Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)/Past"

From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
Jump to: navigation, search
Line 108: Line 108:
 
  FCST 11HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
 
  FCST 11HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
 
  NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 17 2146=
 
  NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 17 2146=
 +
 +
==Advisory 2==
 +
TCAD4 WHLC 171545
 +
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR [4604] ADVISORY 2
 +
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 +
MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU
 +
3 PM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME
 +
 +
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM YET...
 +
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ODIPOUS...
 +
 +
BASED ON EARLIER DATA...I COULD POSSIBLY HAVE JUSTIFIED UPGRADING TD-FOUR
 +
TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES HAVE EVENED OUT
 +
AT T2.0/30 KT FROM AFLE AND HDCW...AND REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM UHWF. SINCE
 +
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HASN'T BECOME ANY BETTER...AND WITH A LACK OF
 +
OTHER JUSTIFICATION FOR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 +
HELD...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...AT 30 KT. ANOTHER HEARTLAND WEATHER
 +
SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM
 +
LATER TONIGHT. INITIAL MOTION...325/13.
 +
 +
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...
 +
INCLUDING THE ULE MILITARY BASE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
 +
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
 +
HOURS. EVEN IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FAILS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
 +
LANDFALL...THE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE DEPRESSION CLEARS
 +
THE ISLANDS.
 +
 +
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
 +
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 +
 +
REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
 +
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 +
 +
AT 3 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE
 +
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 42.9 EAST...OR ABOUT 260 KM...
 +
160 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS.
 +
 +
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 25 KM/H...
 +
15 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
 +
CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND
 +
BE NEAR OR OVER THE ULE MILITARY BASE IN 18 TO 24 HOURS.
 +
 +
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
 +
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD
 +
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.
 +
 +
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 HPA...29.65 INCHES OF
 +
MERCURY.
 +
 +
ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
 +
IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES.
 +
 +
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG
 +
THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND
 +
SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE
 +
HAS MOVED THROUGH.
 +
 +
THE FORECAST PROGNOSTIC HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 OR
 +
SO HOURS IS VERY STRONG...THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS
 +
IT IS DRIVEN BY STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
 +
STILL...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME. HOW MUCH A MID-TO-UPPER
 +
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL AFFECT ON THE RIDGE IS THE UNKNOWN.
 +
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUSLY...ASSUMING THAT IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH...THE
 +
OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS
 +
...AND IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN THE FIRST 48H. IT IS NOT A HIGH-
 +
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS...AND THE STORM COULD BE MOVING FASTER THAN
 +
FORECAST...OR EVEN IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION.
 +
 +
INTENSITY-WISE...THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM
 +
HASN'T MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH MIGHT GO SOME WAY TO EXPLAINING WHY THIS
 +
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. THERE IS STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
 +
STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES TENDIUM...BUT WE EXPECT THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL
 +
AGAIN SLOW ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING. BEYOND THAT...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY
 +
WARM...NEAR 28 C...AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. IF THE CYCLONE RETAINS
 +
ITS FAIRLY SMALL SIZE PAST ODIPOUS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.
 +
AGAIN...FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS NOT HIGH-CONFIDENCE. A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED
 +
FORWARD SPEED WOULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTENSITY...AS WOULD A DIFFERENT TRACK.
 +
 +
OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 +
INITIAL TIME...17/1500H
 +
  INITIAL... 17.9 N 42.9 E... 30 KT <!-- 17/2100H... 18.3 N 42.5 E... 35 KT -->
 +
18/0300H... 18.8 N 42.2 E... 35 KT <!-- 18/0900H... 19.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT -->
 +
18/1500H... 19.8 N 41.5 E... 35 KT <!-- 18/2100H... 20.3 N 41.2 E... 40 KT -->
 +
19/0300H... 20.7 N 40.8 E... 40 KT <!-- 19/0900H... 21.2 N 40.3 E... 45 KT -->
 +
19/1500H... 21.4 N 40.0 E... 50 KT <!-- 19/2100H... 21.6 N 39.7 E... 55 KT   
 +
20/0300H... 21.8 N 39.4 E... 55 KT      20/0900H... 22.0 N 39.1 E... 60 KT -->
 +
20/1500H... 22.4 N 38.6 E... 60 KT <!-- 20/2100H... 22.7 N 38.1 E... 60 KT
 +
21/0300H... 23.1 N 37.7 E... 65 KT      21/0900H... 23.4 N 37.2 E... 65 KT -->
 +
21/1500H... 24.0 N 36.6 E... 70 KT
 +
 +
REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 17.9 NORTH 42.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
 +
NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KT.
 +
 +
THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 7...WITH AN
 +
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1830 HPT.
 +
 +
FORECASTER RYAN
 +
----
 +
TCTW04 FOLN 171540
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 +
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE]] FOLENISA
 +
ISSUED 1540 HPT JUNE 17 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
 +
ACTIVE TIME:        1500H JUNE 17 2146
 +
WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE:  TD FOUR
 +
WARNING NR:        2
 +
POSITION:          17.9N 42.9E
 +
ACCURACY:          35NM
 +
MOVEMENT:          NW 13KT
 +
CENT PRES:          1004HPA
 +
MAX WIND:          30KT
 +
MAX GUST:          40KT
 +
FCST 12HR PSTN:    18.8N 42.2E
 +
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
 +
NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 17 2146=
 +
 +
===Intermediate Advisory 2A===
 +
TCIA4 WHLC 171820
 +
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 2A
 +
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY
 +
6 PM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME
 +
 +
...DEPRESSION STILL NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM...
 +
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM...
 +
 +
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS.
 +
 +
REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
 +
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 +
 +
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
 +
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 +
 +
AT 6 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE
 +
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 42.6 EAST...OR ABOUT 210 KM...
 +
130 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS. THIS POSITION IS SLIGHTLY
 +
WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM WOBBLE.
 +
IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT...AS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
 +
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE...
 +
RAINBANDS SHOULD ALREADY BE AFFECTING SOUTHERN ODIPOUS...AND WILL REACH
 +
LAND WELL BEFORE THE CENTRE DOES.
 +
 +
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 25 KM/H...
 +
15 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
 +
BEGIN TO CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS
 +
...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE ULE MILITARY BASE IN JUST OVER 12 HOURS.
 +
 +
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
 +
DESPITE AN APPARENT LACK OF STRENGTHENING IN SPITE OF GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
 +
CONDITIONS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REMAINS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
 +
...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
 +
STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTRE OF THE CYCLONE REACHES SOUTHERN ODIPOUS.
 +
 +
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
 +
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 HPA...29.62 INCHES OF MERCURY.
 +
 +
ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
 +
IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES.
 +
 +
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG
 +
THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND
 +
SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE
 +
HAS MOVED THROUGH.
 +
 +
REPEATING THE LATEST...6 PM...POSITION...18.0 N 42.6 E...ABOUT 230 KM SOUTHEAST
 +
OF TENDIUM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 HPA.
 +
MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST AT 25 KM/H.
 +
 +
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT.
 +
 +
FORECASTER RYAN

Revision as of 11:05, 13 September 2007

Advisory 1

TCAD4 WHLC 171025
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR [4604] ADVISORY 1
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU
10 AM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 8 AM PAX TIME

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ODIPOUS FINDS
A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF ODIPOUS
FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND 38 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS... ABOUT 32 KNOTS
AT THE SURFACE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 0645 PAX...0845 HPT...
WERE T1.5/25 KTS FROM AFLE...AND T2.5/35 KTS FROM UHWF AND HDCW. THIS DATA
WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD SKIP TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY
SINCE THE SAT FIXES...WILL GO FOR A CONSERVATIVE 30 KTS...MAKING THIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. INITIAL MOTION...330/14.

AT 10 AM HPT...8 AM PAX TIME...THE GOVERNMENT OF HERCONIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE CROWN COLONY OF ODIPOUS...
INCLUDING THE ULE MILITARY BASE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN WEST KOMPA
RU...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 10 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 43.2 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 420 KM...
260 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 26 KM/H...
16 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG
THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND
SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE
HAS MOVED THROUGH.

IN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST MODELS THAT...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STEERING CURRENTS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOUR WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF
ODIPOUS FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...MODELS START TO DIVERGE. AT BAT HERE
IS TO WHAT EXTENT A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ON THE RIDGE. ASSUMING THAT IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TURNS THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND SLOWS IT DOWN QUITE
A BIT FROM ITS CURRENT SPEED. OF COURSE...THIS IS BY NO MEANS A HIGH-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS...AND THE STORM COULD BE MOVING FASTER THAN FORECAST.

INTENSITY-WISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
IF IT MOVES OVER THE CYCLONE...SOME STRENGTHENING CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS RETARDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT...
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM...NEAR 28 C...AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
LOW. IF TD-FOUR IS STILL A FAIRLY SMALL SYSTEM PAST THE ISLANDS...THIS COULD LEAD
TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AGAIN...FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS NOT HIGH-CONFIDENCE.
A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED WOULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTENSITY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...17/1000H
 INITIAL... 17.4 N 43.2 E... 30 KT 
17/2100H... 18.3 N 42.5 E... 35 KT 
18/0900H... 19.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT 
18/2100H... 20.3 N 41.2 E... 45 KT 
19/0900H... 21.2 N 40.3 E... 50 KT 
20/0900H... 22.0 N 39.1 E... 60 KT
21/0900H... 22.9 N 37.9 E... 65 KT

REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION... NEAR 17.4 NORTH 43.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 7.

FORECASTER RYAN

TCTW04 FOLN 171030
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA
ISSUED 1030 HPT JUNE 17 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        1000H JUNE 17 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   TD FOUR
WARNING NR:         1
POSITION:           17.4N 43.2E
ACCURACY:           40NM
MOVEMENT:           NW 14KT
CENT PRES:          1006HPA
MAX WIND:           30KT
MAX GUST:           40KT
FCST 11HR PSTN:     18.3N 42.5E
FCST 11HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 17 2146=

Advisory 2

TCAD4 WHLC 171545
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR [4604] ADVISORY 2
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU
3 PM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM YET...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ODIPOUS...

BASED ON EARLIER DATA...I COULD POSSIBLY HAVE JUSTIFIED UPGRADING TD-FOUR
TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES HAVE EVENED OUT
AT T2.0/30 KT FROM AFLE AND HDCW...AND REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM UHWF. SINCE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HASN'T BECOME ANY BETTER...AND WITH A LACK OF
OTHER JUSTIFICATION FOR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...AT 30 KT. ANOTHER HEARTLAND WEATHER
SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM
LATER TONIGHT. INITIAL MOTION...325/13.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...
INCLUDING THE ULE MILITARY BASE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. EVEN IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FAILS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
LANDFALL...THE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE DEPRESSION CLEARS
THE ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 3 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 42.9 EAST...OR ABOUT 260 KM...
160 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 25 KM/H...
15 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND
BE NEAR OR OVER THE ULE MILITARY BASE IN 18 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 HPA...29.65 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG
THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND
SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE
HAS MOVED THROUGH.

THE FORECAST PROGNOSTIC HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 OR
SO HOURS IS VERY STRONG...THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT IS DRIVEN BY STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
STILL...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME. HOW MUCH A MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL AFFECT ON THE RIDGE IS THE UNKNOWN.
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUSLY...ASSUMING THAT IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS
...AND IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN THE FIRST 48H. IT IS NOT A HIGH-
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS...AND THE STORM COULD BE MOVING FASTER THAN
FORECAST...OR EVEN IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION.

INTENSITY-WISE...THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM
HASN'T MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH MIGHT GO SOME WAY TO EXPLAINING WHY THIS
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. THERE IS STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES TENDIUM...BUT WE EXPECT THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL
AGAIN SLOW ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING. BEYOND THAT...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY
WARM...NEAR 28 C...AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. IF THE CYCLONE RETAINS
ITS FAIRLY SMALL SIZE PAST ODIPOUS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.
AGAIN...FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS NOT HIGH-CONFIDENCE. A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED
FORWARD SPEED WOULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTENSITY...AS WOULD A DIFFERENT TRACK.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...17/1500H
 INITIAL... 17.9 N 42.9 E... 30 KT 
18/0300H... 18.8 N 42.2 E... 35 KT 
18/1500H... 19.8 N 41.5 E... 35 KT 
19/0300H... 20.7 N 40.8 E... 40 KT 
19/1500H... 21.4 N 40.0 E... 50 KT 
20/1500H... 22.4 N 38.6 E... 60 KT 
21/1500H... 24.0 N 36.6 E... 70 KT

REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 17.9 NORTH 42.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 7...WITH AN
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1830 HPT.

FORECASTER RYAN

TCTW04 FOLN 171540
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA
ISSUED 1540 HPT JUNE 17 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        1500H JUNE 17 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   TD FOUR
WARNING NR:         2
POSITION:           17.9N 42.9E
ACCURACY:           35NM
MOVEMENT:           NW 13KT
CENT PRES:          1004HPA
MAX WIND:           30KT
MAX GUST:           40KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     18.8N 42.2E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 17 2146=

Intermediate Advisory 2A

TCIA4 WHLC 171820
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 2A
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY
6 PM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME

...DEPRESSION STILL NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM...
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 6 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 42.6 EAST...OR ABOUT 210 KM...
130 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS. THIS POSITION IS SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM WOBBLE.
IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT...AS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE...
RAINBANDS SHOULD ALREADY BE AFFECTING SOUTHERN ODIPOUS...AND WILL REACH
LAND WELL BEFORE THE CENTRE DOES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 25 KM/H...
15 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
BEGIN TO CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS
...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE ULE MILITARY BASE IN JUST OVER 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DESPITE AN APPARENT LACK OF STRENGTHENING IN SPITE OF GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REMAINS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTRE OF THE CYCLONE REACHES SOUTHERN ODIPOUS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 HPA...29.62 INCHES OF MERCURY.

ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG
THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND
SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE
HAS MOVED THROUGH.

REPEATING THE LATEST...6 PM...POSITION...18.0 N 42.6 E...ABOUT 230 KM SOUTHEAST
OF TENDIUM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 HPA.
MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST AT 25 KM/H.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT.

FORECASTER RYAN
Retrieved from "http://archive.nswiki.org/index.php?title=TD04/06_(2146)/Past&oldid=319224"