Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)/Past"
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ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. |
Contents
Advisory 1
TCAD4 WHLC 171025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR [4604] ADVISORY 1 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 10 AM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 8 AM PAX TIME ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ODIPOUS FINDS A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF ODIPOUS FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND 38 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS... ABOUT 32 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 0645 PAX...0845 HPT... WERE T1.5/25 KTS FROM AFLE...AND T2.5/35 KTS FROM UHWF AND HDCW. THIS DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD SKIP TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE SAT FIXES...WILL GO FOR A CONSERVATIVE 30 KTS...MAKING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. INITIAL MOTION...330/14. AT 10 AM HPT...8 AM PAX TIME...THE GOVERNMENT OF HERCONIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE CROWN COLONY OF ODIPOUS... INCLUDING THE ULE MILITARY BASE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 10 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 43.2 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 420 KM... 260 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 26 KM/H... 16 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES OF MERCURY. ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED THROUGH. IN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST MODELS THAT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STEERING CURRENTS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...MODELS START TO DIVERGE. AT BAT HERE IS TO WHAT EXTENT A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE ON THE RIDGE. ASSUMING THAT IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND SLOWS IT DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM ITS CURRENT SPEED. OF COURSE...THIS IS BY NO MEANS A HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS...AND THE STORM COULD BE MOVING FASTER THAN FORECAST. INTENSITY-WISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IF IT MOVES OVER THE CYCLONE...SOME STRENGTHENING CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS RETARDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT... WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM...NEAR 28 C...AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. IF TD-FOUR IS STILL A FAIRLY SMALL SYSTEM PAST THE ISLANDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AGAIN...FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS NOT HIGH-CONFIDENCE. A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED WOULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTENSITY. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...17/1000H INITIAL... 17.4 N 43.2 E... 30 KT 17/2100H... 18.3 N 42.5 E... 35 KT 18/0900H... 19.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT 18/2100H... 20.3 N 41.2 E... 45 KT 19/0900H... 21.2 N 40.3 E... 50 KT 20/0900H... 22.0 N 39.1 E... 60 KT 21/0900H... 22.9 N 37.9 E... 65 KT REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION... NEAR 17.4 NORTH 43.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 7. FORECASTER RYAN
TCTW04 FOLN 171030 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA ISSUED 1030 HPT JUNE 17 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1000H JUNE 17 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: TD FOUR WARNING NR: 1 POSITION: 17.4N 43.2E ACCURACY: 40NM MOVEMENT: NW 14KT CENT PRES: 1006HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 11HR PSTN: 18.3N 42.5E FCST 11HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT NEXT WARNING AT: 1500H JUNE 17 2146=
Advisory 2
TCAD4 WHLC 171545 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR [4604] ADVISORY 2 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 3 PM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM YET... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ODIPOUS... BASED ON EARLIER DATA...I COULD POSSIBLY HAVE JUSTIFIED UPGRADING TD-FOUR TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES HAVE EVENED OUT AT T2.0/30 KT FROM AFLE AND HDCW...AND REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM UHWF. SINCE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HASN'T BECOME ANY BETTER...AND WITH A LACK OF OTHER JUSTIFICATION FOR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...AT 30 KT. ANOTHER HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER TONIGHT. INITIAL MOTION...325/13. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS... INCLUDING THE ULE MILITARY BASE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. EVEN IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FAILS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...THE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE DEPRESSION CLEARS THE ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 3 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 42.9 EAST...OR ABOUT 260 KM... 160 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 25 KM/H... 15 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE ULE MILITARY BASE IN 18 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 HPA...29.65 INCHES OF MERCURY. ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED THROUGH. THE FORECAST PROGNOSTIC HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 OR SO HOURS IS VERY STRONG...THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT IS DRIVEN BY STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STILL...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME. HOW MUCH A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL AFFECT ON THE RIDGE IS THE UNKNOWN. NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUSLY...ASSUMING THAT IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS ...AND IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN THE FIRST 48H. IT IS NOT A HIGH- CONFIDENCE FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS...AND THE STORM COULD BE MOVING FASTER THAN FORECAST...OR EVEN IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION. INTENSITY-WISE...THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM HASN'T MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH MIGHT GO SOME WAY TO EXPLAINING WHY THIS HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. THERE IS STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES TENDIUM...BUT WE EXPECT THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL AGAIN SLOW ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING. BEYOND THAT...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM...NEAR 28 C...AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. IF THE CYCLONE RETAINS ITS FAIRLY SMALL SIZE PAST ODIPOUS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING. AGAIN...FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS NOT HIGH-CONFIDENCE. A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED WOULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTENSITY...AS WOULD A DIFFERENT TRACK. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...17/1500H INITIAL... 17.9 N 42.9 E... 30 KT 18/0300H... 18.8 N 42.2 E... 35 KT 18/1500H... 19.8 N 41.5 E... 35 KT 19/0300H... 20.7 N 40.8 E... 40 KT 19/1500H... 21.4 N 40.0 E... 50 KT 20/1500H... 22.4 N 38.6 E... 60 KT 21/1500H... 24.0 N 36.6 E... 70 KT REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 17.9 NORTH 42.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 7...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1830 HPT. FORECASTER RYAN
TCTW04 FOLN 171540 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA ISSUED 1540 HPT JUNE 17 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1500H JUNE 17 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: TD FOUR WARNING NR: 2 POSITION: 17.9N 42.9E ACCURACY: 35NM MOVEMENT: NW 13KT CENT PRES: 1004HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 18.8N 42.2E FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT NEXT WARNING AT: 2100H JUNE 17 2146=
Intermediate Advisory 2A
TCIA4 WHLC 171820 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 2A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY 6 PM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME ...DEPRESSION STILL NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM... ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AT 6 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 42.6 EAST...OR ABOUT 210 KM... 130 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS. THIS POSITION IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM WOBBLE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT...AS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE... RAINBANDS SHOULD ALREADY BE AFFECTING SOUTHERN ODIPOUS...AND WILL REACH LAND WELL BEFORE THE CENTRE DOES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 25 KM/H... 15 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS ...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE ULE MILITARY BASE IN JUST OVER 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE AN APPARENT LACK OF STRENGTHENING IN SPITE OF GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REMAINS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTRE OF THE CYCLONE REACHES SOUTHERN ODIPOUS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 HPA...29.62 INCHES OF MERCURY. ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED THROUGH. REPEATING THE LATEST...6 PM...POSITION...18.0 N 42.6 E...ABOUT 230 KM SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 HPA. MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST AT 25 KM/H. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT. FORECASTER RYAN
Advisory 3
TCAD4 WHLC 172135 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY 3 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY 9 PM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISSIPATING... ...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... BASED ON EARLIER DATA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS SHORTLY A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW HOURS. SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS INVESTIGATING TD FOUR ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO AGO DID NOT FIND A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTRE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASSES CONFIRM NO OBVIOUS LLC. THEREFORE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED AT THIS TIME. THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE DISTURBANCE/REMNANT CONVECTION FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE 37 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL...ABOUT 30 KT AT SURFACE...SO I HAVE RATHER GENEROUSLY KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KNOTS. THERE IS NO LOW-LEVEL CENTRE TO TRACK...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE AREA IS ABOUT 320/12. AT 9 PM HPT...THE GOVERNMENT OF HERCONIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO NOTE THAT THIS DOES NOT MEAN 34-KT WINDS WILL NOT SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS...IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 PM HPT...THERE WAS NOT A DISCERNIBLE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. AT BEST...THE REMNANT CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS... WITH WHAT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE CENTRE NOW JUST OFFSHORE TENDIUM. GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 22 KM/H... 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAIN NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE REMNANT WAVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 HPA...29.80 INCHES OF MERCURY. ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...25 TO 100 MM...1 TO 4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 125 MM...5 INCHES. EVERYONE IN THE OFFICE HAS BEEN CAUGHT RATHER OFF-GUARD BY THE SUDDEN DETERIORATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN DISCUSSIONS WITH THE HURRICANE CENTRE HEADQUARTERS IN OREAN...IT WAS AGREED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...WOULD BE DROPPED FROM ACTIVE WARNINGS. IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUED RETARDATION OF ANY INTENSIFICATION...FOR WHATEVER REASON...COUPLED WITH LAND EFFECTS FROM THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...HAVE CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE OF THE DEPRESSION TO LOSE IT. OBVIOUSLY...THE MODELS DID NOT SEE THIS COMING. ALL THE MODELS WHICH RAN AT 18 HPT STILL HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING WNW INTO THE MAUVIDIAN SEA. HOWEVER...AS THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE ARE NOW BEING STEERED MORE EASILY BY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE FORECAST IS VERY VERY UNCERTAIN. GIVEN CONTINUITY...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST... ESPECIALLY IN LIEU OF MORE RECENT DATA. HOWEVER THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CONTINUITY IN THE CYCLONE...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...AND ITS STRUCTURE...SO THIS IS A SHOT IN THE DARK. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS... AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL REGENERATE. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE DISSIPATION OF THE ORIGINAL LOW-LEVEL CENTRE...ANY NEW CYCLONE WOULD BE GIVEN A NEW NUMBER. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...17/2100H INITIAL...DISSIPATED THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE. ANY NEW WARNINGS ON A SYSTEM WITH A NEW CIRCULATION WOULD BE UNDER A NEW DESIGNATION. FORECASTER RYAN
TCTW04 FOLN 172130 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA ISSUED 2130 HPT JUNE 17 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 2100H JUNE 17 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: TD FOUR WARNING NR: 3 POSITION: CENTRE DISSIPATED ACCURACY: NIL MOVEMENT: NIL CENT PRES: NIL MAX WIND: REMNANT 30KT MAX GUST: REMNANT 40KT FCST 12HR PSTN: NIL FCST 12HR WINDS: NIL NEXT WARNING AT: NO FURTHER WARNINGS=
Remnants discussion 1
WXDD1 XHWS 180245 REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION 1 HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 2:45 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146 THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS CIRCULATION CENTRE ON RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A HWS RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE REMNANT SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING...IF NECESSARY. RECENTLY...TENDIUM REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 28 KT...GUSTING TO 36 KT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. WHILE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 150 MM...6 INCHES...COULD CAUSE SUDDEN FLASH FLOODING AT LOW GROUND. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. OVER THE PAST FIVE HOURS SINCE THE LAST HURRICANE CENTRE ADVISORY... THE REMNANT DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT NORTHWARDS. MOST MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONEX /HDCW CONSENSUS AND EXTRAPOLATION/... AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS WILL DEEPEN AGAIN NORTH OF ODIPOUS AND REFORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHICH WAY IT WILL GO AT THAT POINT...IS FAIRLY SPLIT. HDCW...AFLE...AND THE IN-HOUSE HWS MODEL RUNS ALL BRING IT ALONG THE OLD HURRICANE CENTRE FORECAST TRACK...NORTHWEST INTO THE MAUVIDIAN SEA TOWARDS EASTERN PRUDENTIA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE SMALLER MODELS BRING IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KOMPA RU. THIS FORCED CONEX TO BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE OLD HURRICANE CENTRE TRACK...WHICH WOULD MEAN ANY REGENERATED CYCLONE IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN WEST KOMPA RU. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. FURTHER DISTURBANCE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AT 0245...0845...1445...AND 2045 HPT DAILY. IF THERE IS NO NEW INFORMATION...A BULLETIN MAY BE SKIPPED OVER...BUT IF NEW INFORMATION IS MADE KNOWN BETWEEN A SKIPPED BULLETIN AND THE NEXT SCHEDULED ONE... A SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED...EITHER BY THE HWS OR THE HURRICANE CENTRE...AS APPROPRIATE. FORECASTER MICHAELS/RYAN
Remnants discussion 2
WXDD1 XHWS 181145 CCA REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION 2...COR HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 11:45 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146 ...CORRECTED TIME SINCE LAST HURRICANE CENTRE ADVISORY... A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE TROPICAL CYCLONE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS PRESENTLY INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 34 KNOTS...ABOUT 29 AT THE SURFACE. NO CLOSED LOW REPORTED YET. THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT VERY WELL-ORGANISED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...ESPECIALLY HEAVY ON THE ULE MILITARY BASE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS... EXCEPT ULE ISLAND...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. SINCE OUR LAST DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANISED. THE PATCHES OF CONVECTION SHOW NO SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATION AT THIS POINT...SO EVEN IF THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS A CLOSED LOW IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE CENTRE WILL RESTART ADVISORIES...NOT IMMEDIATELY ANYWAY. MODELS RUN AT 06 HPT...INITIALISED THE GEOGRAPHICAL CENTRE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS/MESS NORTH OF ODIPOUS...WHICH IS AROUND WHERE THE LAST HURRICANE CENTRE FORECAST TRACK ABOUT 14 HOURS AGO FORECAST IT TO BE. IF THIS IS RIGHT...FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST A QUICK REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. FURTHER DISTURBANCE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AT 0245...0845...1445...AND 2045 HPT DAILY. IF THERE IS NO NEW INFORMATION...A BULLETIN MAY BE SKIPPED OVER...BUT IF NEW INFORMATION IS MADE KNOWN BETWEEN A SKIPPED BULLETIN AND THE NEXT SCHEDULED ONE... A SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED...EITHER BY THE HWS OR THE HURRICANE CENTRE...AS APPROPRIATE. FORECASTER MICHAELS
Remnants discussion 3
WXDD1 XHWS 182045 REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION 3 HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 8:45 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146 THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA RECEIVED HERE IN LUNAR CITY SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ARE CLOSE TO REGENERATING. WHILE AN EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT...AROUND NOON HPT...FOUND A RATHER DISORGANISED SYSTEM...A PEAK WIND OF 29 KT WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN A SOUTHERN BAND OF THE SYSTEM ON ULE MILITARY BASE IN ODIPOUS...WHICH COULD SUGGEST SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF WINDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE DISTURBANCE TO SEE IF IT CAN CLOSE OFF A CENTRE. IF IT DOES...WE EXPECT THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TO INITIATE ADVISORIES ON SUB/TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX SOME TIME LATER TONIGHT. A REMNANT SOUTHERN BAND OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL AFFECTING NORTHERN TENDIUM ISLAND...BUT OTHERWISE ALL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR ODIPOUS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IF THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE MAUVIDIAN SEA. AS THE DISTURBANCE IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO AFFECT LAND...THIS IS THE FINAL HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THEIR TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATES /TWUTH WHCO/. SHOULD THIS DISTURBANCE BE FORECAST TO AFFECT LAND AGAIN...WHILE NOT A SUB/TROPICAL CYCLONE...DISTURBANCE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE REINITIATED. FORECASTER MICHAELS
