Difference between revisions of "TD12 (2145)/Past"
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Revision as of 23:46, 7 September 2006
Tropical Depression Twelve
Advisory 1
4512 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (4512) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 SYSTEM NEAR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... PARQUE DE CORRACION... WESTERN EAST KOMPA RU... AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF KOMPA RU OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. TD-TWELVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS CENTRED NEAR 23.0N 38.0E... ABOUT 95 KM... 60 MILES... NORTHWEST OF LA CIUDAD ON LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL OF EAST KOMPA RU. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... GUSTING TO 40 KT... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. TD-TWELVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H ... 7 MPH. BECAUSE OF ITS GUSTS TO ABOVE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING PUT INTO PLACE. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... THE PARQUE DE CORRACION... AS WELL AS THE WESTERN COAST OF FIDELIS FROM NEW PIEZAS EAST KOMPA RU NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR CITY KOMPA RU. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT - THE UHWF EVEN BRINGS TD-TWELVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS IT INTO A 65-KT HURRICANE BY 106 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION WAS DISREGARDED IN THE FORECAST... WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON THE HDCW EXTP. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR TD-TWELVE MAY INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM WITH SHEAR... AND SO TD-TWELVE MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 1.15 MPH INITIAL TIME 11/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 23.0 N 38.0 E... 30 KT 11/0900H... 23.1 N 38.2 E... 30 KT 11/1500H... 23.6 N 38.6 E... 25 KT...INLAND PARQUE DE CORRACION 12/0300H... 24.4 N 39.3 E... 25 KT...INLAND EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND 12/1500H...INLAND DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 AM LOCATION... 23.0N 38.2E 95 KM NORTHWEST OF LA CIUDAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. MOVEMENT NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.