TD01 (2145)

Tropical Storm Veiru Public Advisory

TROPICAL STORM VEIRU (4501) ADVISORY 009
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND HEADQUARTERS
10 AM LOCAL TIME ... 2 PM HPT FEB 6 2145

TROPICAL STORM VEIRU... DEADLIEST STORM IN MSHPC HISTORY... 121 REPORTED DEATHS
... BY FAR BREAKING THE OLD RECORD... CYCLONE DONNA'S 40 FATALITIES.
VEIRU'S FORWARD SPEED HAS REMAINED AT 11 MPH... STORM WEAKENING HAS ALSO SLOWED...
HOWEVER... BY THE TIME IT RECHES PORTLAND... IN ABOUT 20 HOURS... IF IT CONTINUES
ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK... THE STORM SHOULD BE A DEPRESSION... OR SHOULD HAVE
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER... OFFICIAL FORECASTS... AS WELL AS A GOOD NUMBER OF MODELS
... TAKE THIS STORM BACK OUT TO SEA... AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... THUS RETAINING
THE NAME VEIRU... RATHER THAN DISSIPATING IT.

THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A DIRECT HIT ON PORTLAND AS A
25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION... HOWEVER, AS THERE IS A LARGE-ISH WATER SOURCE
NEAR PORTLAND... FLOODING COULD BE DEVASTATING... AND THE WATER SOURCE COULD
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA RATHER THAN
DYING OFF INLAND...

HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE COKEKILAN ARMY BASE IN
KINGKILA... AS WELL AS THE ISLAND OF THE ROYAL AIR FORCE BASE IN KINGKILA.
HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT CONDITIONS NORMALLY EXPECTED OF AND IN A HURRICANE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM LOCAL TIME... 12 PM PAX TIME OR 2 PM HEARTLAND PRUDENTIA TIME... THE
CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM VEIRU WAS LOCATED OVERLAND... 385 KM... 240 MI... E OF
PORTLAND, DASHAKE... AND MOVING AT W AT 11 MPH OR 18 KM/H.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KM/H... 50 MPH OR 45 KT... GUSTING TO 65 KT...
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 HPA... 74.10 CMHG OR 29.17 INHG.

REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION... 385 KM EAST OF PORTLAND AND MOVING WESTWARDS
AT 18 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KNOTS... 50 MPH... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA. STAY INSIDE SHELTER. HURRICANE 
WATCHES IN EFFECT. HIGH COASTAL SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT. HIGH WIND AND ROUGH
SEAS ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED AT 5 PM HPT... 1 PM LOCAL TIME.

NEW PRODUCT RELEASED BY MSHPC... IN CONJUNCTION WITH FULL ADVISORIES...
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF LOCATION AND INTENSITY UP TO 96 HOURS... AS WELL AS THE
MAXIMUM FORECAST MADE BY ANY OTHER MODEL... (FCST) MEANS THAT THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MAXIMUM SUGGESTED INTENSITY BY OTHER MODELS... OR THAT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS THE MAXIMUM SUGGESTED INTENSITY AGAINST ALL OTHER MODELS.

NOTE THAT A LANDFALL IS FORECAST ON THE ISLAND OF THE KINGKILAN RAFB... BUT
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVELLING AT NEARLY 35 KM/H... OVER 20 MPH...
AND THE TIME SPENT ON THE ISLAND IS THEREFORE NOT REFLECTED BELOW.

HRS FROM ISSUE... FORECAST LOCATION (KM)... FCST INTENSITY.... MAX MODEL INT...
12 HOURS.... 180 E OF PORTLAND, DASHAKE..... 60 KM/H - DEPR... 60 KM/H (FCST)
24 HOURS.... 200 SW OF PORTLAND, DASHAKE.... 60 KM/H - DEPR... 75 KM/H - STORM
36 HOURS.... 480 NE OF COKEKILAN ARMY BASE.. 100 KM/H - STORM. 105 KM/H - STORM
48 HOURS.... 180 N OF COKEKILAN ARMY BASE... 125 KM/H - CAT1.. 125 KM/H (FCST)
72 HOURS.... 300 ENE OF KINGKEV NAVAL BASE.. 165 KM/H - CAT2.. 180 KM/H - CAT3
96 HOURS.... 75 W OF KINGKEV NAVAL BASE..... 125 KM/H - CAT1.. 210 KM/H - CAT4

FURTHER BEYOND 96 HOURS... STORM IS EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHWEST BEYOND THE KINGKEV
NAVAL BASE... TOWARDS CAMPECHE AND OAXACA... WITH LANDFALL POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM
TAMPICO TO MÉRIDA. PREPARATIONS SHOULD START... BUT EVACUATIONS COULD CAUSE
LOGISTICAL PROBLEMS AS THE STORM IS STILL FAR AWAY.

FORECASTED BY JOHNSON/CALTS/HARDING/RYAN