Difference between revisions of "TD01 (2146)/Past"
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
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CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. | CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. | ||
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 04 HEURES HPT. | PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 04 HEURES HPT. | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==Advisory 3== | ||
| + | TCAD1 HPCOR 300345 | ||
| + | TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) ADVISORY 003 | ||
| + | [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
| + | [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | ||
| + | 3 AM HPT MARCH 30 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME | ||
| + | |||
| + | TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE STARTS TO WEAKEN... | ||
| + | |||
| + | RECONNAISSANCE DATA FROM A FLIGHT IN AT 2 AM HPT SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION | ||
| + | LOCATED EAST OF THE BLUDRAGON EMBASSY TERRITORY HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE LAST | ||
| + | FLIGHT AT 5 PM. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED... AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. LLCC | ||
| + | CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO CONSOLIDATE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM HDCW | ||
| + | IS T2.0/30 KT... UHWF ESTIMATE IS DOWN TO A T1.5/25 KT. BASED ON WEAKENING | ||
| + | SYSTEM... INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT | ||
| + | CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUAL INTENSITY MAY STILL BE 30 KT. THE RECON FAILED TO GET A | ||
| + | GOOD WIND SPEED READING. INITIAL MOTION IS 255/01. | ||
| + | |||
| + | AT 3:00 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE | ||
| + | 2.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 38.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF | ||
| + | THE SETTLEMENT THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS | ||
| + | HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 KM/H... 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL | ||
| + | PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 1001 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE | ||
| + | IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY. | ||
| + | |||
| + | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE DEPRESSION ARE STARTING TO FALL AS THE SYSTEM | ||
| + | USES UP THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WATER. SHEAR REMAINS A BEARABLE 20 KT... BUT | ||
| + | GROWS TO 40 KT EITHER SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. ALL THIS SPELLS A QUICK END FOR | ||
| + | THE DEPRESSION IN SIGHT. | ||
| + | |||
| + | HDCW STALLS THE SYSTEM AND WEAKENS IT TO A REMNANT LOW OF AROUND 1010 HPA IN | ||
| + | ABOUT 72 HOURS. UHWF CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING... ALTHOUGH NOT AS | ||
| + | BULLISH AS LAST TIME AROUND... AND NOW ONLY CALLS FOR A 35-KT MINIMAL TROPICAL | ||
| + | STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HDCW IN DROPPING THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT | ||
| + | LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 72 HOURS... | ||
| + | BUT DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR QUICKER THAN THAT. | ||
| + | |||
| + | OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT | ||
| + | INITIAL TIME... 30/0300H | ||
| + | INITIAL... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING <!-- 30/0900H... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING --> | ||
| + | 30/1500H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW <!-- 30/2100H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW --> | ||
| + | 31/0300H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW <!-- 31/0900H... 02.7 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW --> | ||
| + | 31/1500H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW <!-- 31/2100H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW --> | ||
| + | 01/0300H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 15 KT...REMNANT LOW | ||
| + | 02/0300H...DISSIPATED | ||
| + | |||
| + | REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 38.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. | ||
| + | MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY. | ||
| + | |||
| + | THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 0945 HPT. | ||
| + | |||
| + | FORECASTER JARVINEN | ||
| + | ---- | ||
| + | BPCT1 HPCOR 300400 | ||
| + | DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1 (4601)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3 | ||
| + | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN | ||
| + | BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 30 MARS 2146 | ||
| + | |||
| + | DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1/4601 [1001 HPA]. | ||
| + | |||
| + | POSITION LE 30 MARS A 03 HEURES HPT: 02.8 NORD / 38.9 EST | ||
| + | (DEUX DEGRES HUIT NORD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST) | ||
| + | |||
| + | DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST À 1 KT | ||
| + | |||
| + | DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTÈME. | ||
Latest revision as of 01:49, 28 March 2007
Advisory 1
TCAD1 HPCOR 291730 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 5:30 PM HPT MARCH 29 2146... 3:30 PM PAX TIME FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF NEW SEASON FORMS THREE DAYS BEFORE OFFICIAL START OF SEASON... THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SENT TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 3N 39E FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE... WHICH CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND IS NO LONGER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 1.5/25 KT FROM HDCW AND UHWF... AND 2.0/30KT FROM AFLE. BASED ON RECON MEASUREMENT... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KNOTS. INITIAL MOTION 000/00. AT 5:00 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 2.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 39.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF THE SETTLEMENT THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 998 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AROUND 15 KT... AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 DEG CELSIUS. THESE NORMALLY FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS COULD START TO DECLINE IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND UPWELLS ITSELF. HDCW IS THE ONLY MAINSTREAM PREDICTION MODEL THAT INITIALISES THIS SYSTEM... TAKING IT NORTH INTO PRUDENTIA WITHIN TWO DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS... MSHPC CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR MINIMAL STRENGTHENING... AND MINIMAL MOTION... BEFORE THE DEPRESSION USES UP ALL THE HEAT ENERGY IN THE SEA AROUND IT. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 29/1700H INITIAL... 02.8 N 39.0 E... 30 KT 30/0300H... 02.9 N 38.9 E... 30 KT 30/1500H... 02.9 N 38.9 E... 30 KT 31/0300H... 03.0 N 38.9 E... 25 KT 31/1500H... 03.1 N 39.0 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 01/1500H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 39.0 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA... SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 2145 HPT. FORECASTER CALTS
BPCT1 HPCOR 291800 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1 (4601)... BULLETIN NUMERO 1 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 17 HEURES HPT, 29 MARS 2146 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1/4601 [998 HPA]. POSITION LE 29 MARS A 17 HEURES HPT: 02.8 NORD / 39.0 EST (DEUX DEGRES HUIT NORD ET TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES EST) DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: DÉPRESSION TROPICALE (30 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 02.9N 38.9E PERTURBATION TROPICALE (20 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 03.1N 39.0E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22 HEURES HPT.
Advisory 2
TCAD1 HPCOR 292140 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 PM HPT MARCH 29 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY... THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SENT TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AT 5 PM HPT FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND ADVISORIES WERE INITIATED AT 5:30. DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND TRYING TO FORM. STRENGTHENING LLCC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0/30KT FROM UHWF... AND 2.5/35KT FROM HDCW AND AFLE. HOWEVER... SINCE THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS OTHERWISE REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD TO 30 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 255/01. AT 9:00 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 2.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 39.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF THE SETTLEMENT THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 997 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AROUND 15 KT... AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 DEG CELSIUS. SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 35 KT NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM... SO ANY MOVEMENT IN THAT DIRECTION WOULD KILL THE DEPRESSION. SSTS DROP OFF TO AROUND 27C WEST OF THE SYSTEM... BUT THE 26-DEGREE ISOTHERM IS QUITE FAR TO THE WEST... MEANING THAT THERE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT HEAT CONTENT TO SUSTAIN A STORM. SHEAR ON THAT SIDE GROWS TO 40 KT AROUND 37.5E LONGITUDE. HDCW MODEL NOW TRACKS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WSW... BUT NEVER GOING FARTHER WEST THAN 38.5E LONGITUDE WITHIN 144 HOURS. UHWF INITIALISES SYSTEM WEAKLY... BUT STRENGTHENS IT TO A 50-KT INTENSE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE RAPID WEAKENING. OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW HDCW... AND WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR NOTHING MORE THAN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 29/2100H INITIAL... 02.8 N 39.0 E... 30 KT 30/0900H... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 30 KT 30/2100H... 02.7 N 38.8 E... 30 KT 31/0900H... 02.7 N 38.8 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING 31/2100H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 01/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 39.0 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 0345 HPT. FORECASTER RINDLI
BPCT1 HPCOR 292200 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1 (4601)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 21 HEURES HPT, 29 MARS 2146 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1/4601 [997 HPA]. POSITION LE 29 MARS A 21 HEURES HPT: 02.8 NORD / 39.0 EST (DEUX DEGRES HUIT NORD ET TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST À 1 KT VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: DÉPRESSION TROPICALE (30 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 02.7N 38.8E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 04 HEURES HPT.
Advisory 3
TCAD1 HPCOR 300345 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 AM HPT MARCH 30 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE STARTS TO WEAKEN... RECONNAISSANCE DATA FROM A FLIGHT IN AT 2 AM HPT SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION LOCATED EAST OF THE BLUDRAGON EMBASSY TERRITORY HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE LAST FLIGHT AT 5 PM. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED... AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. LLCC CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO CONSOLIDATE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM HDCW IS T2.0/30 KT... UHWF ESTIMATE IS DOWN TO A T1.5/25 KT. BASED ON WEAKENING SYSTEM... INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUAL INTENSITY MAY STILL BE 30 KT. THE RECON FAILED TO GET A GOOD WIND SPEED READING. INITIAL MOTION IS 255/01. AT 3:00 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 2.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 38.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF THE SETTLEMENT THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 KM/H... 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 1001 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE DEPRESSION ARE STARTING TO FALL AS THE SYSTEM USES UP THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WATER. SHEAR REMAINS A BEARABLE 20 KT... BUT GROWS TO 40 KT EITHER SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. ALL THIS SPELLS A QUICK END FOR THE DEPRESSION IN SIGHT. HDCW STALLS THE SYSTEM AND WEAKENS IT TO A REMNANT LOW OF AROUND 1010 HPA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. UHWF CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING... ALTHOUGH NOT AS BULLISH AS LAST TIME AROUND... AND NOW ONLY CALLS FOR A 35-KT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HDCW IN DROPPING THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 72 HOURS... BUT DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR QUICKER THAN THAT. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 30/0300H INITIAL... 02.8 N 38.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING 30/1500H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 31/0300H... 02.8 N 38.8 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 31/1500H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 01/0300H... 02.7 N 38.7 E... 15 KT...REMNANT LOW 02/0300H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 38.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST VERY SLOWLY. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 0945 HPT. FORECASTER JARVINEN
BPCT1 HPCOR 300400 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1 (4601)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 30 MARS 2146 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 1/4601 [1001 HPA]. POSITION LE 30 MARS A 03 HEURES HPT: 02.8 NORD / 38.9 EST (DEUX DEGRES HUIT NORD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST À 1 KT DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTÈME.
