Liverpool England MSHPC Tropical Weather Updates

Tropical Weather Updates are 12-hourly outlook bulletins issued during cyclone season by the Liverpool England Meteorological Service Hurricane Prediction Centre that summarises tropical weather activity in The Heartland, and gives a short-term forecast of possible development of tropical cyclones. They are sometimes issued outside-of-season, at a rate of one every 24 hours, when there is (rare) tropical activity.

TWUTH HPCOR 281500
0328/1500H TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 PM HPT BULLETIN MARCH 28 2146

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 999 HPA IS NEAR 2.8N 38.8E ALMOST STATIONARY. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... THE FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS
NOT FAR OFF. POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS IS HIGH. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY EN-ROUTE TO THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 25 KT. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 1.5 FROM AFLE AND HDCW... 1.0 FROM UHWF. BASED
ON MSHPC'S TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WARNING GUIDELINES... THIS SYSTEM
RATES 30 POINTS. THEREFORE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS
IN THE GENERAL AREA OF 3 DEG N LATITUDE/39 DEG E LONGITUDE. SSTS ARE NEAR
29 DEG C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE... NEAR 20 KT... BUT EXPECTED
TO LIGHTEN. EVIDENT CIRCULATION PRESENT, BUT WEAK LLCC STARTING TO
CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON NORTH AND EAST OF SYSTEM... BUT
LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO SW OF CONVECTION. POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

NO OTHER DISTURBANCES OBSERVED.

NEXT TWU ISSUANCE AT 1500 HPT MARCH 29... OR EARLIER IF ADVISORIES INITIATED.

FORECASTER CALTS