Difference between revisions of "TD07 (2145)/Past/MSHPC"
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< TD07 (2145) | Past
(→Advisory 20) |
(→Advisory 22) |
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SEASONAL TOTALS... 484 DEATHS... 1.185 BIL. LIVERPOOL POUNDS. | SEASONAL TOTALS... 484 DEATHS... 1.185 BIL. LIVERPOOL POUNDS. | ||
− | AT 3 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF | + | AT 3 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR [http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 44.6N <BR/>31.8E] ... ABOUT 160 KM... 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, |
− | + | POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KM/H OR 50 MPH... | |
− | POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE | + | |
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST | MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST | ||
AT 31 KM/H. | AT 31 KM/H. | ||
Line 912: | Line 911: | ||
FORECASTERS HUNTER/RINDLI | FORECASTERS HUNTER/RINDLI | ||
+ | ====Advisory 22==== | ||
+ | 4507 HWULC | ||
+ | ADVISORY 1 ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI | ||
+ | THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE | ||
+ | LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU | ||
+ | |||
+ | 4507 TCWC HPCLC | ||
+ | TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI (4507) FINAL ADVISORY 022 | ||
+ | [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE]] HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ||
+ | MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU | ||
+ | 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 10 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 9 2145 | ||
+ | |||
+ | YURI DISSIPATING INLAND... | ||
+ | |||
+ | MORE PRELIMINARY DAMAGE FIGURES... | ||
+ | LOX LAND ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS... TWO DEATHS... 16 MIL. L.P. | ||
+ | PEARSON CLIFFS AND SURROUNDING AREAS... 341 DEATHS... 925 MIL. L.P. | ||
+ | WORKERS POINT AND SURROUNDING AREAS... 61 DEATHS... 115 MIL. L.P. | ||
+ | TOTAL DAMAGE... 404 DEATHS... ABOUT 1 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS. | ||
+ | SEASONAL TOTALS... 565 DEATHS... 1.241 BIL. LIVERPOOL POUNDS. | ||
+ | AS THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... MORE DAMAGE FIGURES WILL BE AVAILABLE | ||
+ | IN BOTH THE MONTHLY WEATHER SUMMARY FOR MARCH AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL | ||
+ | CYCLONE REPORT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | AT 9 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR [http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 44.2N <BR/>31.6E]... ABOUT 300 KM... 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, | ||
+ | POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KM/H OR 75 MPH... | ||
+ | MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST | ||
+ | AT 19 KM/H. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ALL OF YURI IS NOW INLAND DISSIPATING OVER ROCKY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN... | ||
+ | BUT INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET... PERHAPS TOO AGRESSIVELY... AT 30 KT | ||
+ | ... DUE TO GUSTS TO 40 KT REPORTED. | ||
+ | |||
+ | REPEATING LATEST POSITION... | ||
+ | 44.2 N, 31.6 E, INLAND ABOUT 300 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT. MAX | ||
+ | SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT... MOVING SW AT 19 KM/H. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE MSHPC UNLESS REGENERATION | ||
+ | OCCURS. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM | ||
+ | OVER LAND... AND ISSUE WARNINGS IF NEEDED. | ||
+ | |||
+ | FORECASTERS GUNTHER/KRUGER |
Latest revision as of 11:26, 1 September 2006
MSHPC
Tropical Depression Yuri
Advisory 3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI (4507) ADVISORY 003... LAST ADVISORY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 2145 THE CENTRE OF YURI WAS UNDETECTABLE ON A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS... AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE STORM HAS SHOWN LESS CONVECTION. AS SUCH... THE MSHPC WILL ASSUME THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN DISSIPATION... AND ACCORDINGLY... THIS WILL THE BE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE MSHPC... UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. TCWC LLIWO RE-STRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL STORM FROM A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 18 HOURS... AND IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SUCH AN OCCURANCE. HOWEVER... THE TWO KEY MODELS FOLLOWED BY THE MSHPC, THE AFLE MODEL AND THE UHWF... BOTH SUGGEST ONLY MINIMAL RESTRENGTHENING. THEREFORE... IF NECESSARY... ADVISORIES WILL BE RESUMED. TCWC LLIWO'S ADVISORY AT 1900H LST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KM/H... 32 KT. THE LATEST DVORAK READINGS SUGGEST A T-NUMBER OF ROUGHLY 2.0... AND THE UHWF MODEL SUGGESTS A CURRENT INTENSITY... AS OF 1600H PAX... OF 33 KT. AS SUCH... THE MSHPC WILL SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS FINAL ADVISORY AT 30 KT. YURI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER BEFORE SOME BRIEF RESTRENGTHENING... AS LAID OUT ABOVE. AS OF 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 4... TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01... LOCATED 245 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL. AS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KNOTS... 55 KM/H... 35 MPH... YURI MOVING NORTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 8 KM/H... MIN SLP 1004 HPA... 75.30 CMHG OR 29.65 INHG. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK... TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI IS EXPECTED TO MISS LOX LAND ISLAND. AS SSTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND RANGE FROM 27 - 28 DEG C... IT SEEMS AS THOUGH YURI MAY UNDERGO SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING... ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT CALL FOR IT. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... INITIAL... 245 S SCHIMPOL... 30 KT...DISSIPATING 6 HOURS... 225 SSE SCHIMPOL... 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12 HOURS... 190 SE SCHIMPOL... 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24 HOURS... 200 E SCHIMPOL... 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 36 HOURS... DISSIPATED THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM... UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. TCWC LLIWO ADVISORIES ON ALPHA.01 ARE BEING ISSUED... AND THE NEXT TCWC LLIWO ADVISORY IS DUE AT 12:30 AM HPT. FORECASTER CALTS
Tropical Storm Yuri
Advisory 1
TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 7:45 AM PAX... 9:45 AM HPT... 10:15 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 2145 RECENT ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS FULL TROPICALITY OF GALE CENTRE 87NE.INVEST... OR TCWC LLIWO ALPHA.01... AND THEREFORE THE MSHPC IS ISSUING THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATEMENT... INDICATING FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM... TROPICAL STORM YURI. AS OF 10:15 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 4... TROPICAL STORM YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01... LOCATED 290 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL... AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED... FROM A BUOY READING... TO BE 45 KT... THIS VALUE DOES NOT COUNT TOWARDS YURI'S ... OR THE SEASON'S... ACE VALUE. 45 KT... 80 KM/H OR 50 MPH... MOVING NORTH AT ROUGHLY 3 KM/H... MIN SLP 1000 HPA... 75.00 CMHG OR 29.53 INHG. NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM YURI... ALPHA.01... FROM THE MSHPC AT 3 PM HPT... WITH A TCWC LLIWO ADVISORY AT 12:30 PM HPT. FORECASTER CALTS
Advisory 2
TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 2145 TCWC LLIWO HAS WEAKENED ALPHA.01 TO A 35-KT CYCLONE... AND BASED ON THIS... DVORAK ANALYSIS... SATELLITE DATA... AND A HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT THAT REPORTED 42-KT WINDS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR ALPHA.01... ALSO KNOWN OFFICIALLY AS TROPICAL STORM YURI... IS SET AT 40 KNOTS FOR THIS ADDVISORY. AS OF 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 4... TROPICAL STORM YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01... LOCATED 270 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL. AS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KNOTS... 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... YURI MOVING NORTH AT ROUGHLY 3-4 KM/H... MIN SLP 1000 HPA... 75.00 CMHG OR 29.53 INHG. TROPICAL STORM YURI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... AND WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT LOX LAND ISLAND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... RATHER... A REMNANT LOW... WHICH TCWC LLIWO HAS BEEN ADVISED TO WARN ON UNTIL LANDFALL. THERE IS NO OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST BEING RELEASED FOR THIS STORM AT THIS POINT. NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM YURI... ALPHA.01... FROM THE MSHPC AT 9 PM HPT... WITH A TCWC LLIWO ADVISORY AT 6:30 PM HPT. FORECASTER CALTS
Advisory 4
TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) ADVISORY 004... SPECIAL ADVISORY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 5 2145 IT APPEARS THAT YURI NEVER BEGAN DISSIPATING... AND WITH WORD AT AROUND 0030H LOCAL TIME FROM TCWC LLIWO THAT YURI HAD REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AND CONFIRMATION FROM A RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER READING OF T3.0... ADVISORIES ARE RESUMED. THIS ADVISORY DOES NOT COUNT TOWARDS THE ACE VALUE OF YURI. A NOTICE FROM THE UHWF CAME IN AT 0844H HPT... WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER READING OF T3.0... AND THE AFLE MODEL FORECASTS A 50-KT TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THREE HOURS. AS SUCH... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS. TCWC LLIWO STRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM INTO A HURRICANE FROM A TROPICAL STORM... WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. THE TWO MODELS WHICH THE MSHPC USUALLY FOLLOW... THE AFLE AND UHWF... HAVE BOTH BEEN VERY POOR IN FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM... BUT BOTH AGREE UPON A FORECAST OF A 70-KNOT HURRICANE IN 18 HOURS. THIS... COUPLED WITH TCWC LLIWO'S FORECAST OF A 75-KNOT HURRICANE BY 0700H LST TOMORROW... MEANS THAT THE OFFICIAL MSHPC FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS OF 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 5... TROPICAL STORM YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01... LOCATED 185 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL. AS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KNOTS... 85 KM/H... 50 MPH... YURI MOVING NORTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 6 KM/H... WITH FURTHER SLOWING DOWN IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED... MEANING THAT THE CENTRE OF YURI WILL REMAIN OVER 28-30 DEG C SSTS FOR QUITE A WHILE... ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AT THIS TIME IS 1000 HPA... 75.00 CMHG OR 29.52 INHG. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK... TROPICAL STORM YURI IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM... IF IT DOES AFFECT ANY LAND AT ALL. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... INITIAL... 185 ESE SCHIMPOL... 45 KT 3 HOURS... 170 E SCHIMPOL... 50 KT 6 HOURS... 185 E SCHIMPOL... 55 KT 12 HOURS... 200 NE SCHIMPOL... 60 KT 24 HOURS... 240 NE SCHIMPOL... 75 KT...CAT 1 36 HOURS... 300 NNE SCHIMPOL... 95 KT...CAT 2 THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM YURI FROM THE MSHPC WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. TCWC LLIWO ADVISORIES ON ALPHA.01 ARE BEING ISSUED... AND THE NEXT TCWC LLIWO ADVISORY IS DUE AT 12:30 PM HPT. FORECASTER GUNTHER
Discussion 1 and Advisory 5
TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) FORECAST/ADVISORY DISCUSSION 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 5 2145 INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 55 KT AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION BETWEEN THE FORECASTERS... AS DVORAK RETURNS HAVE RANGED FROM T3.0 TO T4.5... IT WAS DECIDED THAT YURI WAS NOT YET A HURRICANE AS IT SHOWED NO CLEAR SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN EYE... LIMITING THE INTENSITY TO BELOW 65 KT. THEREFORE... AS PER TCWC LLIWO'S ADVISORY FROM TWO AND A HALF HOURS AGO... THE MSHPC HAS SETTLED ON AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT... MAKING YURI AN INTENSE TROPICAL STORM ON TCWC LLIWO'S RANKING SYSTEM... OR A VERY POWERFUL HIGH- END TROPICAL STORM ON THE MSHPC'S. THE TWO MODELS WHICH THE MSHPC USUALLY FOLLOW... THE AFLE AND UHWF... HAVE BOTH BEEN VERY POOR IN FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM... BUT BOTH MODELS... AS WELL AS THE HDCW MODEL... FROM THE HEARTLAND DATA COLLECTION CENTRE FOR WEATHER REPORTS (HDCW) BASED ON HPD 26 AND RUN BY THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE ... ALL FORECAST AN 80-KT HURRICANE IN 18 HOURS. WITH THIS... THE MSHPC EXPECTS THAT YURI WILL REACH HURRRICANE STRENGTH IN 6-12 HOURS. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... INITIAL... 190 E SCHIMPOL... 55 KT 6 HOURS... 200 NE SCHIMPOL... 60 KT 12 HOURS... 230 NE SCHIMPOL... 70 KT...CAT 1 24 HOURS... 265 NNE SCHIMPOL... 85 KT...CAT 2 36 HOURS... 360 NNE SCHIMPOL...100 KT...CAT 3 FORECASTER RINDLI
TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) ADVISORY 005 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 5 2145 AT 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL STORM YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01... LOCATED 190 KM EAST OF SCHIMPOL. AS FORECAST/ADVISORY DISCUSSION... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KNOTS... 100 KM/H... 65 MPH... YURI MOVING NORTHEAST VERY SLOWLY... MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AT THIS TIME IS 990 HPA... 74.25 CMHG OR 29.23 INHG. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND. HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAME STRETCH OF COASTLINE... AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... INCLUDING BORLEAI DEFENSE POST. WIND RADII... 34 KT... NE QUADRANT...170 KM NW QUADRANT...210 KM SE QUADRANT...185 KM SW QUADRANT...235 KM 50 KT... NE QUADRANT...40 KM NW QUADRANT...55 KM SE QUADRAMT...35 KM SW QUADRANT...45 KM 64 KT... NO REPORTS THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM YURI FROM THE MSHPC WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT. TCWC LLIWO ADVISORIES ON ALPHA.01 ARE BEING ISSUED... AND THE NEXT TCWC LLIWO ADVISORY IS DUE AT 6:30 PM HPT. FORECASTER RINDLI
Hurricane Yuri
Advisory 6
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 006...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 5 2145 CORRECTED 1:05 AM LST MAR 6 TO INDICATE TIME OF RELEASE OF NEXT ADVISORY TCWC LLIWO'S ADVISORY FROM TWO AND A HALF HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT YURI WAS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE... AND SURE ENOUGH THE HDCW HAS INFORMED THE MSHPC OF TWO DVORAK READINGS... FROM 1944H LST AND 2113H LST ... OF T4.5 AND MORE RECENTLY T4.0... AS WELL AS A REPORT OF AN 80-KNOT WIND GUST FROM A BUOY NORTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTRE. AS SUCH... THE HDCW'S REPORTS WILL BE USED IN JUSTIFYING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS... MAKING YURI A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. AT 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME HURRICANE YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01... LOCATED 205 KM OR 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL. AS PER ABOVE... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... 75 MPH... MAKING YURI A MINIMAL CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. YURI IS MOVING NORTHEAST... 5 KM/H MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AT THIS TIME IS 984 HPA... 73.80 CMHG OR 29.06 INHG. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND. HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME STRETCH OF COASTLINE... AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... INCLUDING BORLEAI DEFENSE POST. THE AFLE MODEL TAKES YURI TO THE NORTH AND LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN REGION COAST... THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE AFLE DOES HOWEVER BRING YURI TO THE NORTHEAST FIRST... AND PEAKS IT AT 85 KNOTS... CATEGORY TWO... IN 18 HOURS... AS PER THE PREVIOUS MSHPC FORECAST. THE UHWF SENDS THIS STORM INTO NO-MAN'S LAND MISSING BOTH THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM... ABSORBING THE NEWLY-REGENERATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABADDON ALONG THE WAY... WHICH IS WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW. THE HDCW... WHICH EXTRAPOLATES A FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN SIX MODELS... PEAKS YURI AT 140 KNOTS NOT FAR WEST OFF THE COAST OF THE VARANGIAN REGION OF VLADIMIR-NIEMETZ IN 120 HOURS... AND THIS WILL ALSO BE WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW IN TERMS OF STRENGTH... WHICH WOULD MAKE YURI A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. YURI IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT IN FORWARD SPEED... SPEED PEAKING AT AROUND 45-50 KM/H IN ABOUT 72-96 HOURS TIME. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... INITIAL... 205 ENE SCHIMPOL... 65 KT 6 HOURS... 245 ENE SCHIMPOL... 70 KT 12 HOURS... 400 ENE SCHIMPOL... 80 KT 24 HOURS... 510 NNE SCHIMPOL... 90 KT 36 HOURS... 660 NNE SCHIMPOL...100 KT 48 HOURS... 980 W PEARSON CLIFFS...110 KT 72 HOURS... 880 W PEARSON CLIFFS...125 KT...ABSORBING 4506 ABADDON 96 HOURS... 990 NE PEARSON CLIFFS...135 KT...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE 120 HOURS... 800 W VL-NMETZ COAST...140 KT BEYOND... WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND AVOID LAND...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 168 HOURS. CORRECTION... ADDING NEXT ADVISORY TIME THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER RINDLI
Advisory 7
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 007... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 6 2145 CORRECTED TO REPEAT CURRENT STATUS IN SUMMARY. HDCW REPORTED A DVORAK ESTIMATION OF T4.5 AT 0224 LST... AND T5.0 AT 0310 LST. AFLE AND UHWF BOTH FORECAST STRENGTHENING TO AN 85-KNOT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE IN THREE HOURS... THE UHWF FORECAST CAME IN AT 0323 LST... THEREFORE RULING OUT THE T5.0 READING... WHICH IS JUSTIFIED BY THE CONSTRAINTS OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 80 KT MAKING YURI A HIGH-END CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ON YURI'S FORECAST TRACK... YURI MAY TOP 160 KT SHORTLY BEFORE TURNING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 144 HOURS. AT 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME HURRICANE YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01... LOCATED 240 KM OR 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL. AS PER ABOVE... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KNOTS... 150 KM/H... 95 MPH... MAKING YURI A HIGH-END CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. YURI IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KM/H... WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AT THIS TIME IS 976 HPA... 73.20 CMHG OR 28.82 INHG. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND... BUT THE HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME STRETCH OF COASTLINE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... INCLUDING BORLEAI DEFENSE POST... REMAIN IN EFFECT... BUT WILL MOST PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED SOON. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 285 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 60 KM. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOX LAND ISLAND WILL BE DISCONTINUED SOON. THE AFLE MODEL NO LONGER TAKES YURI TO THE NORTH AND LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN REGION COAST AND INSTEAD NOW SENDS IT OUT INTO THE GREAT ICE SEA... SSTS UNDER 20 C... TO DIE. THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE UHWF SENDS THIS STORM INTO NO-MAN'S LAND MISSING BOTH THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM... NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUSLY EXCEPT TO NO LONGER SHOW ABSORPTION OF ABADDON... WHILE THE HDCW... WHICH EXTRAPOLATES A FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN SIX MODELS... NOW TURNS YURI TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY SOONER TO ACCOMODATE THE AFLE... AND PEAKS YURI AT 150 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A SLIGHT UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOMODATE THE NEW UHWF EXTRAPOLATION FORECAST... BUT WILL PEAK YURI AT 155 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER STRENGTHENING AFTER... BEFORE IT HITS 18 DEG C SSTS AS IT TURNS NORTH AND RAPIDLY LOSES STEAM. YURI'S CURRENT TRACK IS 051/08... BUT WILL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H. ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PEARSON CLIFFS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... INITIAL... 240 ENE SCHIMPOL... 80 KT...CAT 1 6 HOURS... 415 ENE SCHIMPOL... 90 KT...CAT 2 12 HOURS... 510 ENE SCHIMPOL...105 KT...CAT 3 24 HOURS... 700 NNE SCHIMPOL...115 KT...CAT 4 36 HOURS... 700 WSW PEARSON CLIFFS...125 KT...CAT 4 48 HOURS... 400 N PEARSON CLIFFS...135 KT...CAT 5 72 HOURS... 700 NNE PEARSON CLIFFS...140 KT 96 HOURS...1000 NE PEARSON CLIFFS...155 KT 120 HOURS...1000 W BURZEN...155 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BEYOND...YURI MAY TOP OFF AT 160 KT IN 144 HOURS BEFORE EXTRATROPICALITY SETS IN... AND AS IT TURNS EXTRATROPICAL IT SHOULD HIT SSTS COLDER THAN 18 DEG C... WEAKENING IT TO A 65-KT STORM BY 168 HOURS. REPEATING THE 3:30 AM POSITION... 240 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 HPA. YURI IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS AT 15 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 AM HPT. FORECASTER RINDLI
Advisory 8
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 008 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 9 AM HPT... 7 AM PAX... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 6 2145 ...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES DISCONTINUED... HDCW REPORTED T5.0 DVORAK READING AT 0857H LST. JUSTIFICATION FOR RAISING INITIAL INTENSITY TO 90 KNOTS. AT 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME HURRICANE YURI IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 KM OR 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 90 KNOTS ... 165 KM/H... 105 MPH... MAKING YURI A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. YURI IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KM/H... WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 HPA... 72.83 CMHG OR 28.67 INHG. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 235 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 80 KM. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR POPULARFREEDOM. THE AFLE MODEL IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS DISCUSSION ADVISORY AS IT PEAKED YURI AT 85 KNOTS AND REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN IT ANY FURTHER. THE UHWF HAS REVISED ITS MODEL FORECAST DOWNWARDS... TURNING YURI TO THE NORTH MUCH EARLIER... PEAKING IT AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH 120 KNOT WINDS. THE HDCW'S EXTRAPOLATED MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO PEAK YURI AT 160 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A MODIFICATION OF THE PREVIOUS... TO CHANGE THE PEAK STRENGTH OF YURI... WHICH THE MSHPC WILL SET AT 140 KNOTS... A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 06/0900 HPT 06/0900H... 410 ENE SCHIMPOL... 90 KT...CAT 2 06/1500H... 510 ENE SCHIMPOL...100 KT...CAT 3 07/0300H... 700 NNE SCHIMPOL...110 KT 07/1500H... 700 WSW PEARSON CLIFFS...120 KT...CAT 4 08/0300H... 400 N PEARSON CLIFFS...130 KT 09/0300H... 700 NNE PEARSON CLIFFS...130 KT 10/0300H...1000 NE PEARSON CLIFFS...140 KT...CAT 5 11/0300H...1000 W BURZEN...130 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 9:30 AM POSITION... 410 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 165 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 HPA. YURI IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AT 16 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 9
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 009 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 6 2145 I WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE THIS AS SHORT AND SUCCINT AS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE ON OUR HANDS. YURI IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. AT 3 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI WAS LOCATED BY A 1451H LST QUIKSCAT PASS TO BE ABOUT 515 KM... 320 MILES... EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H OR 115 MPH... MAKING YURI A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. YURI HAS A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 966 HPA... 72.45 CM HG... 28.52 IN HG... AND IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS AT 15 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 305 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 105 KM. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR POPULARFREEDOM. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK... ALL I CAN HOPE FOR IS THAT WE ARE HORRIBLY WRONG AND THIS WILL DISSIPATE SOON... AS THE AFLE NOW SHOWS A CATEGORY FIVE LANDFALL NEAR BURZEN... WHICH WOULD BE DEVASTATING. THE OFFICIAL TRACK DOES HOWEVER REVISE ITS FORECAST PEAK... UPWARDS... TO 145KT. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 06/1500 HPT INITIAL... 515 ENE SCHIMPOL...100 KT...CAT 3 06/2100H... 610 NE SCHIMPOL...105 KT 07/0300H... 700 NNE SCHIMPOL...110 KT 07/1500H... 700 WSW PEARSON CLIFFS...120 KT...CAT 4 08/0300H... 400 N PEARSON CLIFFS...135 KT 09/0300H... 700 NNE PEARSON CLIFFS...140 KT...CAT 5 10/0300H...1000 NE PEARSON CLIFFS...145 KT 11/0300H...1000 W BURZEN...130 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 3:30 PM POSITION... 515 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 HPA. YURI IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS AT 15 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 10
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 010 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 6 2145 HURRICANE YURI'S STRENGTHENING HAS STALLED... AND WE MAY ACTUALLY HAVE SEEN THE PEAK OF THIS CYCLONE. HOWEVER... DUE TO THE UNPREDICABILITY OF THIS STORM ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR POPULARFREEDOM... FROM THE PEARSON MOUNTAINS NORTH TO PEARSON CLIFFS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS. HDCW AND MODELS HAVE ALL SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED THEIR FORECASTS TO ACCOMODATE AN UNEXPECTED BUILD-UP OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRIVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORWARD FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF YURI. WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED... AND YURI MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN. A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED... AND EVEN CATEGORY FOUR MAY BE A STRETCH AT THIS POINT. A PRESSURE READING FROM 1806H LST WAS 958 HECTOPASCALS... HOWEVER... A READING AT 2113H SHOWED NO CHANGE. YURI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN IN FORWARD SPEED... HOWEVER WITH THE UNPREDICABILITY SO FAR OF THIS SYSTEM... I CANNOT SAY FOR SURE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100KT FROM THE 2113H RECON REPORT. AT 9 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 615 KM... 385 MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H OR 115 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 HPA... 28.29 IN HG... YURI IS MOVING EASTWARDS AT 15 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 365 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 145 KM. REPEAT... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN RELEASED FOR A PART OF THE POPULARFREEDOM COAST. WITH THE DRASTIC CHANGES IN CONDITIONS... THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOW PEAK YURI AT 105 KT... WITH ONLY LITTLE STRENGTHENING EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE STARTS TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPECTED SLOWING DOWN OF YURI. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 06/2100 HPT INITIAL... 615 NE SCHIMPOL...100 KT...CAT 3 07/0300H... 920 W PEARSON CLIFFS...105 KT 07/0900H... 825 W PEARSON CLIFFS... 95 KT...CAT 2 07/2100H... 665 WSW PEARSON CLIFFS... 85 KT 08/0900H... 490 W PEARSON CLIFFS... 65 KT...CAT 1...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 09/2100H... 210 W PEARSON CLIFFS... 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 10/0300H... 180 NNW PEARSON CLIFFS... 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 9:30 PM POSITION... 615 KM NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EASTWARDS AT 15 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER GUNTHER
Advisory 11
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 011...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 7 2145 CORRECTED CURRENT TIME IN SUMMARY PARAGRAPH HURRICANE YURI HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER... IT IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OF WINDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR POPULARFREEDOM... FROM THE PEARSON MOUNTAINS NORTH TO PEARSON CLIFFS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT FROM REPORTS FROM VARIOUS SOURCES... MOST IMPORTANTLY A RECENT RECON REPORT WHICH ALSO FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 960 HECTOPASCALS. YURI'S TRACK REMAINS AS EXPECTED. AT 3 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 920 KM... 575 MI WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H OR 115 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 HPA... YURI REMAINS ON AN EASTWARD TRACK AT 16 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 365 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 145 KM. REPEAT... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR A PART OF THE POPULARFREEDOM COAST. YURI IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD... AND THE WEAKENING WILL TAKE LONGER, GIVEN YURI'S RECENT IMAGERY... YURI IS PROBABLY AN ANNULAR HURRICANE. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 07/0300 HPT INITIAL... 920 W PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT 07/0900H... 825 W PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT 07/2100H... 665 WSW PEARSON CLIFFS... 95 KT...CAT 2 08/0900H... 490 W PEARSON CLIFFS... 95 KT 09/2100H... 210 W PEARSON CLIFFS... 90 KT 10/0300H... 180 NNW PEARSON CLIFFS... 90 KT REPEATING THE 3:30 AM POSITION... 920 KM WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EASTWARDS AT 16 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 AM HPT. FORECASTER GUNTHER
Advisory 12
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 012 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 7 2145 HURRICANE YURI REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... YURI HAS TAKEN ON THE LOOK OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR POPULARFREEDOM FROM THE LOYALTY/PEARSON MTN. RANGE SEPERATOR NORTHWARDS TO PEARSON CLIFFS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE PEARSON MOUNTAINS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT FROM REPORTS FROM VARIOUS SOURCES... AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT YURI WILL WEAKEN ANY TIME SOON. A RECENT RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 959 HPA. AT 9 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 825 KM... 515 MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H OR 115 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 959 HPA... YURI HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT TURN TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW MOVING AT 13 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 425 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 205 KM. REPEAT... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR A PART OF THE POPULARFREEDOM COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN YURI AT OR NEAR CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 07/0900 HPT INITIAL... 825 W PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT 07/2100H... 665 WSW PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT 08/0900H... 505 W PEARSON CLIFFS... 95 KT...CAT 2 09/2100H... 230 W PEARSON CLIFFS... 95 KT 10/0300H... 195 NNW PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT...CAT 3 REPEATING THE 9:30 AM POSITION... 825 KM WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AT 13 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTER GUNTHER
Advisory 13
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 013 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 7 2145 HURRICANE YURI STILL REFUSES TO WEAKEN. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVIOUSLY HINDERING YURI'S MOVEMENT HAS BROKEN AND YURI IS NOW SPEEDING UP... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 43 KM/H. GIVEN THIS... YURI IS... ONCE AGAIN... FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR POPULARFREEDOM FROM THE LOYALTY/ PEARSON MTN. RANGE SEPERATOR NORTHWARDS TO PEARSON CLIFFS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA INSIDE 24 HOURS. DESPITE A RECENT T5.7 DVORAK READING FROM HDCW... AND A T6.0 READING FROM UHWF... INITIAL INTENSITY IS... FOR NOW... HELD AT 100 KT. AT 3 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45.4N 27.6E... ABOUT 665 KM... 415 MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H OR 115 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 957 HPA... YURI IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 43 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 445 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 230 KM. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... PEARSON CLIFFS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING MINIMAL HURRICANE CONDITIONS VERY SOON. EMERGENCY HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WITH WARM WATERS AWAITING IT... HURRICANE YURI IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 07/1500 HPT INITIAL... 665 WSW PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT 07/2100H... 405 W PEARSON CLIFFS...110 KT 08/0300H... 285 N PEARSON CLIFFS...115 KT...CAT 4 08/1500H... 600 NE PEARSON CLIFFS...120 KT 09/0300H... 570 NNE WORKERS POINT...130 KT 09/1500H... 575 NNE WORKERS POINT...135 KT 10/0300H... 565 NNE WORKERS POINT...140 KT...CAT 5 IN THE LONG RUN... YURI IS EXPECTED TO STALL ABOUT 570 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM... ALL THE WHILE STRENGTHENING... WHILE MAKING AND ANTI-CLOCKWISE LOOP BEFORE HEADING SOUTH. REPEATING THE 3:30 PM POSITION... NEAR 45.4N 27.6E... 665 KM WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EAST- NORTHEASTWARDS AT 43 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTER RINDLI
Update
HURRICANE YURI (4507) UPDATE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND 10 PM PAX MAR 7 2145... 12 AM HPT... 1 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 8 2145 TCWC MSHPC IS RELINQUISHING JURISDICTION OF WARNING ON SYSTEM 4507 HURRICANE YURI... TO THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HEADQUARTERS IN FOLENISA, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... THE MSHPC'S DESIGNATED BACKUP ADVISORY CENTRE. ALL FURTHER ADVISORIES, UPDATES, FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS WILL BE RELEASED BY MET SERV HQ. THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY SCHEDULED FOR NOW WILL BE RELEASED BY MET SERV HQ. FORECASTER CALTS
Advisory 19
4507 TCWC HPCLC HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 019...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 10 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 8 2145 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY IN FORECAST YURI MAINTAINS STRENGTH... THE MET SERVICE HQ IN FOLENISA HAS TRANSFERRED WARNING JURISDICTION OVER YURI BACK TO THE MSHPC. FUTHER ADVISORIES WILL BE RELEASED BY THE MSHPC... EITHER FROM THE OREAN HEADQUARTERS UNDER REGIONAL BULLETIN HEADER 4507 TCWC HPCOR OR FROM THE LUNAR CITY SATELLITE BUREAU UNDER HEADER 4507 TCWC HPCLC. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST... FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... EASTWARDS FOR 120 KM. FURTHER EAST... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 60 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT EAST TO WORKERS POINT... AS WELL AS WELL AS FOR 20 KM SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST. WARNING... EMERGENCY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REINSTATED FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... WEST TO PEARSON CLIFFS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... ONCE AGAIN... ARE BEING FELT IN PEARSON CLIFFS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. FURTHER REPORTS FROM PEARSON CLIFFS KEEP DAMAGE FIGURES AT UNDER ONE BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS... PEARSON CLIFFS MAY HAVE GOT OFF LUCKY. DEATH TOLL... NOW STANDS AT 255 FROM YURI IN PEARSON CLIFFS... TWO DEATHS WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS OFFSHORE... AND THREE IN THE NOLAN SOUND... BRINGING THE DEATH TOLL FROM YURI TO 260... WHICH IN TURN RAISES THE SEASONAL DEATH TOLL TO 422. HALT ALL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AT ONCE... AND TAKE IMMEDIATE SHELTER! ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RETAINED FROM THE SECOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY... 80 KT... FROM A COMBINATION OF T-NUMBERS FROM HDCW AND UHWF... AS WELL AS SHIP REPORTS. YURI WILL BE TRAVELLING OVER 27 DEG C WATERS WITH ONLY 10-15 KNOT SHEAR ESTIMATED... AND YURI MAY THUS REGAIN CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL... LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS. ALL EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY. AT 9 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 46.1N 31.2E ... ABOUT 260 KM... 160 MILES... NORTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 305 KM... 190 MILES... EAST-NORTHEAST OF PEARSON CLIFFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 KM/H OR 95 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 974 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 54 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN WORKERS POINT. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FELT IN PEARSON CLIFFS AS WELL... EMERGENCY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REINSTATED. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 KM FROM THE CENTRE... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 KM. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 08/2100 HPT INITIAL... 46.1 N 31.2 E... 80 KT 09/0000H... 45.5 N 31.6 E... 80 KT 09/0300H... 44.6 N 31.8 E... 50 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 09/0900H... DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... NEAR 46.1N 31.2E... 260 KM NORTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 HPA. YURI IS MOVING SE AT 54 KM/H. THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED FOR 12 AM HPT. FORECASTERS HUNTER/RINDLI
Advisory 19A
4507 TCWC HPCLC HURRICANE YURI (4507) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 019A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 10 PM PAX MAR 8... 12 AM HPT... 1 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 9 2145 YURI MAINTAINS STRENGTH... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT WESTWARDS TO PEARSON CLIFFS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST... FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... EASTWARDS FOR 120 KM. FURTHER EAST... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 60 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT EAST TO WORKERS POINT... AS WELL AS WELL AS FOR 20 KM SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST. DAMAGE WAS LIMITED IN PEARSON CLIFFS... WITH NO REAL FLOODING TO SPEAK OF. INITIAL ESTIMATES STILL HOVER AROUND THE 1 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUND MARK. DEATH TOLL... NEW REPORTS OF UP TO 45 DEATHS IN A SUBURB OF PEARSON CLIFFS... BRINGING THE DEATH TOLL FROM YURI TO 305... AND THE TOTAL TOLL FROM THE SEASON TO 467. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY INTENSITY... 80 KT... FROM COMBINATION OF FACTORS. LANDFALL WITHIN THREE HOURS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! AT 12 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45.5N 31.6E ... ABOUT 105 KM... 65 MILES... NORTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 KM/H OR 95 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 977 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 KM FROM THE CENTRE... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 KM. MODEL FORECASTS... AFLE MODEL TAKES THIS STORM BACK OUT INTO OPEN WATER... THE ONLY COMPUTER MODEL TO DO SO. THE THTC... HDCW EXTP... UHWF... WHICH ARE THE THREE THIS FORECAST WILL MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW... TAKE THIS STORM FURTHER INLAND TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTHEAST OF LOCKE HARBOR. INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY... IN THREE HOURS THE CENTRE OF YURI WOULD HAVE MADE LANDFALL... BUT MOST OF ITS STRONGER WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE... AND THUS WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE MOUNTAINS TO ITS WEST. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM DOES MOVE FURTHER INLAND... AND ASSUMING A HIGH-END CATEGORY ONE LANDFALL... INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 04H LST IS SET AT 45 KT. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 09/0000 HPT INITIAL... 45.5 N 31.6 E... 80 KT 09/0300H... 44.6 N 31.8 E... 45 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 09/0900H... DISSIPATED THE 1 AM LOCAL TIME POSITION... 105 KM NORTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT. HURRICANE WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KM/H... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/H. LANDFALL WITHIN THREE HOURS. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT LANDFALL... FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED WITH A FORECAST... UNLESS THE STORM HEADS BACK OUT TO WATER. FORECASTERS HUNTER/RINDLI
Advisory 20
4507 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE YURI (4507) SPECIAL ADVISORY 020 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 11:35 PM PAX MAR 8... 1:35 AM HPT... 2:35 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 9 2145 YURI MAKES LANDFALL A SECOND TIME... LANDFALL REPORTED AT ABOUT 0210H LST... 2310H PAX. LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 65-70 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET... MAYBE AGGRESIVELY... AT 65 KT... KEEPING YURI AS A HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST... FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... EASTWARDS FOR 120 KM. FURTHER EAST... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 60 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT EAST TO WORKERS POINT... AS WELL AS WELL AS FOR 20 KM SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AT THE NEXT ADVISORY. DAMAGE WAS LIMITED IN PEARSON CLIFFS... WITH NO REAL FLOODING TO SPEAK OF. INITIAL ESTIMATES STILL HOVER AROUND THE 1 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUND MARK. DEATH TOLL... REMAINS 305 FOR NOW. AT 1:35 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45.1N 31.8E... NEAR OR OVER WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KM/H OR 75 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 27 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 KM FROM THE CENTRE... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 KM. MOST OF YURI'S WINDFIELD IS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS, YURI MAY STILL BE RECORDING NEAR-HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES EVEN WHILE OVERLAND. ALL COMPUTER MODELS NOW AGREE ON DISSIPATION INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT SIX TO NINE HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTERS HUNTER/RINDLI
Advisory 21
4507 TCWC HPCOR TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) ADVISORY 021 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 4 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 9 2145 YURI NOW INLAND... DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. ALL COASTAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED. MORE PRELIMINARY DAMAGE FIGURES... LOX LAND ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS... TWO DEATHS... 16 MIL. L.P. PEARSON CLIFFS AND SURROUNDING AREAS... 314 DEATHS... 925 MIL. L.P. WORKERS POINT AND SURROUNDING AREAS... SEVEN DEATHS... 60 MIL. L.P. TOTAL DAMAGE... 323 DEATHS... ABOUT 1 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS. SEASONAL TOTALS... 484 DEATHS... 1.185 BIL. LIVERPOOL POUNDS. AT 3 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 44.6N
31.8E ... ABOUT 160 KM... 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KM/H OR 50 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 31 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 KM FROM THE CENTRE. MOST OF YURI'S WINDFIELD IS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE... INCLUDING SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 55 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 45 KT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 300 MM ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 400 MM. AROUND WORKERS POINT... RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 200 MM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ISOLATED TORNADO OR TO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. REPEATING LATEST POSITION... 44.6 N, 31.8 E, INLAND ABOUT 160 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT... MOVING SW AT 30 KM/H. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM YURI FROM THE MSHPC. AN ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 AM HPT BY THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RUN JOINTLY BY THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AND KOMPA RUAN GOVERNMENTS...BASED AT MSHPC BRANCH IN LUNAR CITY. SHOULD YURI STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM THEN... THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO COUNT TO THE ACE TOTALS. FORECASTERS HUNTER/RINDLI
Advisory 22
4507 HWULC ADVISORY 1 ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU 4507 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI (4507) FINAL ADVISORY 022 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 10 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 9 2145 YURI DISSIPATING INLAND... MORE PRELIMINARY DAMAGE FIGURES... LOX LAND ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS... TWO DEATHS... 16 MIL. L.P. PEARSON CLIFFS AND SURROUNDING AREAS... 341 DEATHS... 925 MIL. L.P. WORKERS POINT AND SURROUNDING AREAS... 61 DEATHS... 115 MIL. L.P. TOTAL DAMAGE... 404 DEATHS... ABOUT 1 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS. SEASONAL TOTALS... 565 DEATHS... 1.241 BIL. LIVERPOOL POUNDS. AS THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... MORE DAMAGE FIGURES WILL BE AVAILABLE IN BOTH THE MONTHLY WEATHER SUMMARY FOR MARCH AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT. AT 9 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 44.2N
31.6E... ABOUT 300 KM... 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KM/H OR 75 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 19 KM/H. ALL OF YURI IS NOW INLAND DISSIPATING OVER ROCKY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN... BUT INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET... PERHAPS TOO AGRESSIVELY... AT 30 KT ... DUE TO GUSTS TO 40 KT REPORTED. REPEATING LATEST POSITION... 44.2 N, 31.6 E, INLAND ABOUT 300 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT... MOVING SW AT 19 KM/H. THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE MSHPC UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM OVER LAND... AND ISSUE WARNINGS IF NEEDED. FORECASTERS GUNTHER/KRUGER