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. LLCC
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  RAPID WEAKENING RESULTED IN A T0.5/2.5/W2.0/12HRS FROM HDCW. UHWF REFUSES TO
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CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO CONSOLIDATE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM HDCW
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  CLASSIFY SYSTEM. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 15 KT BASED ON BUOY REPORT.
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IS T2.0/30 KT... UHWF ESTIMATE IS DOWN TO A T1.5/25 KT. BASED ON WEAKENING
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  INITIAL MOTION IS 255/01.
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  SYSTEM... INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT
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  CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUAL INTENSITY MAY STILL BE 30 KT. THE RECON FAILED TO GET A
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GOOD WIND SPEED READING. INITIAL MOTION IS 255/01.
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  AT 3:00 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
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  AT 9:00 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF THE REMNANT LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 2.8 NORTH
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2.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 38.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF
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LONGITUDE 38.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF THE SETTLEMENT
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  THE  SETTLEMENT THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
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  THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT. MINIMUM
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HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 KM/H... 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
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  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 HPA. THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST
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  PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 1001 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
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VERY SLOWLY.
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IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY.
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  SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE DEPRESSION ARE STARTING TO FALL AS THE SYSTEM
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  THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 60 HOURS BASED ON THE HDCW MODEL
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USES UP THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WATER. SHEAR REMAINS A BEARABLE 20 KT... BUT
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  ALTHOUGH IT COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THAT.
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GROWS TO 40 KT EITHER SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. ALL THIS SPELLS A QUICK END FOR
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THE DEPRESSION IN SIGHT.
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HDCW STALLS THE SYSTEM AND WEAKENS IT TO A REMNANT LOW OF AROUND 1010 HPA IN
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ABOUT 72 HOURS. UHWF CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING... ALTHOUGH NOT AS
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BULLISH AS LAST TIME AROUND... AND NOW ONLY CALLS FOR A 35-KT MINIMAL TROPICAL
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STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HDCW IN DROPPING THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT
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LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 72 HOURS...
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  BUT DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR QUICKER THAN THAT.
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  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
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  INITIAL TIME... 30/0300H
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  INITIAL TIME... 30/0900H
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   INITIAL... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING <!-- 30/0900H... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING -->
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   INITIAL... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 15 KT...REMNANT LOW
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  30/1500H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW <!-- 30/2100H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW -->
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  30/2100H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 15 KT...REMNANT LOW
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  31/0300H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW <!-- 31/0900H... 02.7 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW -->
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  31/0900H... 02.7 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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  31/1500H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW <!-- 31/2100H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW -->
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  31/2100H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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  01/0300H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 15 KT...REMNANT LOW
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  01/0900H...DISSIPATED
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02/0300H...DISSIPATED
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REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 38.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H.
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MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY.
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THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 0945 HPT.
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FORECASTER JARVINEN
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BPCT1 HPCOR 300400
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DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1 (4601)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3
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LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
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BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 30 MARS 2146
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DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1/4601 [1001 HPA].
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  POSITION LE 30 MARS A 03 HEURES HPT: 02.8 NORD / 38.9 EST
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  REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 38.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS VERY LIGHT.
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  (DEUX DEGRES HUIT NORD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
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  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY.
 
   
 
   
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  DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST À 1 KT
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  THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS TROPICAL REGENERATION
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OCCURS.
 
   
 
   
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  DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTÈME.
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  FORECASTER HUNTER

Revision as of 02:08, 28 March 2007

TCAD1 HPCOR 300945
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) ADVISORY 004 [FINAL]
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 AM HPT MARCH 30 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION. AS SUCH... ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED.

A WELL-DEFINED LLCC IS OBVIOUS ON ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER
THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION.
RAPID WEAKENING RESULTED IN A T0.5/2.5/W2.0/12HRS FROM HDCW. UHWF REFUSES TO
CLASSIFY SYSTEM. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 15 KT BASED ON BUOY REPORT.
INITIAL MOTION IS 255/01.

AT 9:00 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF THE REMNANT LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 2.8 NORTH
LONGITUDE 38.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF THE SETTLEMENT
THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 HPA. THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST
VERY SLOWLY.

THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 60 HOURS BASED ON THE HDCW MODEL
ALTHOUGH IT COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THAT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 30/0900H
 INITIAL... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 15 KT...REMNANT LOW
30/2100H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 15 KT...REMNANT LOW
31/0900H... 02.7 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
31/2100H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
01/0900H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 38.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS VERY LIGHT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS TROPICAL REGENERATION
OCCURS.

FORECASTER HUNTER
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