TD01 (2146)/Past
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Advisory 1
TCAD1 HPCWT 291730 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (4601) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 5:30 PM HPT MARCH 29 2146... 3:30 PM PAX TIME FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF NEW SEASON FORMS THREE DAYS BEFORE OFFICIAL START OF SEASON... THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SENT TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 3N 39E FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE... WHICH CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND IS NO LONGER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 1.5/25 KT FROM HDCW AND UHWF... AND 2.0/30KT FROM AFLE. BASED ON RECON MEASUREMENT... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KNOTS. INITIAL MOTION 000/00. AT 5:00 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 2.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 39.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 3420 KM... 2135 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF THE SETTLEMENT THAT WAS FORMERLY RECHON, HOLY SOCKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 998 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AROUND 15 KT... AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 DEG CELSIUS. THESE NORMALLY FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS COULD START TO DECLINE IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND UPWELLS ITSELF. HDCW IS THE ONLY MAINSTREAM PREDICTION MODEL THAT INITIALISES THIS SYSTEM... TAKING IT NORTH INTO PRUDENTIA WITHIN TWO DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS... MSHPC CANNOT RULE ANYTHING OUT... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR MINIMAL STRENGTHENING... AND MINIMAL MOTION... BEFORE THE DEPRESSION USES UP ALL THE HEAT ENERGY IN THE SEA AROUND IT. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 29/1700H INITIAL... 02.8 N 39.0 E... 30 KT 30/0300H... 02.9 N 38.9 E... 30 KT 30/1500H... 02.9 N 38.9 E... 30 KT 31/0300H... 03.0 N 38.9 E... 25 KT 31/1500H... 03.1 N 39.0 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 01/1500H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION... 02.8 NORTH 39.0 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA... SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 2145 HPT. FORECASTER CALTS