TD04/06 (2146)
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ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. |
| Tropical Depression Four | |
|---|---|
| Tropical depression | |
| As of: | 1500 HPT June 17, 2146 |
| Location: | 17.4°N 43.2°E 420 km (260 miles) southeast of Tendium, Odipous |
| Maximum winds: |
55 km/h (35 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 1004 hPa |
| Movement: | Northwest at 19 kt |
| Past advisories and discussions available here | |
TCAD4 WHLC 171545 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR [4604] ADVISORY 2 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 3 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM YET... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ODIPOUS... BASED ON EARLIER DATA...I COULD POSSIBLY HAVE JUSTIFIED UPGRADING TD-FOUR TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES HAVE EVENED OUT AT T2.0/30 KT FROM AFLE AND HDCW...AND REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM UHWF. SINCE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HASN'T BECOME ANY BETTER...AND WITH A LACK OF OTHER JUSTIFICATION FOR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...AT 30 KT. ANOTHER HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER TONIGHT. INITIAL MOTION...325/13. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS... INCLUDING THE ULE MILITARY BASE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. EVEN IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FAILS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...THE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE DEPRESSION CLEARS THE ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 3 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 42.9 EAST...OR ABOUT 260 KM... 160 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 25 KM/H... 15 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE ULE MILITARY BASE IN 18 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 HPA...29.65 INCHES OF MERCURY. ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED THROUGH. THE FORECAST PROGNOSTIC HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 OR SO HOURS IS VERY STRONG...THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT IS DRIVEN BY STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STILL...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME. HOW MUCH A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL AFFECT ON THE RIDGE IS THE UNKNOWN. NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUSLY...ASSUMING THAT IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS ...AND IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN THE FIRST 48H. IT IS NOT A HIGH- CONFIDENCE FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS...AND THE STORM COULD BE MOVING FASTER THAN FORECAST...OR EVEN IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION. INTENSITY-WISE...THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM HASN'T MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH MIGHT GO SOME WAY TO EXPLAINING WHY THIS HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. THERE IS STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES TENDIUM...BUT WE EXPECT THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL AGAIN SLOW ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING. BEYOND THAT...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM...NEAR 28 C...AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. IF THE CYCLONE RETAINS ITS FAIRLY SMALL SIZE PAST ODIPOUS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING. AGAIN...FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS NOT HIGH-CONFIDENCE. A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED WOULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTENSITY...AS WOULD A DIFFERENT TRACK. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...17/1500H INITIAL... 17.9 N 42.9 E... 30 KT 18/0300H... 18.8 N 42.2 E... 35 KT 18/1500H... 19.8 N 41.5 E... 35 KT 19/0300H... 20.7 N 40.8 E... 40 KT 19/1500H... 21.4 N 40.0 E... 50 KT 20/1500H... 22.4 N 38.6 E... 60 KT 21/1500H... 24.0 N 36.6 E... 70 KT REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 17.9 NORTH 42.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 7...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1830 HPT. FORECASTER RYAN
TCTW04 FOLN 171540 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA ISSUED 1540 HPT JUNE 17 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1500H JUNE 17 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: TD FOUR WARNING NR: 2 POSITION: 17.9N 42.9E ACCURACY: 35NM MOVEMENT: NW 13KT CENT PRES: 1004HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 18.8N 42.2E FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT NEXT WARNING AT: 2100H JUNE 17 2146=
