Difference between revisions of "Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones"

Revision as of 02:44, 10 September 2006

See also all past AO TC advisories

AOTC LEMS HPCPH
HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT JUNE 11, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

ALLANI/DAGON UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
HURRICANE WARNINGS... HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS FOR
ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR
COAST OF BIG ISLAND OF CASARI FROM ASTRA NORTHWARD TO KELSIA... TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 14 METRES.

WIND RADII...
34-KT
160 KM NE QUADRANT
175 KM NW QUADRANT
150 KM SE QUADRANT
155 KM SW QUADRANT

50-KT
105 KM NE QUADRANT
120 KM NW QUADRANT
 90 KM SE QUADRANT
 90 KM SW QUADRANT

64-KT
60 KM NE QUADRANT
70 KM NW QUADRANT
45 KM SE QUADRANT
40 KM SW QUADRANT

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON
INTENSITY:
A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENT INTENSITY +70 KT 80 MPH 130 KM/H+ 979 HPA MBAR
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... +65 KT 75 MPH 120 KM/H+ 986 HPA MBAR
POSITIONING:
A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 315 KM 195 MILES EAST OF CARLTON CASARI.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 150 KM 95 MI WEST OF DALKAR CASARI.
C - LANDFALL FORECAST: LANDFALL ON CARLTON CASARI WITHIN 24 HOURS.
D - WARNINGS: HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI.
              TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF CASARI FROM ASTRA
              NORTHWARD TO KELSIA.
MOVEMENT:
A - ALLANI-DAGON MOVEMENT OVER LAST 12 HOURS WEST AT NEAR 24 KM/H 15 MPH.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 24 KM/H 15 MPH.

COMMENTS:
BASED ON SATELLITE APPEARANCE... ALLANI-DAGON IS NOW A HURRICANE AND WILL
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CARLTON CASARI WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIVESTOCK, LIVES AND LIMIT DAMAGE SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED OR BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL WARNING JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN
OCEANIA... SO THIS ADVISORY IS WHOLLY UNOFFICIAL AND PROVIDED ONLY AS A
WARNING/FORECAST.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST... KM/MILES/DIR. FROM CLOSEST CITY... WINDSPEED
                                              KT/MPH/KM/H
CURRENTLY... 315 KM 195 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 70/80/130 CAT 1
IN 12 HRS...  25 KM  15 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 85/100/155 CAT 2
IN 24 HRS... 150 KM  95 MI WEST  DALKAR CAS... 65/75/120 CAT 1
IN 36 HRS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 80/95/150 CAT 1
IN 48 HRS...  55 KM  35 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 90/105/165 CAT 2
IN 60 HRS...   INLAND VERY NEAR  INSLOW CAS... 50/60/95
IN 84 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR WILLINGBY CAS... 35/40/60

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//