Difference between revisions of "Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones/Past advisories"

Revision as of 00:56, 8 September 2006

Tropical Storm Petros (Bazalonia)

Advisory 1

SPECIAL ADVISORY
UN-NAMED SYSTEM ADVISORY 001...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
CORRECTED FOR FORECAST PARAGRAPH

OVERLAND SYSTEM NOTED OVER GEISENFRIED. CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST... AND EXPECTED
TO EMERGE INTO OPEN WATER BY 12 HRS. CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 KNOTS. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MORE GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE REPORTED BY A BAZALONIAN NAVY VESSEL TO
BE NEAR 33 DEG C... PERFECT FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING... DESPITE THE RELATIVE SOUTH-
NESS OF THE CENTRE OF THE STORM, IN A SUBTROPICAL RATHER THAN A TROPICAL REGION FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN
NECESSARY. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... AS THERE IS NO SET NAMING SCHEME FOR
ATLANTIAN OCEANIA... THIS STORM WILL EITHER GO UNNAMED... BE NAMED BY THE BAZALONIAN
GOVERNMENT... OR BE NAMED AMY FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMING
LIST IF REQUESTED BY THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... OVER GEISENFRIED...              25 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... OVER WATER...                    35 KNOTS... TROPICAL STORM
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD...   45 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   55 KNOTS
IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN...    65 KNOTS... CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN...     65 KNOTS
  FURTHER...               FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//

Advisory 2

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 002...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 6 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
CORRECTED CURRENT SYSTEM INTENSITY.

SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY OVER GEISENFRIED HAS NOW EMERGED INTO WATER AND STRENGTHENED. IT
IS STILL NOT FULLY WARM-CORE... BUT HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CALLED
A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT HAS NAMED THIS STORM SYSTEM "PETROS".
CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. PETROS IS EXPECTED TO
START TO TURN TO THE WEST WHILE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 26 KM/H... THIS STORM WILL
START TO SPEED UP TO NEAR 70 KM/H IN FORWARD SPEED... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY
SOON BE NEEDED.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION PETROS IS EXPECTED TO THEN THREATEN BEREFORD AND FAUXHAN, BAZALONIA.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1004 HECTOPASCALS.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... OVER WATER...                    30 KNOTS
IN  9 HRS... OVER WATER...                    35 KNOTS
IN 21 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 33 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   50 KNOTS
IN 45 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN...    60 KNOTS
IN 69 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN...     65 KNOTS
  FURTHER...               FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//

Advisory 3

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 7, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

PETROS REMAINS OVER WATER AND REMAINS AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH... SYSTEM MOVING
WESTWARDS VERY SLOWLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KNOTS... GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING NOR THREATENING LAND.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1004 HECTOPASCALS.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... OVER WATER...                    30 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD...   35 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   35 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 500 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN...    45 KNOTS
  FURTHER...               FORECAST PEAK AT...50 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//

Advisory 4

SUBTROPICAL STORM "PETROS" ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 7, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

PETROS HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY... STILL SUBTROPICAL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KNOTS... GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING NOR THREATENING LAND.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... 34 KNOTS... CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 20 KM FROM THE
CENTRE. CENTRE OF SYSTEM IS EXTRAPOLATED TO BE ABOUT 250 KM NORTHEAST OF BEREFORD.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1004 HECTOPASCALS.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD...   35 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   35 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 500 KM NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN...    45 KNOTS
  FURTHER...               FORECAST PEAK AT...50 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//

Advisory 5

SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 005... CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 8, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PROGNOSTIC REASONING COMMENTS

PETROS REMAINS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 6 METRES.

34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
NORTHEAST 15 KM
NORTHWEST 15 KM
SOUTHEAST 25 KM
SOUTHWEST 20 KM

NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND.

CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1003 HECTOPASCALS.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS
INTENSITY:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE AT THE STRENGTH OF A
    TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL STORM... 40 KNOTS 1003 HPA.
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... FULLY TROPICAL... 45 KNOTS 1000 HPA.
C - PETROS WILL HAVE GAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED
    TO BECOME COLDER.
POSITIONING:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 250 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY
    OF BEREFORD.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 800 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD.
MOVEMENT:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 42 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 23 KM/H.
WIND RADII:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 20/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW.
COMMENTS:
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AND SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TAU 72...
FOLLOWING WHICH SSTS WILL START TO DROP OFF. PETROS MIGHT MAKE LANDFALL BEYOND
THEN... WITH FAUXHAN SEVERELY THREATENED BY ABOUT TAU 96 AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE STARTS TO DRAG PETROS ALONG WITH IT.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM  NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 525 KM  NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD...   45 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 520 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...    55 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM DELTA//

Advisory 6

TROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 006
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 8, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

PETROS FULLY TROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 7 METRES.

34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
NORTHEAST 20 KM
NORTHWEST 15 KM
SOUTHEAST 30 KM
SOUTHWEST 25 KM

NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND.

CURRENTLY ABOUT 520 KM NW OF BEREFORD.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1002 HECTOPASCALS.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS
INTENSITY:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 40 KT 1002 HPA
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 50 KNOTS 997 HPA.
C - COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NEAR -73 CELSIUS. PETROS IS STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY.
POSITIONING:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 520 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY
    OF BEREFORD.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 2150 KM EAST OF CITY OF FAUXHAN.
MOVEMENT:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 23 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 25 KM/H.
C - STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD UP.
WIND RADII:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 25/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW...
                                        50 KT... 05/05/10/05 KM NE/NW/SE/SW.
COMMENTS:
TROPICAL STORM PETROS HAS GAINED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO BUILD UP... AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF PETROS WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO PETROS SPEEDING UP SOON. BY TAU 72... PETROS
IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN FAUXHAN... PERHAPS AS A HURRICANE.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION
IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT
HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 525 KM  NW OF BEREFORD...   40 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD...   45 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    50 KNOTS
IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1295 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    55 KNOTS
IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 720 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...    60 KNOTS
IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 145 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...    65 KNOTS

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//

Special Advisory 7

TROPICAL STORM PETROS... SPECIAL ADVISORY... ADVISORY 007
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT MARCH 8, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...
PETROS SEEMS TO BE SHEARED APART BY THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
IT... FOR SOME REASON... IS LOSING TROPICALITY.

THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD START TO ABSORB PETROS... DRAGGING IT TO THE
WEST ALONG WITH IT... IF IT HASN'T ALREADY.

PETROS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED FROM THE SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED SEPERATE.

PETROS/EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING WEST AT 55 MPH... 90 KM/H... AND
THE SYSTEM MAY SPEED UP FURTHER AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE FAR SOUTH CLOSES IN.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 4 METRES.

34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
NORTHEAST 10 KM
NORTHWEST 15 KM
SOUTHEAST 15 KM
SOUTHWEST 15 KM

CURRENT INTENSITY... 40 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 3500 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON
THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL COULD BE MADE WITHIN TWO DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING PUT INTO PLACE FOR THE WHOLE NORTHERN COAST
OF VICTORLAND.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1005 HECTOPASCALS.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
TROPICAL STORM PETROS
INTENSITY:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 40 KT 1005 HPA
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 40 KNOTS 1007 HPA.
C - CLOUD TOPS WARMING. PETROS BEING SUCKED INTO LARGER FRONT... BUT WILL
    REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED TO BE CONSIDERED SEPERATE SYSTEM.
D - RMKS: RAPIDLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL.
POSITIONING:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 3500 KM EAST OF THE
    CITY OF FAUXHAN.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 1220 KM EAST OF THE CITY OF FAUXHAN.
C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48... IF NOT EARLIER.
D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND
    COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
MOVEMENT:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 90 - 95 KM/H.
C - STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD UP. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
    WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM'S MOVEMENT.
WIND RADII:
A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 10/15/15/20 KM NE/NW/SE/SW.

COMMENTS:
TROPICAL STORM PETROS SEEMS TO BE RAPIDLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL ON RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REASON IS UNCLEAR... ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS THAT THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF PETROS HAS PARTIALLY ABSORBED THE
TROPICAL STORM... ALTHOUGH PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED TO BE
CONSIDERED A SEPERATE CYCLONE. AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
PETROS WILL START TO MOVE EVEN FASTER... WHILE THE ATLANTIAN OCEANIA
WEATHER PICTURE DOES NOT PROVIDE GOOD REASONING. AS SUCH... GREATLY
EXTRAPOLATED TRACK HAS PETROS MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 36 TO TAU 48.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL
JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN
CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY
OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 3500 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    40 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 2420 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    40 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 1220 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    40 KNOTS
IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 150 KM   E OF FAUXHAN...    30 KNOTS... LANDFALL MADE
IN 48 HRS... DISSIPATED

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//

Special Advisory 8

AOTC LEMS HPCPH
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... SPECIAL ADVISORY... ADVISORY 008...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 9, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.
CORRECTED FOR SUBTROPICAL MENTION IN PROG-REASON.

PETROS CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICALITY... STATUS CHANGED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM...

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 3 METRES.

34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
NORTHEAST 10 KM
NORTHWEST 15 KM
SOUTHEAST 15 KM
SOUTHWEST 15 KM

CURRENT INTENSITY... 35 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 2250 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON
THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WILL BE MADE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ENTIRE VICTORLAND COAST ARE BEING UPGRADED AT THIS
TIME TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1007 HECTOPASCALS.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS
INTENSITY:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 35 KT 1007 HPA
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... DISSIPATING
C - CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO AS WARM AS -40 DEG C. EXTRATROPICAL
    CYCLONE TAKING A TOLL ON PETROS.
POSITIONING:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 2250 KM EAST OF THE
    CITY OF FAUXHAN.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... INLAND NEAR FAUXHAN.
C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24... IF NOT EARLIER.
D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND
    COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN WARNING AREA WITHIN
    24 HOURS.
MOVEMENT:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 105 - 110 KM/H.
C - PETROS ALMOST EATEN UP BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... BUT A SMALL
    TROPICAL PORTION OF PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED.
WIND RADII:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS.

COMMENTS:
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL... WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL
JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN
CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY
OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 2250 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    35 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 1200 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    35 KNOTS
IN 24 HRS... INLAND 100 KM  E OF FAUXHAN...    30 KNOTS...DISSIPATING
IN 36 HRS... DISSIPATED

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//

Advisory 9

AOTC LEMS HPCPH
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... ADVISORY 009
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 9, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

PETROS CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICALITY... 

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 3 METRES.

34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
NORTHEAST 10 KM
NORTHWEST 15 KM
SOUTHEAST 15 KM
SOUTHWEST 15 KM

CURRENT INTENSITY... 35 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 1150 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON
THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WILL BE MADE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE VICTORLAND COAST.

FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT
1007 HECTOPASCALS.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS
INTENSITY:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 35 KT 1007 HPA
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... DISSIPATED
C - CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO AS WARM AS -35 DEG C. EXTRATROPICAL
    CYCLONE TAKING A TOLL ON PETROS.
POSITIONING:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 1150 KM EAST OF THE
    CITY OF FAUXHAN.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... INLAND WEST OF FAUXHAN.
C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 12... IF NOT EARLIER.
D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND
    COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN WARNING AREA WITHIN
    24 HOURS.
MOVEMENT:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS.
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 100 KM/H.
C - PETROS ALMOST EATEN UP BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... BUT A SMALL
    TROPICAL PORTION OF PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED.
WIND RADII:
A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS.

COMMENTS:
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL... WITHIN 12 HOURS.

TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL
JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN
CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY
OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST...
CURRENTLY... ABOUT 1150 KM  E OF  FAUXHAN...    35 KNOTS
IN 12 HRS... NEAR OR OVER CITY OF FAUXHAN...    30 KNOTS...DISSIPATING
IN 24 HRS... DISSIPATED

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//

Advisory 10

AOTC LEMS HPCPH
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... FINAL ADVISORY 010
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 10, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

PETROS MAKES LANDFALL.

CURRENTLY CENTRED OVER FUAXHAN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 65 KM/H.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ENTIRE VICTORLAND COAST DISCONTINUED.

REMARKS:
SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEROGOLOGICAL
SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OFFICE IN PORT HARVEY, CHACOR.

CONTINUED GUSTS OF UP TO 90 KM/H WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SIX
HOURS. LISTEN FOR INFORMATION FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES ON WHEN IT IS
SAFE TO COME OUT TO INSPECT DAMAGE. REMAIN IN SHELTER.

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//

Tropical Depression AO-Two

Advisory 1

AOTC LEMS HPCPH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-TWO ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 10 PM HPT JUNE 10, 2145
LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER.

CASARAN AUTHORITIES ALONG WITH STARBLAYDI AUTHORITIES HAVE REQUESTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HPC TO WARN ON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-TWO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF QUTAR...
800 KM EAST OF CARLTON, CASARI, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS
AND POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN. CHACORAN GOVERNMENT WILL FLY OUT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 2 METRES.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING//
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-TWO
INTENSITY:
A - TD-AO2 CURRENT INTENSITY +25 KT 30 MPH 50 KM/H+ 1007 HPA MBAR
B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... +35 KT 40 MPH 65 KM/H+ 1004 HPA MBAR
C - REMARKS... THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO MAJOR ERRORS IF
    HURRICANE HUNTER RECON AIRCRAFT DETERMINES CENTRE AND DIFFERENT WIND
    SPEEDS THAN CURRENTLY REPORTED.
POSITIONING:
A - TD-AO2 CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 800 KM 500 MILES EAST OF CARLTON CASARI.
B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 630 KM 395 MI EAST OF CARLTON CASARI.
C - REMARKS... THE POSITION FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO MAJOR ERRORS IF
    HURRICANE HUNTER RECON AIRCRAFT DETERMINES A DIFFERENT STORM CENTRE
    THAN CURRENTLY REPORTED.
MOVEMENT:
A - TD-AO2 MOVEMENT OVER LAST 12 HOURS ALMOST STATIONARY
B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 8 KM/H 5 MPH.
WIND RADII:
A - TD-AO2 CURRENTLY HAS NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KT.
B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 10/5/10/10 KM IN NE/NW/SE/SW QUADRANTS
C - REMARKS... WIND RADII FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO MAJOR ERRORS IF HURRICANE
    HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES DIFFERENT STORM CENTRE AND WINDSPEED THAN
    CURRENTLY REPORTED.

COMMENTS:
AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL IN THE LONG-TERM ON BOTH ISLANDS
OF CASARI AS A HURRICANE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER RECON FLIGHT WILL DETERMINE
A LOT ABOUT THIS STORM. FOR NOW... THE FORECAST PROVIDED BELOW IS SUBJECT TO
LARGE ERRORS IF THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS NEW INFORMATION. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED
THAT LONG-RANGE FORECASTS BEYOND 48 HOURS ARE STILL SUBJECT TO ERRORS OF UP
TO 320 KM IN TRACK AND 35 KT IN INTENSITY.

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL WARNING JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN
OCEANIA... SO THIS ADVISORY IS WHOLLY UNOFFICIAL AND PROVIDED ONLY AS A
WARNING/FORECAST.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME.

FORECAST... KM/MILES/DIR. FROM CLOSEST CITY... WINDSPEED
                                              KT/MPH/KM/H
CURRENTLY... 800 KM 500 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 25/30/50
IN 12 HRS... 705 KM 440 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 30/35/55
IN 24 HRS... 630 KM 395 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 35/40/65
IN 36 HRS... 550 KM 345 MI NE   ELKARA CAS...  40/45/75
IN 48 HRS... 405 KM 255 MI ENE  ELKARA CAS...  45/50/85
IN 60 HRS... 260 KM 165 MI ENE  ELKARA CAS...  55/65/100
IN 72 HRS... 120 KM  75 MI ENE  ELKARA CAS...  65/75/120 CAT 1
IN 96 HRS... 100 KM  60 MI EAST SWORDIA CAS... 60/70/110 INLAND

LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR
//FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//