Difference between revisions of "Liverpool England MSHPC Tropical Weather Updates"
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'''Tropical Weather Updates''' are 12-hourly outlook bulletins issued during cyclone season by the [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service]] Hurricane Prediction Centre that summarises tropical weather activity in [[The Heartland]], and gives a short-term forecast of possible development of tropical cyclones. They are sometimes issued outside-of-season, at a rate of one every 24 hours, when there is (rare) tropical activity. | '''Tropical Weather Updates''' are 12-hourly outlook bulletins issued during cyclone season by the [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service]] Hurricane Prediction Centre that summarises tropical weather activity in [[The Heartland]], and gives a short-term forecast of possible development of tropical cyclones. They are sometimes issued outside-of-season, at a rate of one every 24 hours, when there is (rare) tropical activity. | ||
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| − | TWUTH HPCOR | + | TWUTH HPCOR 281530 CCA |
| − | + | TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE... CORRECTED | |
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ||
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | ||
| Line 17: | Line 17: | ||
IN EFFECT. | IN EFFECT. | ||
| − | FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS | + | FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS |
IN THE GENERAL AREA OF 3 DEG N LATITUDE/39 DEG E LONGITUDE. SSTS ARE NEAR | IN THE GENERAL AREA OF 3 DEG N LATITUDE/39 DEG E LONGITUDE. SSTS ARE NEAR | ||
29 DEG C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE... NEAR 20 KT... BUT EXPECTED | 29 DEG C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE... NEAR 20 KT... BUT EXPECTED | ||
| Line 23: | Line 23: | ||
CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON NORTH AND EAST OF SYSTEM... BUT | CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON NORTH AND EAST OF SYSTEM... BUT | ||
LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO SW OF CONVECTION. POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE | LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO SW OF CONVECTION. POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE | ||
| − | FORMATION IN NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. | + | FORMATION IN NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS FORMATION ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED |
| + | TO WARNING... RENEWED... OR CANCELLED BY 1500 HPT MARCH 29. | ||
NO OTHER DISTURBANCES OBSERVED. | NO OTHER DISTURBANCES OBSERVED. | ||
NEXT TWU ISSUANCE AT 1500 HPT MARCH 29... OR EARLIER IF ADVISORIES INITIATED. | NEXT TWU ISSUANCE AT 1500 HPT MARCH 29... OR EARLIER IF ADVISORIES INITIATED. | ||
| + | JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION (1): UPDATED HTCFW TO INCLUDE UPGRADING/CANCELLATION | ||
FORECASTER CALTS | FORECASTER CALTS | ||
[[Category:Liverpool England tropical cyclones]] | [[Category:Liverpool England tropical cyclones]] | ||
Revision as of 03:50, 24 March 2007
Tropical Weather Updates are 12-hourly outlook bulletins issued during cyclone season by the Liverpool England Meteorological Service Hurricane Prediction Centre that summarises tropical weather activity in The Heartland, and gives a short-term forecast of possible development of tropical cyclones. They are sometimes issued outside-of-season, at a rate of one every 24 hours, when there is (rare) tropical activity.
TWUTH HPCOR 281530 CCA TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 PM HPT BULLETIN MARCH 28 2146 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 999 HPA IS NEAR 2.8N 38.8E ALMOST STATIONARY. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... THE FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS NOT FAR OFF. POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS IS HIGH. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY EN-ROUTE TO THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 25 KT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 1.5 FROM AFLE AND HDCW... 1.0 FROM UHWF. BASED ON MSHPC'S TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WARNING GUIDELINES... THIS SYSTEM RATES 30 POINTS. THEREFORE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE GENERAL AREA OF 3 DEG N LATITUDE/39 DEG E LONGITUDE. SSTS ARE NEAR 29 DEG C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE... NEAR 20 KT... BUT EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN. EVIDENT CIRCULATION PRESENT, BUT WEAK LLCC STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON NORTH AND EAST OF SYSTEM... BUT LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO SW OF CONVECTION. POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS FORMATION ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING... RENEWED... OR CANCELLED BY 1500 HPT MARCH 29. NO OTHER DISTURBANCES OBSERVED. NEXT TWU ISSUANCE AT 1500 HPT MARCH 29... OR EARLIER IF ADVISORIES INITIATED. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION (1): UPDATED HTCFW TO INCLUDE UPGRADING/CANCELLATION FORECASTER CALTS
