Difference between revisions of "Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones/Past advisories"

Revision as of 12:58, 27 August 2006

Advisory 1

SPECIAL ADVISORY
UN-NAMED SYSTEM ADVISORY 001...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
CORRECTED FOR FORECAST PARAGRAPH

OVERLAND SYSTEM NOTED OVER GEISENFRIED. CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST... AND EXPECTED
TO EMERGE INTO OPEN WATER BY 12 HRS. CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 KNOTS. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MORE GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE REPORTED BY A BAZALONIAN NAVY VESSEL TO
BE NEAR 33 DEG C... PERFECT FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING... DESPITE THE RELATIVE SOUTH-
NESS OF THE CENTRE OF THE STORM, IN A SUBTROPICAL RATHER THAN A TROPICAL REGION FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN
NECESSARY. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... AS THERE IS NO SET NAMING SCHEME FOR
ATLANTIAN OCEANIA... THIS STORM WILL EITHER GO UNNAMED... BE NAMED BY THE BAZALONIAN
GOVERNMENT... OR BE NAMED AMY FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMING
LIST IF REQUESTED BY THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... OVER GEISENFRIED...              25 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... OVER WATER...                    35 KNOTS... TROPICAL STORM
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD...   45 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   55 KNOTS
IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN...    65 KNOTS... CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN...     65 KNOTS
  FURTHER...               FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//

Advisory 2

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 002...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 6 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
CORRECTED CURRENT SYSTEM INTENSITY.

SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY OVER GEISENFRIED HAS NOW EMERGED INTO WATER AND STRENGTHENED. IT
IS STILL NOT FULLY WARM-CORE... BUT HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CALLED
A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT HAS NAMED THIS STORM SYSTEM "PETROS".
CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. PETROS IS EXPECTED TO
START TO TURN TO THE WEST WHILE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 26 KM/H... THIS STORM WILL
START TO SPEED UP TO NEAR 70 KM/H IN FORWARD SPEED... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY
SOON BE NEEDED.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION PETROS IS EXPECTED TO THEN THREATEN BEREFORD AND FAUXHAN, BAZALONIA.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1004 HECTOPASCALS.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... OVER WATER...                    30 KNOTS
IN  9 HRS... OVER WATER...                    35 KNOTS
IN 21 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 33 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   50 KNOTS
IN 45 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN...    60 KNOTS
IN 69 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN...     65 KNOTS
  FURTHER...               FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//

Advisory 3

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 7, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

PETROS REMAINS OVER WATER AND REMAINS AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH... SYSTEM MOVING
WESTWARDS VERY SLOWLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KNOTS... GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING NOR THREATENING LAND.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1004 HECTOPASCALS.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... OVER WATER...                    30 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD...   35 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   35 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 500 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN...    45 KNOTS
  FURTHER...               FORECAST PEAK AT...50 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//

Advisory 4

SUBTROPICAL STORM "PETROS" ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 7, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

PETROS HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY... STILL SUBTROPICAL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KNOTS... GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING NOR THREATENING LAND.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... 34 KNOTS... CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 20 KM FROM THE
CENTRE. CENTRE OF SYSTEM IS EXTRAPOLATED TO BE ABOUT 250 KM NORTHEAST OF BEREFORD.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1004 HECTOPASCALS.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD...   35 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   35 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 500 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN...    45 KNOTS
  FURTHER...               FORECAST PEAK AT...50 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//

Advisory 5

SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 005... CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 8, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PROGNOSTIC REASONING COMMENTS

PETROS REMAINS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 6 METRES.

34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
NORTHEAST 15 KM
NORTHWEST 15 KM
SOUTHEAST 25 KM
SOUTHWEST 20 KM

NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND.

CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1003 HECTOPASCALS.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS
INTENSITY:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE AT THE STRENGTH OF A
    TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL STORM... 40 KNOTS 1003 HPA.
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... FULLY TROPICAL... 45 KNOTS 1000 HPA.
C - PETROS WILL HAVE GAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED
    TO BECOME COLDER.
POSITIONING:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 250 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY
    OF BEREFORD.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 800 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD.
MOVEMENT:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 42 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 23 KM/H.
WIND RADII:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 20/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW.
COMMENTS:
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AND SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TAU 72...
FOLLOWING WHICH SSTS WILL START TO DROP OFF. PETROS MIGHT MAKE LANDFALL BEYOND
THEN... WITH FAUXHAN SEVERELY THREATENED BY ABOUT TAU 96 AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE STARTS TO DRAG PETROS ALONG WITH IT.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM  NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 525 KM  NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD...   45 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 520 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...    55 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM DELTA//

Advisory 6

TROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 006
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 8, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

PETROS FULLY TROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 7 METRES.

34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
NORTHEAST 20 KM
NORTHWEST 15 KM
SOUTHEAST 30 KM
SOUTHWEST 25 KM

NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND.

CURRENTLY ABOUT 520 KM NW OF BEREFORD.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1002 HECTOPASCALS.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS
INTENSITY:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 40 KT 1002 HPA
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 50 KNOTS 997 HPA.
C - COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NEAR -73 CELSIUS. PETROS IS STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY.
POSITIONING:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 520 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY
    OF BEREFORD.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 2150 KM EAST OF CITY OF FAUXHAN.
MOVEMENT:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 23 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 25 KM/H.
C - STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD UP.
WIND RADII:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 25/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW...
                                        50 KT... 05/05/10/05 KM NE/NW/SE/SW.
COMMENTS:
TROPICAL STORM PETROS HAS GAINED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO BUILD UP... AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF PETROS WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO PETROS SPEEDING UP SOON. BY TAU 72... PETROS
IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN FAUXHAN... PERHAPS AS A HURRICANE.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 525 KM  NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD...   45 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1295 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    55 KNOTS
IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 720 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...    60 KNOTS
IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 145 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...    65 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//