Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones

/Past advisories

SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 005... CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 8, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PROGNOSTIC REASONING COMMENTS

PETROS REMAINS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 6 METRES.

34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
NORTHEAST 15 KM
NORTHWEST 15 KM
SOUTHEAST 25 KM
SOUTHWEST 20 KM

NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND.

CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1003 HECTOPASCALS.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS
INTENSITY:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE AT THE STRENGTH OF A
    TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL STORM... 40 KNOTS 1003 HPA.
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... FULLY TROPICAL... 45 KNOTS 1000 HPA.
C - PETROS WILL HAVE GAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED
    TO BECOME COLDER.
POSITIONING:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 250 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY
    OF BEREFORD.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 800 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD.
MOVEMENT:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 42 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 23 KM/H.
WIND RADII:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 20/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW.
COMMENTS:
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AND SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TAU 72...
FOLLOWING WHICH SSTS WILL START TO DROP OFF. PETROS MIGHT MAKE LANDFALL BEYOND
THEN... WITH FAUXHAN SEVERELY THREATENED BY ABOUT TAU 96 AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE STARTS TO DRAG PETROS ALONG WITH IT.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM  NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 525 KM  NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD...   45 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 520 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...    55 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM DELTA//