Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones/Past advisories
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< Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones
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Advisory 1
SPECIAL ADVISORY UN-NAMED SYSTEM ADVISORY 001...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED FOR FORECAST PARAGRAPH OVERLAND SYSTEM NOTED OVER GEISENFRIED. CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST... AND EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO OPEN WATER BY 12 HRS. CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE REPORTED BY A BAZALONIAN NAVY VESSEL TO BE NEAR 33 DEG C... PERFECT FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING... DESPITE THE RELATIVE SOUTH- NESS OF THE CENTRE OF THE STORM, IN A SUBTROPICAL RATHER THAN A TROPICAL REGION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN NECESSARY. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... AS THERE IS NO SET NAMING SCHEME FOR ATLANTIAN OCEANIA... THIS STORM WILL EITHER GO UNNAMED... BE NAMED BY THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT... OR BE NAMED AMY FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMING LIST IF REQUESTED BY THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... OVER GEISENFRIED... 25 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... OVER WATER... 35 KNOTS... TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 45 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 55 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS... CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Advisory 2
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 002...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 6 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED CURRENT SYSTEM INTENSITY. SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY OVER GEISENFRIED HAS NOW EMERGED INTO WATER AND STRENGTHENED. IT IS STILL NOT FULLY WARM-CORE... BUT HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CALLED A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT HAS NAMED THIS STORM SYSTEM "PETROS". CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. PETROS IS EXPECTED TO START TO TURN TO THE WEST WHILE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 26 KM/H... THIS STORM WILL START TO SPEED UP TO NEAR 70 KM/H IN FORWARD SPEED... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY SOON BE NEEDED. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION PETROS IS EXPECTED TO THEN THREATEN BEREFORD AND FAUXHAN, BAZALONIA. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HECTOPASCALS. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... OVER WATER... 30 KNOTS IN 9 HRS... OVER WATER... 35 KNOTS IN 21 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 33 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 50 KNOTS IN 45 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 60 KNOTS IN 69 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Advisory 3
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 7, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS REMAINS OVER WATER AND REMAINS AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH... SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARDS VERY SLOWLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KNOTS... GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING NOR THREATENING LAND. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HECTOPASCALS. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... OVER WATER... 30 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 500 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 45 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...50 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//
Advisory 4
SUBTROPICAL STORM "PETROS" ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 7, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY... STILL SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KNOTS... GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING NOR THREATENING LAND. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... 34 KNOTS... CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 20 KM FROM THE CENTRE. CENTRE OF SYSTEM IS EXTRAPOLATED TO BE ABOUT 250 KM NORTHEAST OF BEREFORD. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HECTOPASCALS. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 500 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 45 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...50 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//
Advisory 5
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 005... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 8, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PROGNOSTIC REASONING COMMENTS PETROS REMAINS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 6 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 15 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 25 KM SOUTHWEST 20 KM NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND. CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE AT THE STRENGTH OF A TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL STORM... 40 KNOTS 1003 HPA. B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... FULLY TROPICAL... 45 KNOTS 1000 HPA. C - PETROS WILL HAVE GAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED TO BECOME COLDER. POSITIONING: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 250 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 800 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD. MOVEMENT: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 42 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 23 KM/H. WIND RADII: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 20/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW. COMMENTS: SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AND SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TAU 72... FOLLOWING WHICH SSTS WILL START TO DROP OFF. PETROS MIGHT MAKE LANDFALL BEYOND THEN... WITH FAUXHAN SEVERELY THREATENED BY ABOUT TAU 96 AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE STARTS TO DRAG PETROS ALONG WITH IT. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 525 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD... 45 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 520 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 55 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM DELTA//