Difference between revisions of "Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones/Past advisories"

Revision as of 03:50, 15 August 2006

Advisory 1

SPECIAL ADVISORY
UN-NAMED SYSTEM ADVISORY 001...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
CORRECTED FOR FORECAST PARAGRAPH

OVERLAND SYSTEM NOTED OVER GEISENFRIED. CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST... AND EXPECTED
TO EMERGE INTO OPEN WATER BY 12 HRS. CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 KNOTS. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MORE GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE REPORTED BY A BAZALONIAN NAVY VESSEL TO
BE NEAR 33 DEG C... PERFECT FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING... DESPITE THE RELATIVE SOUTH-
NESS OF THE CENTRE OF THE STORM, IN A SUBTROPICAL RATHER THAN A TROPICAL REGION FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN
NECESSARY. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... AS THERE IS NO SET NAMING SCHEME FOR
ATLANTIAN OCEANIA... THIS STORM WILL EITHER GO UNNAMED... BE NAMED BY THE BAZALONIAN
GOVERNMENT... OR BE NAMED AMY FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMING
LIST IF REQUESTED BY THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... OVER GEISENFRIED...              25 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... OVER WATER...                    35 KNOTS... TROPICAL STORM
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD...   45 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   55 KNOTS
IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN...    65 KNOTS... CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN...     65 KNOTS
  FURTHER...               FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//

Advisory 2

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 002...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 6 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
CORRECTED CURRENT SYSTEM INTENSITY.

SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY OVER GEISENFRIED HAS NOW EMERGED INTO WATER AND STRENGTHENED. IT
IS STILL NOT FULLY WARM-CORE... BUT HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CALLED
A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT HAS NAMED THIS STORM SYSTEM "PETROS".
CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. PETROS IS EXPECTED TO
START TO TURN TO THE WEST WHILE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 26 KM/H... THIS STORM WILL
START TO SPEED UP TO NEAR 70 KM/H IN FORWARD SPEED... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY
SOON BE NEEDED.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION PETROS IS EXPECTED TO THEN THREATEN BEREFORD AND FAUXHAN, BAZALONIA.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1004 HECTOPASCALS.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... OVER WATER...                    30 KNOTS
IN  9 HRS... OVER WATER...                    35 KNOTS
IN 21 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 33 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   50 KNOTS
IN 45 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN...    60 KNOTS
IN 69 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN...     65 KNOTS
  FURTHER...               FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//

Advisory 3

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 7, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

PETROS REMAINS OVER WATER AND REMAINS AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH... SYSTEM MOVING
WESTWARDS VERY SLOWLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KNOTS... GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING NOR THREATENING LAND.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1004 HECTOPASCALS.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... OVER WATER...                    30 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD...   35 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   35 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 500 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN...    45 KNOTS
  FURTHER...               FORECAST PEAK AT...50 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//