Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones

/Past advisories

AOTC LEMS HPCPH
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... SPECIAL ADVISORY... ADVISORY 008
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 9, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

PETROS CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICALITY... STATUS CHANGED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM...

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 3 METRES.

34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
NORTHEAST 10 KM
NORTHWEST 15 KM
SOUTHEAST 15 KM
SOUTHWEST 15 KM

CURRENT INTENSITY... 35 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 2250 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON
THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WILL BE MADE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ENTIRE VICTORLAND COAST ARE BEING UPGRADED AT THIS
TIME TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1007 HECTOPASCALS.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS
INTENSITY:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 35 KT 1007 HPA
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... DISSIPATING
C - CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO AS WARM AS -40 DEG C. EXTRATROPICAL
    CYCLONE TAKING A TOLL ON PETROS.
POSITIONING:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 2250 KM EAST OF THE
    CITY OF FAUXHAN.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... INLAND NEAR FAUXHAN.
C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24... IF NOT EARLIER.
D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND
    COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN WARNING AREA WITHIN
    24 HOURS.
MOVEMENT:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 105 - 110 KM/H.
C - PETROS ALMOST EATEN UP BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... BUT A SMALL
    TROPICAL PORTION OF PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED.
WIND RADII:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS.

COMMENTS:
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL... WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL
JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN
CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY
OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 2250 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    35 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 1200 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    35 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... INLAND 100 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    30 KNOTS...DISSIPATING
IN 36 HRS... DISSIPATED

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//