Difference between revisions of "Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones"
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AOTC LEMS HPCPH | AOTC LEMS HPCPH | ||
− | SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... SPECIAL ADVISORY... ADVISORY 008 | + | SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... SPECIAL ADVISORY... ADVISORY 008...CORRECTED |
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ||
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR | MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR | ||
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 9, 2145 | TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 9, 2145 | ||
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. | LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. | ||
+ | CORRECTED FOR SUBTROPICAL MENTION IN PROG-REASON. | ||
PETROS CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICALITY... STATUS CHANGED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM... | PETROS CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICALITY... STATUS CHANGED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM... | ||
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CYCLONE TAKING A TOLL ON PETROS. | CYCLONE TAKING A TOLL ON PETROS. | ||
POSITIONING: | POSITIONING: | ||
− | A - | + | A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 2250 KM EAST OF THE |
CITY OF FAUXHAN. | CITY OF FAUXHAN. | ||
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... INLAND NEAR FAUXHAN. | B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... INLAND NEAR FAUXHAN. | ||
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24 HOURS. | 24 HOURS. | ||
MOVEMENT: | MOVEMENT: | ||
− | A - | + | A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. |
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 105 - 110 KM/H. | B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 105 - 110 KM/H. | ||
C - PETROS ALMOST EATEN UP BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... BUT A SMALL | C - PETROS ALMOST EATEN UP BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... BUT A SMALL | ||
TROPICAL PORTION OF PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED. | TROPICAL PORTION OF PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED. | ||
WIND RADII: | WIND RADII: | ||
− | A - | + | A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE |
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS. | B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS. | ||
Revision as of 06:52, 31 August 2006
AOTC LEMS HPCPH SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... SPECIAL ADVISORY... ADVISORY 008...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 9, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED FOR SUBTROPICAL MENTION IN PROG-REASON. PETROS CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICALITY... STATUS CHANGED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM... MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 3 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 10 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 15 KM SOUTHWEST 15 KM CURRENT INTENSITY... 35 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 2250 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WILL BE MADE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ENTIRE VICTORLAND COAST ARE BEING UPGRADED AT THIS TIME TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 35 KT 1007 HPA B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... DISSIPATING C - CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO AS WARM AS -40 DEG C. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TAKING A TOLL ON PETROS. POSITIONING: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 2250 KM EAST OF THE CITY OF FAUXHAN. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... INLAND NEAR FAUXHAN. C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24... IF NOT EARLIER. D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. MOVEMENT: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 105 - 110 KM/H. C - PETROS ALMOST EATEN UP BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... BUT A SMALL TROPICAL PORTION OF PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED. WIND RADII: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS. COMMENTS: SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL... WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 2250 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 35 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 1200 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 35 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... INLAND 100 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 30 KNOTS...DISSIPATING IN 36 HRS... DISSIPATED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//