Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones/Past advisories
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< Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones
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Advisory 1
SPECIAL ADVISORY UN-NAMED SYSTEM ADVISORY 001...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED FOR FORECAST PARAGRAPH OVERLAND SYSTEM NOTED OVER GEISENFRIED. CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST... AND EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO OPEN WATER BY 12 HRS. CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE REPORTED BY A BAZALONIAN NAVY VESSEL TO BE NEAR 33 DEG C... PERFECT FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING... DESPITE THE RELATIVE SOUTH- NESS OF THE CENTRE OF THE STORM, IN A SUBTROPICAL RATHER THAN A TROPICAL REGION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN NECESSARY. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... AS THERE IS NO SET NAMING SCHEME FOR ATLANTIAN OCEANIA... THIS STORM WILL EITHER GO UNNAMED... BE NAMED BY THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT... OR BE NAMED AMY FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMING LIST IF REQUESTED BY THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... OVER GEISENFRIED... 25 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... OVER WATER... 35 KNOTS... TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 45 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 55 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS... CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Advisory 2
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 002...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 6 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED CURRENT SYSTEM INTENSITY. SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY OVER GEISENFRIED HAS NOW EMERGED INTO WATER AND STRENGTHENED. IT IS STILL NOT FULLY WARM-CORE... BUT HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CALLED A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT HAS NAMED THIS STORM SYSTEM "PETROS". CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. PETROS IS EXPECTED TO START TO TURN TO THE WEST WHILE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 26 KM/H... THIS STORM WILL START TO SPEED UP TO NEAR 70 KM/H IN FORWARD SPEED... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY SOON BE NEEDED. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION PETROS IS EXPECTED TO THEN THREATEN BEREFORD AND FAUXHAN, BAZALONIA. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HECTOPASCALS. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... OVER WATER... 30 KNOTS IN 9 HRS... OVER WATER... 35 KNOTS IN 21 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 33 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 50 KNOTS IN 45 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 60 KNOTS IN 69 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Advisory 3
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 7, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS REMAINS OVER WATER AND REMAINS AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH... SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARDS VERY SLOWLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KNOTS... GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING NOR THREATENING LAND. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HECTOPASCALS. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... OVER WATER... 30 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 500 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 45 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...50 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//
Advisory 4
SUBTROPICAL STORM "PETROS" ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 7, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY... STILL SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KNOTS... GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING NOR THREATENING LAND. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... 34 KNOTS... CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 20 KM FROM THE CENTRE. CENTRE OF SYSTEM IS EXTRAPOLATED TO BE ABOUT 250 KM NORTHEAST OF BEREFORD. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HECTOPASCALS. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 500 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 45 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...50 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//
Advisory 5
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 005... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 8, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PROGNOSTIC REASONING COMMENTS PETROS REMAINS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 6 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 15 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 25 KM SOUTHWEST 20 KM NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND. CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE AT THE STRENGTH OF A TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL STORM... 40 KNOTS 1003 HPA. B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... FULLY TROPICAL... 45 KNOTS 1000 HPA. C - PETROS WILL HAVE GAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED TO BECOME COLDER. POSITIONING: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 250 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 800 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD. MOVEMENT: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 42 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 23 KM/H. WIND RADII: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 20/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW. COMMENTS: SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AND SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TAU 72... FOLLOWING WHICH SSTS WILL START TO DROP OFF. PETROS MIGHT MAKE LANDFALL BEYOND THEN... WITH FAUXHAN SEVERELY THREATENED BY ABOUT TAU 96 AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE STARTS TO DRAG PETROS ALONG WITH IT. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 525 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD... 45 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 520 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 55 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM DELTA//
Advisory 6
TROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 006 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 8, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS FULLY TROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 7 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 20 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 30 KM SOUTHWEST 25 KM NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND. CURRENTLY ABOUT 520 KM NW OF BEREFORD. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 40 KT 1002 HPA B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 50 KNOTS 997 HPA. C - COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NEAR -73 CELSIUS. PETROS IS STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY. POSITIONING: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 520 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 2150 KM EAST OF CITY OF FAUXHAN. MOVEMENT: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 23 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 25 KM/H. C - STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD UP. WIND RADII: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 25/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW... 50 KT... 05/05/10/05 KM NE/NW/SE/SW. COMMENTS: TROPICAL STORM PETROS HAS GAINED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD UP... AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PETROS WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO PETROS SPEEDING UP SOON. BY TAU 72... PETROS IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN FAUXHAN... PERHAPS AS A HURRICANE. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 525 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD... 45 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1295 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 55 KNOTS IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 720 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 60 KNOTS IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 145 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Special Advisory 7
TROPICAL STORM PETROS... SPECIAL ADVISORY... ADVISORY 007 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT MARCH 8, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY... PETROS SEEMS TO BE SHEARED APART BY THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IT... FOR SOME REASON... IS LOSING TROPICALITY. THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD START TO ABSORB PETROS... DRAGGING IT TO THE WEST ALONG WITH IT... IF IT HASN'T ALREADY. PETROS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED FROM THE SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED SEPERATE. PETROS/EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING WEST AT 55 MPH... 90 KM/H... AND THE SYSTEM MAY SPEED UP FURTHER AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE FAR SOUTH CLOSES IN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 4 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 10 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 15 KM SOUTHWEST 15 KM CURRENT INTENSITY... 40 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 3500 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL COULD BE MADE WITHIN TWO DAYS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING PUT INTO PLACE FOR THE WHOLE NORTHERN COAST OF VICTORLAND. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// TROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 40 KT 1005 HPA B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 40 KNOTS 1007 HPA. C - CLOUD TOPS WARMING. PETROS BEING SUCKED INTO LARGER FRONT... BUT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED TO BE CONSIDERED SEPERATE SYSTEM. D - RMKS: RAPIDLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL. POSITIONING: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 3500 KM EAST OF THE CITY OF FAUXHAN. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 1220 KM EAST OF THE CITY OF FAUXHAN. C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48... IF NOT EARLIER. D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MOVEMENT: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 90 - 95 KM/H. C - STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD UP. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM'S MOVEMENT. WIND RADII: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 10/15/15/20 KM NE/NW/SE/SW. COMMENTS: TROPICAL STORM PETROS SEEMS TO BE RAPIDLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REASON IS UNCLEAR... ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS THAT THE EXTRA- TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF PETROS HAS PARTIALLY ABSORBED THE TROPICAL STORM... ALTHOUGH PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED TO BE CONSIDERED A SEPERATE CYCLONE. AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PETROS WILL START TO MOVE EVEN FASTER... WHILE THE ATLANTIAN OCEANIA WEATHER PICTURE DOES NOT PROVIDE GOOD REASONING. AS SUCH... GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED TRACK HAS PETROS MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 36 TO TAU 48. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 3500 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 40 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 2420 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 40 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 1220 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 40 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 30 KNOTS... LANDFALL MADE IN 48 HRS... DISSIPATED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Special Advisory 8
AOTC LEMS HPCPH SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... SPECIAL ADVISORY... ADVISORY 008...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 9, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED FOR SUBTROPICAL MENTION IN PROG-REASON. PETROS CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICALITY... STATUS CHANGED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM... MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 3 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 10 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 15 KM SOUTHWEST 15 KM CURRENT INTENSITY... 35 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 2250 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WILL BE MADE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ENTIRE VICTORLAND COAST ARE BEING UPGRADED AT THIS TIME TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 35 KT 1007 HPA B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... DISSIPATING C - CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO AS WARM AS -40 DEG C. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TAKING A TOLL ON PETROS. POSITIONING: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 2250 KM EAST OF THE CITY OF FAUXHAN. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... INLAND NEAR FAUXHAN. C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24... IF NOT EARLIER. D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. MOVEMENT: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 105 - 110 KM/H. C - PETROS ALMOST EATEN UP BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... BUT A SMALL TROPICAL PORTION OF PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED. WIND RADII: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS. COMMENTS: SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL... WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 2250 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 35 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 1200 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 35 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... INLAND 100 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 30 KNOTS...DISSIPATING IN 36 HRS... DISSIPATED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//
Advisory 9
AOTC LEMS HPCPH SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... ADVISORY 009 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 9, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICALITY... MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 3 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 10 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 15 KM SOUTHWEST 15 KM CURRENT INTENSITY... 35 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 1150 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WILL BE MADE WITHIN 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE VICTORLAND COAST. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 35 KT 1007 HPA B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... DISSIPATED C - CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO AS WARM AS -35 DEG C. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TAKING A TOLL ON PETROS. POSITIONING: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 1150 KM EAST OF THE CITY OF FAUXHAN. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... INLAND WEST OF FAUXHAN. C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 12... IF NOT EARLIER. D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. MOVEMENT: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 100 KM/H. C - PETROS ALMOST EATEN UP BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... BUT A SMALL TROPICAL PORTION OF PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED. WIND RADII: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS. COMMENTS: SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL... WITHIN 12 HOURS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 1150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 35 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... NEAR OR OVER CITY OF FAUXHAN... 30 KNOTS...DISSIPATING IN 24 HRS... DISSIPATED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//
