Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2145)"

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{{Storm active|name=Tropical Storm Ruva
 
{{Storm active|name=Tropical Storm Ruva
 
|colour=storm
 
|colour=storm
|local time=2130
+
|local time=0030
|date=March 3
+
|date=March 4
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
|location=360 km NW of [[Loyalty Bay]], [[PopularFreedom]]
+
|location=240 km NW of [[Loyalty Bay]], [[PopularFreedom]]
|windmph=40
+
|windmph=45
|windkph=65
+
|windkph=75
 
|windtype=1-minute mean
 
|windtype=1-minute mean
|pressurehPa=1000
+
|pressurehPa=996
|cmHg=75.00
+
|cmHg=74.70
|inHg=29.53
+
|inHg=29.42
 
|direction=Southeast
 
|direction=Southeast
 
|movemph=25
 
|movemph=25
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|advisory=latest}}
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
----
 
----
  TROPICAL STORM RUVA (4505) ADVISORY 003
+
  TROPICAL STORM RUVA (4505) ADVISORY 004
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
  MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
+
  HPD 26 HEARTLAND WEATHER BUREAU IN ASSOCIATION WITH MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
  9:30 PM LOCAL TIME... 9 PM HPT... 7 PM PAX... MAR 3 2145
+
  12 AM HPT... 12:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 2145... 10 PM PAX MAR 3
 
   
 
   
  LATEST DATA... DVORAK ANALYSIS... AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE DECISION
+
  THE LATEST DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM RUVA HAS INTENSIFIED. AFLE MODEL
  TO HOLD RUVA'S INTENSITY IS THE RIGHT ONE. AS SUCH... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RETAINED
+
SUGGESTS 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A HURRICANE... 65 KT OR GREATER... BEFORE LANDFALL
  AT 35 KT. THE AFLE... LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE... MODEL ESTIMATES IT AS A 40-KT
+
  IN SIX HOURS... AS IT GREATLY INTENSIFIES THIS STORM. UNIVERSAL HEARTLAND WEATHER
TROPICAL STORM... AND THE PREDICTION THAT ONE OF ITS SMALL BANDS BREAKING AWAY IN A
+
  FORECAST... UHWF MODEL... SUGGESTS CURRENT INTENSITY BETWEEN 38–47 KT... AND
  CIRCULATION OF ITS OWN HAS MATERIALISED... AND RESIDENTS SHOULD NOW WATCH OUT FOR BOTH
+
  BEING CONSERVATIVE... THE MSHPC WILL SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY
  TROPICAL STORM RUVA... AS WELL AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX.  
+
  TO 40 KT SUSTAINED WINDS...
 
   
 
   
  TROPICAL STORM RUVA HAS DECREASED IN FORWARD SPEED... NOW MOVING 135/20... SOUTHEAST
+
  RUVA IS NOW CENTRED JUST 240 KM... 150 MILES... NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM.
AT 20 KT... 40 KM/H. WITH A SLIGHT READJUSTMENT OF THE STORM'S POSITION... RUVA IS
+
CENTRED ABOUT 360 KM... 225 MILES... NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM.
+
 
  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM
 
  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM
 
  LOYALTY BAY NORTH TO PEARSON CLIFFS.
 
  LOYALTY BAY NORTH TO PEARSON CLIFFS.
 
   
 
   
  RUVA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... GUSTING TO 55 KT... AND SOME
+
  RUVA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... GUSTING TO 55 KT... AND SOME
  SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1000
+
  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS 996
  HPA... 75.00 CMHG OR 29.53 INHG. RUVA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/H... 25 MPH.
+
  HPA... 74.70 CMHG OR 29.42 INHG. RUVA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/H... 25 MPH.
 
   
 
   
 
  TROPICAL STORM RUVA IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM WITHIN
 
  TROPICAL STORM RUVA IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM WITHIN
  9 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION BEHIND IT... STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH LARGER SYSTEM
+
  SIX HOURS... PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED.
... SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS BAND OF
+
CLOUDS AS IT HARBOURS TWO... NOT ONE... TROPICAL CYCLONES... BOTH WITH THE POWER TO KILL.
+
PLEASE TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
 
  THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
   INITIAL... 360 KM  NW LOYALTY BAY... 35 KT
+
   INITIAL... 240 KM  NW LOYALTY BAY... 40 KT
   6 HOURS... 115 KM  NW LOYALTY BAY... 45 KT
+
   6 HOURS... JUST    NW LOYALTY BAY... 50 KT
  12 HOURS... INLAND NEAR LOYALTY BAY... 30 KT... DISSIPATING
+
  12 HOURS... INLAND   SE LOYALTY BAY... 25 KT...DISSIPATED
 
   
 
   
  REPEATING THE 9:30 PM POSITION... 360 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
  REPEATING THE 12 AM HPT POSITION... 240 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY. MAXIMUM
  WINDS ARE 65 KM/H... GUSTING TO 100 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA... RUVA
+
  SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... GUSTING TO 100 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA...
  IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/H.
+
  RUVA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
  THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM HPT... 12:30 AM LOCAL TIME.
+
  THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME.
 
   
 
   
  FORECASTER GUNTHER/RINDLI
+
  FORECASTER CALTS/HARDING/LTG IRWIN

Revision as of 09:48, 14 July 2006

Current storm status
Tropical Storm Ruva
As of: 0030 local time March 4, 2145
Location: 240 km NW of Loyalty Bay, PopularFreedom
Winds: 75 km/h (45 mph) (1-minute mean)
Pressure: 996 hPa/mbar (74.70 cmHg, 29.42 inHg)
Movement: Southeast at 40 km/h (25 mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here

TROPICAL STORM RUVA (4505) ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
HPD 26 HEARTLAND WEATHER BUREAU IN ASSOCIATION WITH MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
12 AM HPT... 12:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 2145... 10 PM PAX MAR 3

THE LATEST DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM RUVA HAS INTENSIFIED. AFLE MODEL
SUGGESTS 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A HURRICANE... 65 KT OR GREATER... BEFORE LANDFALL
IN SIX HOURS... AS IT GREATLY INTENSIFIES THIS STORM. UNIVERSAL HEARTLAND WEATHER
FORECAST... UHWF MODEL... SUGGESTS CURRENT INTENSITY BETWEEN 38–47 KT... AND
BEING CONSERVATIVE... THE MSHPC WILL SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY
TO 40 KT SUSTAINED WINDS...

RUVA IS NOW CENTRED JUST 240 KM... 150 MILES... NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY, POPULARFREEDOM.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM
LOYALTY BAY NORTH TO PEARSON CLIFFS.

RUVA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... GUSTING TO 55 KT... AND SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS 996
HPA... 74.70 CMHG OR 29.42 INHG. RUVA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/H... 25 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM RUVA IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM WITHIN
SIX HOURS... PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
 INITIAL... 240 KM   NW LOYALTY BAY... 40 KT
 6 HOURS... JUST     NW LOYALTY BAY... 50 KT
12 HOURS... INLAND   SE LOYALTY BAY... 25 KT...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 12 AM HPT POSITION... 240 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... GUSTING TO 100 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA...
RUVA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/H.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME.

FORECASTER CALTS/HARDING/LTG IRWIN