Difference between revisions of "Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones"
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[[/Past advisories]] | [[/Past advisories]] | ||
| − | + | TROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 006 | |
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ||
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR | MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR | ||
| − | TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 | + | TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 8, 2145 |
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. | LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. | ||
| − | |||
| − | PETROS | + | PETROS FULLY TROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT. |
| − | MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT | + | MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 7 METRES. |
34-KNOT WIND RADIUS | 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS | ||
| − | NORTHEAST | + | NORTHEAST 20 KM |
NORTHWEST 15 KM | NORTHWEST 15 KM | ||
| − | SOUTHEAST | + | SOUTHEAST 30 KM |
| − | SOUTHWEST | + | SOUTHWEST 25 KM |
NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND. | NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND. | ||
| − | CURRENTLY ABOUT | + | CURRENTLY ABOUT 520 KM NW OF BEREFORD. |
FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT | FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT | ||
| − | + | 1002 HECTOPASCALS. | |
PROGNOSTIC REASONING// | PROGNOSTIC REASONING// | ||
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS | SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS | ||
INTENSITY: | INTENSITY: | ||
| − | A - | + | A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 40 KT 1002 HPA |
| − | + | B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 50 KNOTS 997 HPA. | |
| − | B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... | + | C - COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NEAR -73 CELSIUS. PETROS IS STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY. |
| − | C - | + | |
| − | + | ||
POSITIONING: | POSITIONING: | ||
| − | A - | + | A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 520 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY |
OF BEREFORD. | OF BEREFORD. | ||
| − | B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... | + | B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 2150 KM EAST OF CITY OF FAUXHAN. |
MOVEMENT: | MOVEMENT: | ||
| − | A - | + | A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 23 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. |
| − | B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT | + | B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 25 KM/H. |
| + | C - STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD UP. | ||
WIND RADII: | WIND RADII: | ||
| − | A - | + | A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE |
| − | B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... | + | B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 25/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW... |
| + | 50 KT... 05/05/10/05 KM NE/NW/SE/SW. | ||
COMMENTS: | COMMENTS: | ||
| − | + | TROPICAL STORM PETROS HAS GAINED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AND | |
| − | + | THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS | |
| − | + | STARTING TO BUILD UP... AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST | |
| − | + | OF PETROS WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO PETROS SPEEDING UP SOON. BY TAU 72... PETROS | |
| − | + | IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN FAUXHAN... PERHAPS AS A HURRICANE. | |
THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION | THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION | ||
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INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. | INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. | ||
| − | NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 | + | NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. |
FORECAST... | FORECAST... | ||
| − | CURRENTLY... ABOUT | + | CURRENTLY... ABOUT 525 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS |
| − | IN 12 HRS... ABOUT | + | IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD... 45 KNOTS |
| − | IN 24 HRS... ABOUT | + | IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS |
| − | IN 36 HRS... ABOUT | + | IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS |
| − | IN 48 HRS... ABOUT | + | IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1295 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 55 KNOTS |
| − | IN 72 HRS... ABOUT | + | IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 720 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 60 KNOTS |
| + | IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 145 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS | ||
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR | ||
| − | //FORECAST TEAM | + | //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA// |
[[Category:Atlantian Oceania]][[Category:Bazalonia]] | [[Category:Atlantian Oceania]][[Category:Bazalonia]] | ||
Revision as of 01:30, 24 August 2006
TROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 006 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 8, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS FULLY TROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 7 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 20 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 30 KM SOUTHWEST 25 KM NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND. CURRENTLY ABOUT 520 KM NW OF BEREFORD. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 40 KT 1002 HPA B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 50 KNOTS 997 HPA. C - COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NEAR -73 CELSIUS. PETROS IS STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY. POSITIONING: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 520 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 2150 KM EAST OF CITY OF FAUXHAN. MOVEMENT: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 23 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 25 KM/H. C - STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD UP. WIND RADII: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 25/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW... 50 KT... 05/05/10/05 KM NE/NW/SE/SW. COMMENTS: TROPICAL STORM PETROS HAS GAINED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD UP... AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PETROS WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO PETROS SPEEDING UP SOON. BY TAU 72... PETROS IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN FAUXHAN... PERHAPS AS A HURRICANE. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 525 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD... 45 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1295 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 55 KNOTS IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 720 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 60 KNOTS IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 145 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
