Difference between revisions of "Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones"

Revision as of 02:21, 15 September 2006

AO-Two Allani-Dagon

AOTC LEMS HPCPH
HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 AM HPT JUNE 12, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

ALLANI/DAGON UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
HURRICANE WARNINGS... HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS FOR
ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR
COAST OF BIG ISLAND OF CASARI FROM ASTRA NORTHWARD TO KELSIA... TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 26 METRES.

WIND RADII...
34-KT
160 KM NE QUADRANT
175 KM NW QUADRANT
150 KM SE QUADRANT
155 KM SW QUADRANT

50-KT
105 KM NE QUADRANT
120 KM NW QUADRANT
 90 KM SE QUADRANT
 90 KM SW QUADRANT

64-KT
60 KM NE QUADRANT
70 KM NW QUADRANT
45 KM SE QUADRANT
40 KM SW QUADRANT

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCED IN CARLTON, CASARI.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON
INTENSITY:
A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENT INTENSITY +85 KT 100 MPH 155 KM/H+ 972 HPA MBAR
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... +80 KT 95 MPH 150 KM/H+ 976 HPA MBAR
POSITIONING:
A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 25 KM 15 MILES EAST OF CARLTON CASARI.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST OF ADDISON CASARI.
C - LANDFALL FORECAST: LANDFALL ON CARLTON CASARI WITHIN NEXT HOUR.
D - WARNINGS: HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI.
              TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF CASARI FROM ASTRA
              NORTHWARD TO KELSIA.
MOVEMENT:
A - ALLANI-DAGON MOVEMENT OVER LAST 12 HOURS WEST AT NEAR 24 KM/H 15 MPH.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 24 KM/H 15 MPH.

COMMENTS:
ALLANI-DAGON ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND
LIMIT DAMAGE SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL WARNING JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN
OCEANIA... SO THIS ADVISORY IS WHOLLY UNOFFICIAL AND PROVIDED ONLY AS A
WARNING/FORECAST.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST... KM/MILES/DIR. FROM CLOSEST CITY... WINDSPEED
                                              KT/MPH/KM/H
CURRENTLY...  25 KM  15 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 85/100/155 CAT 2
IN 12 HRS... 150 KM  95 MI WEST  DALKAR CAS... 65/75/120 CAT 1
IN 24 HRS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 80/95/150 CAT 1
IN 36 HRS...  55 KM  35 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 90/105/165 CAT 2
IN 48 HRS...   INLAND VERY NEAR  INSLOW CAS... 50/60/95
IN 72 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR WILLINGBY CAS... 35/40/60

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//

AO-Three

LCLW CHCM AOTC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE WEATHER ADVISORY NR 001...CORRECTED
CHACOR MET SERVICE IN CO-ORDINATION WITH THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 AM HPT JUNE 12, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
CORRECTED TO ADD NEXT ISSUANCE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CHACOR COAST IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION... TAGGED AO-THREE... CURRENTLY POSES A THREAT
TO CHACOR. LOCAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTH-
WESTERN AREAS OF CHACOR... AS WELL AS THE FORMER DEMILITARISED ZONE/
DJACOR-RYSONIA.

AS OF 9 AM HPT JUNE 12... TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE WAS LOCATED FAR
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ÚSTIN, PEDRIANA... VERY NEAR THE COAST OF CHACOR. IT
IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 11 KM/H... 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 HPA/MBAR. 

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 80 MM... THREE INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWESTERN CHACOR... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 100 MM...
FIVE INCHES. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM CHACOR...
AND WILL LIKELY STOP IMPACTING THE COUNTRY WITHIN 48 HOURS. AS WATERS ARE
WARM... STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE... COASTAL TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES ARE BEING PUT INTO PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE CHACOR COAST.

FURTHER IN THE FORECAST... PEDRIANA, MAINLAND BEDISTAN AND THE OFF-SHORE
ISLANDS OF SARZONIA SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
CRYSTILAKERE CHANNEL.

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT JUNE 12 POSITION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CHACOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT
AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 HPA. MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT.

RESIDENTS OF PEDRIANA... MAINLAND BEDISTAN... AS WELL AS OFFSHORE SARZONIA
SHOULD CONSULT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER FORECAST INFORMATION UNTIL
THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM CHACOR AS THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE WILL
START TO ISSUE FORECASTS THEN.

THE NEXT FULL LOCAL WARNING ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE FROM THE CHACOR
WEATHER AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT LIVERPOOL
ENGLAND TIME... WITH AN INTERMEDIATE LOCAL WARNING AT 3 PM HPT.
 
ISSUED BY FORECASTER INDILBA