Difference between revisions of "Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones"

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[[/Past advisories]]
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[[/Past advisories|See also all past AO TC advisories]]
 
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  SUBTROPICAL STORM "PETROS" ADVISORY 005
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==AO-Three Charles-Lydia==
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  CHTC LEMS HPCPH
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHARLES-LYDIA ADVISORY 6... FINAL ADVISORY
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
 
  MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
  TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 8, 2145
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  TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT JUNE 14, 2145
 
  LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
 
  LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
 
   
 
   
  PETROS REMAINS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT.
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  ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED.
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MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 6 METRES.
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34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
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NORTHEAST 15 KM
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NORTHWEST 15 KM
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SOUTHEAST 25 KM
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SOUTHWEST 20 KM
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NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND.
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CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD.
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FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
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1003 HECTOPASCALS.
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PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
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SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS
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INTENSITY:
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A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE AT THE STRENGTH OF A
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    TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL STORM... 40 KNOTS 1003 HPA.
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B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... FULLY TROPICAL... 45 KNOTS 1000 HPA.
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C - PETROS WILL HAVE GAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED
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    TO BECOME COLDER.
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POSITIONING:
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A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 250 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY
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    OF BEREFORD.
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B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 800 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD.
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MOVEMENT:
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A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 42 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
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B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 23 KM/H.
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WIND RADII:
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A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
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B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 20/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW.
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COMMENTS:
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SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AND SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TAU 72...
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FOLLOWING WHICH SSTS WILL START TO DROP OFF. PETROS MIGHT HAVE MADE LANDFALL BY
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THEN... WITH FAUXHAN SEVERELY THREATENED BY ABOUT TAU 96 AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
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CYCLONE STARTS TO DRAG PETROS ALONG WITH IT.
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  THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
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  AT 9 PM HPT JUNE 14... THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE HURRICANE
  IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
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  CHARLES-LYDIA WERE LOCATED INLAND NEAR THE BORDER WHICH SEPERATES
  HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
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NORTHWIND-LINCOLNSHIRE-PEDRIANA. IT IS DISSIPATING INLAND... MOVING
  INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.
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  SOUTHWEST AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...
 +
  35 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA/MBAR.  
 
   
 
   
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.
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  THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
 +
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
 
   
 
   
  FORECAST...
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  FORECAST WINDS AND POSITION...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM  NW OF BEREFORD...  40 KNOTS
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   INITIAL... 30 KT... DISSIPATING
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 525 KM  NW OF BEREFORD...  40 KNOTS
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   12 HOURS...DISSIPATED
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD...  45 KNOTS
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IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...   50 KNOTS
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IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...   50 KNOTS
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IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 520 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...   55 KNOTS
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  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
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  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
  //FORECAST TEAM DELTA//
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PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
 +
  //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//  
  
[[Category:Atlantian Oceania]][[Category:Bazalonia]]
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[[Category:Atlantian Oceania]]

Latest revision as of 00:04, 11 October 2006

See also all past AO TC advisories


AO-Three Charles-Lydia

CHTC LEMS HPCPH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHARLES-LYDIA ADVISORY 6... FINAL ADVISORY
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT JUNE 14, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED.

AT 9 PM HPT JUNE 14... THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE HURRICANE
CHARLES-LYDIA WERE LOCATED INLAND NEAR THE BORDER WHICH SEPERATES
NORTHWIND-LINCOLNSHIRE-PEDRIANA. IT IS DISSIPATING INLAND... MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...
35 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA/MBAR. 

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

FORECAST WINDS AND POSITION...
  INITIAL... 30 KT... DISSIPATING
 12 HOURS...DISSIPATED

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//