Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"

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{| class="infobox" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="background:transparent;text-align:center; font-size:95%; width:12.6em; float:right;"
+
{{Storm active2|name=Extra-tropical Storm Griel
|+ colspan="7" nowrap="nowrap"| <small>Current warnings and watches</small>
+
|category=storm|type=Extratropical storm
|-
+
|local time=1200
|http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/9779/watchwarnnstd4510pm1.png
+
|date=June 15
|}
+
{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel
+
|category=cat4|type=Category 4 major hurricane
+
|local time=0800
+
|date=June 13
+
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.8&deg;S 4.6&deg;E]<br/>About 2000 km (1250 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 12.0&deg;S 4.0°W]<br/>About 450 km (280 miles) south-southeast of [[Vassfforcia la Serenísima]], [[Vassfforcia]]
|winds=230 km/h (145 mph)
+
|winds=100 km/h (65 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
|pressure=937 hPa
+
|pressure=970 hPa
|movement=West at 24 km/h (15 mph)
+
|movement=NNW at 81 km/h (50 mph)
|advisory=latest}}
+
|advisory=final}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
 
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
 
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
  HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 011
+
  TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) FINAL ADVISORY 020
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
  7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145
+
  1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 12 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145
 
   
 
   
  GRIEL CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...
+
  GRIEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ALL REMAINING WARNINGS AND
 +
WATCHES DISCONTINUED.
 
   
 
   
  AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM PRUBDABLIA
+
  AT 3 PM HPT... THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE GRIEL
  SOUTHWARD FOR 385 KM AS WELL AS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE OF
+
  WERE CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 SOUTH LONGITUDE 4.0 WEST... OR ABOUT
  ANIMUS ANI-01 IN THE SANXAY STRAIT.
+
450 KM... 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VASSFFORCIA CITY, VASSFFORCIA.
 +
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS 970 HPA...
 +
  AND IT HAS SUSTAINED GALES OF UP TO 110 KM/H... 65 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS
 +
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H... 50 MPH.
 
   
 
   
  AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR
+
  34-KNOT... OR STORM-FORCE... WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 350 KM...
  THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
+
  220 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES...
 +
100 MM... ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER INLAND VASSFFORCIA. CITIES AND TOWNS
 +
NEAR RIVERS SHOULD BE PREPARED IN CASE OF RIVERS FLOODING ITS BANKS.
 
   
 
   
  AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN
+
  GRIEL SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE
EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COAST.
+
  SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT.
+
AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
+
COAST OF VENERATIO VEN-01 HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
+
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH.
+
+
AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES
+
IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VEN-01 HAVE
+
BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS.
+
+
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
+
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
+
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
+
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
+
LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WATCHES
+
MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA...
+
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF
+
LIFE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT
+
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
+
HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE
+
COMPLETE.
+
+
AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH
+
LONGITUDE 4.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 2000 KM... 1250 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
+
NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
+
230 KM/H... 145 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS
+
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...
+
AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED.
+
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
+
IS 937 HPA/MBAR.
+
+
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 KM...
+
280 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH...
+
  WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 KM...
+
160 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE.
+
+
HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO
+
METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL... PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL BULLETINS FOR MORE
+
INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS OR
+
EVACUATION ORDERS.
+
+
DISCUSSION...
+
GRIEL HAS BECOME THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR THIS YEAR... SURPASSING
+
DEADLY HURRICANE YURI. NO VISIBLE SIGNS THAT THIS STRENGTHENING TREND
+
WILL BUCKLE... AND SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. INITIAL MOTION
+
IS ALMOST DUE WEST... 278/12. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... GRIEL WILL
+
MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
  INITIAL TIME IS 13/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
+
  INITIAL TIME IS 15/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
   INITIAL... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT... CAT 4
+
   INITIAL... 12.0 S 4.0 W... 55 KT...INLAND/BECOMING ABSORBED
13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT
+
  15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM
13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT <!-- 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...140 KT... CAT 5 -->
+
14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...145 KT... CAT 5 <!-- 14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...150 KT... CAT 5 -->
+
14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...155 KT <!-- 15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...145 KT -->
+
15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT... CAT 4 <!-- 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT  15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT  16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT... CAT 3 -->
+
16/0900H... 13.7 S 02.0 W... 95 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL <!-- 16/1500H... 13.6 S 02.5 W... 75 KT...VERY CLOSE TO LAND  16/2100H... 13.0 S 03.5 W... 50 KT... INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 17/0300H... 11.0 S 05.2 W... 25 KT... EXTRATROPICAL/DISSIPATING INLAND -->
+
  17/0900H...DISSIPATED OVER WATER NORTH OF VASSFORCIA LA SERENÍSIMA
+
+
REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 4.6 EAST. MAXIMUM
+
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 230 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
+
PRESSURE 937 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H.
+
+
THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT...
+
WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 12 PM HPT.
+
+
FORECASTERS RINDLI/HUNTER
+
----
+
ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR
+
INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE REGARDING HURRICANE GRIEL (4510)
+
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
+
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
+
+
INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE...
+
FOR THE GOVERNMENTS OF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... AND VASSFFORCIA... AS WELL
+
AS OTHER HEARTLAND GOVERNMENTS CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
+
HURRICANE GRIEL...
+
+
HURRICANE GRIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. ITS CURRENT PATH
+
PROJECTS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO LANDFALL NEAR, OR DIRECTLY ON
+
CIUDAD ESTADIO/PUERTO NUEVO. HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL
+
STORM WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT...
+
+
RECOMMENDED -
+
EVACUATIONS OF ALL RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AREAS
+
EVACUATIONS OF ALL RESIDENTS STAYING IN APARTMENT BUILDINGS
+
IMMEDIATE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS
+
RAISING SAFETY/SECURITY LEVEL IN THE NATION... IF APPROPRIATE
+
+
EXPECTED -
+
WINDS OF NEAR 180 KM/H SUSTAINED
+
GUSTS OF NEAR 205 KM/H
+
STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 2.5 METRES
+
HIGH TIDES
+
+
DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF STORMS, THE GOVERNMENT IS URGED
+
TO PREPARE FOR THE FOLLOWING POSSIBILITIES...
+
 
   
 
   
  WINDS OF UP TO 225 KM/H SUSTAINED
+
  REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 12.0 SOUTH 4.0 WEST. MAXIMUM
  GUSTS OF UP TO 295 KM/H SUSTAINED
+
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA.
STORM SURGES OF UP TO 8 METRES
+
  SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
  WHILE INLAND... GRIEL WILL DUMP MUCH RAIN OVER THE COUNTRY. THIS
+
  THIS WILL BE THE FINAL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER
MAY ACCUMULATE TO 500 MM (20 INCHES) IN TOTAL. GRIEL'S PROJECTED
+
  INFORMATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND THE NEW WEATHER FRONT
  INLAND TRACK AFFECTS MANY CITIES... INCLUDING THE CAPITAL OF
+
  PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL INFORMATION OR THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE'S
  VASSFFORCIA. HOWEVER... MANY OF THESE CITIES WILL SEE ONLY WINDS
+
  BULLETINS.
OF LESS THAN 65 KM/H SUSTAINED. IN ANY CASE... IT IS WORTH PREPARING
+
FOR MORE THAN EXPECTED... JUST IN CASE... ALTHOUGH NO EVACUATION
+
ORDERS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED INLAND... EXCEPT FOR TOWNS NEAR
+
  RIVERS WHICH MAY OVERFLOW.
+
 
   
 
   
  ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
+
  FORECASTER HUNTER
DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS
+
JUNE 13, 2145
+

Latest revision as of 07:01, 20 October 2006

Latest storm information
Extra-tropical Storm Griel
Extratropical storm
As of: 1200 local time June 15, 2145
Location: 12.0°S 4.0°W
About 450 km (280 miles) south-southeast of Vassfforcia la Serenísima, Vassfforcia
Maximum
winds:
100 km/h (65 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 970 hPa
Movement: NNW at 81 km/h (50 mph)
See final advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here

4510 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) FINAL ADVISORY 020
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 12 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145

GRIEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ALL REMAINING WARNINGS AND
WATCHES DISCONTINUED.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE GRIEL
WERE CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 SOUTH LONGITUDE 4.0 WEST... OR ABOUT
450 KM... 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VASSFFORCIA CITY, VASSFFORCIA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS 970 HPA...
AND IT HAS SUSTAINED GALES OF UP TO 110 KM/H... 65 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H... 50 MPH.

34-KNOT... OR STORM-FORCE... WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 350 KM... 
220 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES...
100 MM... ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER INLAND VASSFFORCIA. CITIES AND TOWNS
NEAR RIVERS SHOULD BE PREPARED IN CASE OF RIVERS FLOODING ITS BANKS.

GRIEL SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 15/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 12.0 S 4.0 W... 55 KT...INLAND/BECOMING ABSORBED
15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM

REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 12.0 SOUTH 4.0 WEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA.
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND THE NEW WEATHER FRONT
PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL INFORMATION OR THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE'S
BULLETINS.

FORECASTER HUNTER