Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones

/Past advisories

TROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 006
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 8, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

PETROS FULLY TROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 7 METRES.

34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
NORTHEAST 20 KM
NORTHWEST 15 KM
SOUTHEAST 30 KM
SOUTHWEST 25 KM

NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND.

CURRENTLY ABOUT 520 KM NW OF BEREFORD.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1002 HECTOPASCALS.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS
INTENSITY:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 40 KT 1002 HPA
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 50 KNOTS 997 HPA.
C - COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NEAR -73 CELSIUS. PETROS IS STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY.
POSITIONING:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 520 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY
    OF BEREFORD.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 2150 KM EAST OF CITY OF FAUXHAN.
MOVEMENT:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 23 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 25 KM/H.
C - STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD UP.
WIND RADII:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 25/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW...
                                        50 KT... 05/05/10/05 KM NE/NW/SE/SW.
COMMENTS:
TROPICAL STORM PETROS HAS GAINED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO BUILD UP... AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF PETROS WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO PETROS SPEEDING UP SOON. BY TAU 72... PETROS
IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN FAUXHAN... PERHAPS AS A HURRICANE.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 525 KM  NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD...   45 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1295 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    55 KNOTS
IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 720 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...    60 KNOTS
IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 145 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...    65 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//