TD04/06 (2146)/Past
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Advisory 1
TCAD4 WHLC 171025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR [4604] ADVISORY 1 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 10 AM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 8 AM PAX TIME ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ODIPOUS FINDS A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF ODIPOUS FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND 38 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS... ABOUT 32 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 0645 PAX...0845 HPT... WERE T1.5/25 KTS FROM AFLE...AND T2.5/35 KTS FROM UHWF AND HDCW. THIS DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD SKIP TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE SAT FIXES...WILL GO FOR A CONSERVATIVE 30 KTS...MAKING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. INITIAL MOTION...330/14. AT 10 AM HPT...8 AM PAX TIME...THE GOVERNMENT OF HERCONIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE CROWN COLONY OF ODIPOUS... INCLUDING THE ULE MILITARY BASE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 10 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 43.2 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 420 KM... 260 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 26 KM/H... 16 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES OF MERCURY. ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED THROUGH. IN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST MODELS THAT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STEERING CURRENTS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...MODELS START TO DIVERGE. AT BAT HERE IS TO WHAT EXTENT A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE ON THE RIDGE. ASSUMING THAT IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND SLOWS IT DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM ITS CURRENT SPEED. OF COURSE...THIS IS BY NO MEANS A HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS...AND THE STORM COULD BE MOVING FASTER THAN FORECAST. INTENSITY-WISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IF IT MOVES OVER THE CYCLONE...SOME STRENGTHENING CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS RETARDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT... WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM...NEAR 28 C...AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. IF TD-FOUR IS STILL A FAIRLY SMALL SYSTEM PAST THE ISLANDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AGAIN...FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS NOT HIGH-CONFIDENCE. A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED WOULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTENSITY. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...17/1000H INITIAL... 17.4 N 43.2 E... 30 KT 17/2100H... 18.3 N 42.5 E... 35 KT 18/0900H... 19.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT 18/2100H... 20.3 N 41.2 E... 45 KT 19/0900H... 21.2 N 40.3 E... 50 KT 20/0900H... 22.0 N 39.1 E... 60 KT 21/0900H... 22.9 N 37.9 E... 65 KT REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION... NEAR 17.4 NORTH 43.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 7. FORECASTER RYAN
TCTW04 FOLN 171030 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA ISSUED 1030 HPT JUNE 17 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1000H JUNE 17 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: TD FOUR WARNING NR: 1 POSITION: 17.4N 43.2E ACCURACY: 40NM MOVEMENT: NW 14KT CENT PRES: 1006HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 11HR PSTN: 18.3N 42.5E FCST 11HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT NEXT WARNING AT: 1500H JUNE 17 2146=
