Difference between revisions of "TD19 (2145)"

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{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Depression Nineteen
 
{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Depression Nineteen
−
|category=depression|type=Tropical Depression
+
|category=depression|type=Tropical depression
−
|local time=0500
+
|local time=1100
 
|date=July 31
 
|date=July 31
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 41.5°N 35.7°E]<br/>About 550 km (345 miles) east-southeast of Magna Carta, PopularFreedom<BR/>About 645 km (405 miles) west-southwest of Danjlgrad, New Varangia
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 41.8°N 36.4°E]
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|winds=55 km/h (35 mph)
+
|winds=45 km/h (30 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=1004 hPa
+
|pressure=1008 hPa
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|movement=Northeast at 32 km/h (20 mph)
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|movement=Stationary
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|advisory=latest}}
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|advisory=final}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
 
  4519 TCWC HPCLC
 
  4519 TCWC HPCLC
−
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (4519) ADVISORY 003
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  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (4519) FORECAST/ADVISORY 004
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU WARNING CENTRE
 
  LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU WARNING CENTRE
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  1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 31 2145
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  7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 31 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL
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  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS DISSIPATING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE
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DEPRESSION NINETEEN... AND THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN THE
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  HAS DECOUPLED FROM WHATEVER REMAINING CONVECTION THERE WAS. DUE TO
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ORGANISATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED
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  UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED.
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30-KNOT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS... AND SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL
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−
  INTENSITY. IT NOW SEEMS THAT IF THE DEPRESSION IS ABLE TO KEEP UP THIS
+
−
  BOUT OF DEEP CONVECTION... AND INCREASES IN ORGANISATION... IT IS QUITE
+
−
POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.
+
−
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE NECESSARY YET.
+
 
   
 
   
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  AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED BY
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  AT 9 AM HPT... CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 35 NM OF 41.8N
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RADAR AND QUIKSCAT IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 NORTH...
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  36.4E. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS... 25 KT. GUSTS... 30 KT.
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  LONGITUDE 35.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 550 KM... 345 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
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MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 645 KM... 405 MILES...
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WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DANJLGRAD, NEW VARANGIA.
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  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH...
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  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1008 HPA.
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WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
+
−
12 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE SYSTEM HAS AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 HPA... AND
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  MOVEMENT... STATIONARY.
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IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 KM/H... 20 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
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−
MAKE ANOTHER MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TURN BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR DANJLGRAD.
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−
+
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SO FAR... TD-NINETEEN HAS BEEN FOLLOWING OUR FORECAST TRACK PRETTY WELL.
+
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IN FACT... IT HAS BEEN 100 PERCENT. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HEAD
+
−
WESTWARD AND GET SHEARED TO DEATH BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET... AND IT IS NOW
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−
TURNING THROUGH THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
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−
NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS... SO SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL
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−
STORM BEFORE LANDFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOULD TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
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−
OR WATCHES BE NEEDED... A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY HPCOR.
+
−
OFFICIALLY... THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE... RELYING HEAVILY ON HDCW
+
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EXTP. INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO UNCHANGED... ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY
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−
BRIEFLY GAIN STORM STATUS.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
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  INITIAL TIME IS 31/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
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  INITIAL TIME IS 31/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
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   INITIAL... 41.5 N 35.7 E... 30 KT
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   INITIAL... 41.8 N 36.4 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
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31/0900H... 41.8 N 36.4 E... 30 KT
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  31/1500H...DISSIPATED
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31/1500H... 42.0 N 37.0 E... 25 KT...INLAND NEAR DANJLGRAD
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  31/2100H...DISSIPATED
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−
+
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REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... NEAR 41.5 N 35.7 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
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WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA. THE SYSTEM
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IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 KM/H.
+
 
   
 
   
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  THE NEXT ADVISORY/DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WILL BE ISSUED AT
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  THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM.
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9 AM HPT.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  FORECASTER KRUGER
 
  FORECASTER KRUGER

Latest revision as of 03:41, 19 November 2006

Latest storm information
Tropical Depression Nineteen
Tropical depression
As of: 1100 local time July 31, 2145
Location: 41.8°N 36.4°E
Maximum
winds: 		45 km/h (30 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1008 hPa
Movement: Stationary
See final advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4519 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN (4519) FORECAST/ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU WARNING CENTRE
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 31 2145

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS DISSIPATING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE
HAS DECOUPLED FROM WHATEVER REMAINING CONVECTION THERE WAS. DUE TO
UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED.

AT 9 AM HPT... CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 35 NM OF 41.8N
36.4E. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS... 25 KT. GUSTS... 30 KT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1008 HPA.

MOVEMENT... STATIONARY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 31/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 41.8 N 36.4 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
31/1500H...DISSIPATED

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER KRUGER
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