Difference between revisions of "TD19 (2145)"

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{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Depression Nineteen
 
{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Depression Nineteen
−
|category=depression|type=Tropical Depression
+
|category=depression|type=Tropical depression
−
|local time=1700
+
|local time=1100
−
|date=July 30
+
|date=July 31
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 40.6°N 35.5°E]<br/>About 600 km (375 miles) southeast of Magna Carta, PopularFreedom
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 41.8°N 36.4°E]
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|winds=45 km/h (35 mph)
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|winds=45 km/h (30 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=1006 hPa
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|pressure=1008 hPa
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|movement=North at 16 km/h (10 mph)
+
|movement=Stationary
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|advisory=first}}
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|advisory=final}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
 
  4519 TCWC HPCLC
 
  4519 TCWC HPCLC
−
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (4519) ADVISORY 001
+
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (4519) FORECAST/ADVISORY 004
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU WARNING CENTRE
 
  LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU WARNING CENTRE
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  1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME JUL 30 2145
+
  7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 31 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  THE SYSTEM THAT ABSORBED THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRENT
+
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS DISSIPATING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE
−
HAS SHOWN SUFFICIENT ORGANISATION OVER THE LAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS TO BE
+
  HAS DECOUPLED FROM WHATEVER REMAINING CONVECTION THERE WAS. DUE TO
−
DECLARED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. RECENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS ASYMMETRIC...
+
  UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED.
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BUT WARM-CORE IN NATURE. BASED ON SHIP REPORTS FROM HA47D... QUALITY-CONTROLLED
+
−
  T00A8... AND THE NLES RUSSELL... LOCATED 150 NE... 175 SE AND 240 NW NAUTICAL MILES
+
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RESPECTIVELY FROM THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM OF 23... 18 (QUALITY CONTROLLED FOR
+
−
  BEING TOO LOW)... AND 20 KNOTS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS 25 KT.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 PM HPT... THE ILL-DEFINED CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED
+
  AT 9 AM HPT... CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 35 NM OF 41.8N
−
BY A COMBINATION OF RADAR... SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND SHIP REPORTS... NEAR LATITUDE
+
  36.4E. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS... 25 KT. GUSTS... 30 KT.
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  40.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 35.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 600 KM... 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
+
−
MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H... 35 MPH.
+
−
THE SYSTEM HAS AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 HPA... AND IS MOVING
+
−
NORTH AT 16 KM/H... 10 MPH.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE COLD WATERS IN THE WAKE OF BRENT DO NOT SUPPORT A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE...
+
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1008 HPA.
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AND INDEED A COLD FRONT JUST DEPARTING TO THE NW SUGGESTS THAT SHOULD THIS SYSTEM
+
−
EVEN ATTEMPT TO GET CLOSER TO LAND TO THE NW... IT WILL QUICKLY BE SHEARED TO DEATH.
+
−
I WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BASED OFF THE HDCW EXTP... THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
+
−
SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWARD BEFORE A SHARP ENE TURN FORCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
+
−
NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES
+
−
NOT EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
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  MOVEMENT... STATIONARY.
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INITIAL TIME IS 30/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
+
−
  INITIAL... 40.6 N 35.5 E... 25 KT
+
−
30/2100H... 41.0 N 35.6 E... 25 KT
+
−
31/0300H... 41.5 N 35.7 E... 30 KT <!-- 31/0900H... 41.8 N 36.4 E... 30 KT -->
+
−
31/1500H... 42.0 N 37.0 E... 25 KT...INLAND NEAR DANJLGRAD
+
−
31/2100H...DISSIPATED
+
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... NEAR 40.6 N 35.5 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
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  OFFICIAL FORECAST
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ARE NEAR 45 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
+
INITIAL TIME IS 31/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
−
  N AT 16 KM/H.
+
  INITIAL... 41.8 N 36.4 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
 +
  31/1500H...DISSIPATED
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT ADVISORY/DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WILL BE ISSUED AT
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  THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM.
−
9 PM HPT.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER LAVAL
+
  FORECASTER KRUGER

Latest revision as of 03:41, 19 November 2006

Latest storm information
Tropical Depression Nineteen
Tropical depression
As of: 1100 local time July 31, 2145
Location: 41.8°N 36.4°E
Maximum
winds: 		45 km/h (30 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1008 hPa
Movement: Stationary
See final advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4519 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (4519) FORECAST/ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU WARNING CENTRE
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 31 2145

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS DISSIPATING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE
HAS DECOUPLED FROM WHATEVER REMAINING CONVECTION THERE WAS. DUE TO
UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED.

AT 9 AM HPT... CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 35 NM OF 41.8N
36.4E. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS... 25 KT. GUSTS... 30 KT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1008 HPA.

MOVEMENT... STATIONARY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 31/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 41.8 N 36.4 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
31/1500H...DISSIPATED

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER KRUGER
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