Difference between revisions of "TD01 (2146)/Past"

Revision as of 23:16, 25 March 2007

Advisory 1

TCAD1 HPCOR 291730
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
5:30 PM HPT MARCH 29 2146... 3:30 PM PAX TIME

FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF NEW SEASON FORMS THREE DAYS BEFORE OFFICIAL START
OF SEASON... THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SENT TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
NEAR 3N 39E FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OCCURRING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE... WHICH CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND IS
NO LONGER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 1.5/25 KT FROM HDCW
AND UHWF... AND 2.0/30KT FROM AFLE. BASED ON RECON MEASUREMENT... INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET TO 30 KNOTS. INITIAL MOTION 000/00.

AT 5:00 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
2.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 39.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF THE
SETTLEMENT THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 55 KM/H
OR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 998 HPA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AROUND 15 KT... AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
29 DEG CELSIUS. THESE NORMALLY FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS COULD START TO DECLINE IF THE
DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND UPWELLS ITSELF.

HDCW IS THE ONLY MAINSTREAM PREDICTION MODEL THAT INITIALISES THIS SYSTEM... TAKING
IT NORTH INTO PRUDENTIA WITHIN TWO DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS... MSHPC CANNOT
RULE ANYTHING OUT... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR MINIMAL STRENGTHENING...
AND MINIMAL MOTION... BEFORE THE DEPRESSION USES UP ALL THE HEAT ENERGY IN THE SEA
AROUND IT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 29/1700H
 INITIAL... 02.8 N 39.0 E... 30 KT 
30/0300H... 02.9 N 38.9 E... 30 KT 
30/1500H... 02.9 N 38.9 E... 30 KT 
31/0300H... 03.0 N 38.9 E... 25 KT 
31/1500H... 03.1 N 39.0 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
01/1500H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 39.0 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA... SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 2145 HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS

BPCT1 HPCOR 291800
DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1 (4601)... BULLETIN NUMERO 1
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 17 HEURES HPT, 29 MARS 2146

DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1/4601 [998 HPA].

POSITION LE 29 MARS A 17 HEURES HPT: 02.8 NORD / 39.0 EST
(DEUX DEGRES HUIT NORD ET TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES EST)

DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

DÉPRESSION TROPICALE (30 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 02.9N 38.9E
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (20 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 03.1N 39.0E

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22 HEURES HPT.