Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones

/Past advisories

TROPICAL STORM PETROS... SPECIAL ADVISORY... ADVISORY 007
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT MARCH 8, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...
PETROS SEEMS TO BE SHEARED APART BY THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
IT... FOR SOME REASON... IS LOSING TROPICALITY.

THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD START TO ABSORB PETROS... DRAGGING IT TO THE
WEST ALONG WITH IT... IF IT HASN'T ALREADY.

PETROS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED FROM THE SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED SEPERATE.

PETROS/EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING WEST AT 55 MPH... 90 KM/H... AND
THE SYSTEM MAY SPEED UP FURTHER AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE FAR SOUTH CLOSES IN.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 4 METRES.

34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
NORTHEAST 10 KM
NORTHWEST 15 KM
SOUTHEAST 15 KM
SOUTHWEST 15 KM

CURRENT INTENSITY... 40 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 3500 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON
THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL COULD BE MADE WITHIN TWO DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING PUT INTO PLACE FOR THE WHOLE NORTHERN COAST
OF VICTORLAND.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1005 HECTOPASCALS.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
TROPICAL STORM PETROS
INTENSITY:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 40 KT 1005 HPA
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 40 KNOTS 1007 HPA.
C - CLOUD TOPS WARMING. PETROS BEING SUCKED INTO LARGER FRONT... BUT WILL
    REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED TO BE CONSIDERED SEPERATE SYSTEM.
D - RMKS: RAPIDLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL.
POSITIONING:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 3500 KM EAST OF THE
    CITY OF FAUXHAN.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 1220 KM EAST OF THE CITY OF FAUXHAN.
C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48... IF NOT EARLIER.
D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND
    COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
MOVEMENT:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 90 - 95 KM/H.
C - STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD UP. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
    WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM'S MOVEMENT.
WIND RADII:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 10/15/15/20 KM NE/NW/SE/SW.

COMMENTS:
TROPICAL STORM PETROS SEEMS TO BE RAPIDLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL ON RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REASON IS UNCLEAR... ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS THAT THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF PETROS HAS PARTIALLY ABSORBED THE
TROPICAL STORM... ALTHOUGH PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED TO BE
CONSIDERED A SEPERATE CYCLONE. AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
PETROS WILL START TO MOVE EVEN FASTER... WHILE THE ATLANTIAN OCEANIA
WEATHER PICTURE DOES NOT PROVIDE GOOD REASONING. AS SUCH... GREATLY
EXTRAPOLATED TRACK HAS PETROS MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 36 TO TAU 48.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL
JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN
CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY
OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 3500 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    40 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 2420 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    40 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 1220 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    40 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 150 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...    30 KNOTS... LANDFALL MADE
IN 48 HRS... DISSIPATED

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//