Difference between revisions of "TD02 (2146)"

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{{Active storm|name=Tropical Storm Mordrel
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  TCAD2 HPCOR 060345
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|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
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  TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 008
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|time=1500 HPT
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|date=May 4
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|year=2146
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|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 4.5°N 25.6°W]<br/>About 1870 km (1170 mi) west of Feronia, Herconia
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|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
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|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=1000 hPa
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|movement=North-northeast at 20 kt}}
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----
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  TCAD2 HPCOR 041535
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  TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 002
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  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
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  3 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME
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  3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 10 PM MAY 5 LOCAL TIME
 
   
 
   
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  RECONNAISSANCE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... BUT EARLY REPORTS SUGGEST
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  ...MORDREL WEAKENING FAST... BARELY A TROPICAL STORM AS IT STARTS TO BECOME
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THAT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN ATTAINED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
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  ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW... THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.
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CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UP... T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... AND T3.0 FROM HDCW.
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  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE WITH DEEP
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CONVECTION FLARING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS UPPED TO 35 KT... MAKING TD-TWO
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TROPICAL STORM MORDREL. INITIAL MOTION IS 025/20.
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  THE FIRST NAME ON THE CARITAS LIST... ARIANA... WILL BE ASSIGNED TO THIS SYSTEM
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  TROPICAL STORM MORDREL HAS SPED UP... IT IS STILL TROPICAL BUT WILL BE ABSORBED
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  IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM.
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BY THE LARGER LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEM... STILL WITH SOME
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  TROPICAL MOISTURE... WILL THEN MOVE NORTH AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER
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SYSTEM OVER LOS PAISES LEJANOS.
 
   
 
   
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  AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
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  SATELLITE FIXES HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY AND NOW RANGE FROM T1.5/25 KTS TO T2.5/35 KTS.
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TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST... OR ABOUT 1870 KM...
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BASED ON CONTINUITY THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE...
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  1170 MILES... WEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
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  BUT THIS COULD BE RATHER GENEROUS GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF MORDREL ON VISIBLE
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  NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT
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  SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETELY BROKEN
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  1000 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 36 KM/H... 23 MPH.
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  DOWN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY DUE TO ITS SUDDEN FORWARD SPEED.
 
   
 
   
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  MORDREL HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (STT: D0.5/06HRS) AND IS LIKELY TO
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  AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
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CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MOST MODELS NO LONGER INITIATE THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
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  NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.7 WEST... ABOUT 1840 KM... 1150 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
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  DISCUSSION... INSTEAD MOST SHOW HIGH-PRESSURE BUILDING UP TO THE WEST OF MORDREL WHICH
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  OF BARRIER ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H OR 35 MPH
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  COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED. WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF PREVIOUS
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  WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL
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  FORECAST TRACK FOR NOW... BUT IF MODELS VERIFY AND THE HIGH PUSHES IN... EXPECT WIDE
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IS MOVING SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 80 KM/H... 50 MPH.
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DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST.
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  BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE NEEDED YET. MORDREL WILL
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  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100 MILES... FROM THE
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CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN WARM WATERS AIDED BY LOW SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER AS
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  CENTRE.
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PER ABOVE... IF THERE ARE WIDE DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST EMERGENCY WARNINGS
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  MAY HAVE TO BE INSTITUTED AT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE. FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TRACK
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FORECAST... MORDREL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO JUST SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
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WEAKENING... ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TWO RELIABLE MODELS HAVE MORDREL
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PEAKING AS A 75-KT HURRICANE IN AROUND 72-96 HOURS.
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  ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA...
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  AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF ABSORBING MORDREL THE MODELS ALL
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  AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS... SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24
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FAILED TO GET A GOOD GRIP ON THE CYCLONE. MOST MODELS... HOWEVER... ARE IN GENERAL
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  HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR
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  AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULTING COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM... STILL WITH SOME TROPICAL
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THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER
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  CHARACTERISTICS... WILL MOVE NORTH UP THROUGH THE OUTER ISLANDS AND INTO CARITAS.
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ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV.
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  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
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  INITIAL TIME... 04/1500H
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  INITIAL TIME... 06/0300H
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   INITIAL... 04.5 N 25.6 W... 35 KT <!-- 04/2100H... 05.1 N 25.1 W... 35 KT -->
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   INITIAL... 09.5 N 21.7 W... 35 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
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  05/0300H... 05.9 N 24.7 W... 40 KT <!-- 05/0900H... 06.6 N 24.3 W... 40 KT -->
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  06/1500H...ABSORBED BY LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW/FRONT
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05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.7 W... 40 KT <!-- 05/2100H... 08.0 N 23.0 W... 45 KT -->
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06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.6 W... 45 KT <!-- 06/0900H... 09.6 N 21.8 W... 45 KT -->
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06/1500H... 10.3 N 21.1 W... 50 KT <!-- 06/2100H... 11.1 N 20.2 W... 50 KT     
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07/0300H... 11.9 N 19.4 W... 55 KT      07/0900H... 12.7 N 18.7 W... 55 KT -->
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07/1500H... 13.4 N 18.0 W... 60 KT <!-- 07/2100H... 13.7 N 17.8 W... 60 KT   
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08/0300H... 14.3 N 17.4 W... 60 KT      08/0900H... 14.6 N 17.1 W... 55 KT -->
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08/1500H... 15.0 N 16.7 W... 55 KT...EAST OF BARRIER ISLAND
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  REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 04.5 NORTH 25.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
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  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 09.5 NORTH 21.7 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
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  65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE AT 20 KT.
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  65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST
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AT 43 KT.
 
   
 
   
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  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 2135 HPT.
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  THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE MAY ISSUE WARNINGS FOR
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THE COMPLEX LOW IF IT POSES A FLOODING RISK. REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR
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MORE INFORMATION.
 
   
 
   
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  FORECASTER RINDLI
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  FORECASTER JARVIS/CALTS
 
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----
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  TCTW02 FOLN 041535
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  TCTW02 FOLN 060345
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
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  ISSUED 1535 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
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  ISSUED 0345 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
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  ACTIVE TIME:        1500 21460504
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  ACTIVE TIME:        0300 21460506
 
  TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
 
  TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
 
  TROP CYC:          MORDREL
 
  TROP CYC:          MORDREL
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  WARNING NR:        2
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  WARNING NR:        8
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  POSITION:          4.5N 25.6W
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  POSITION:          9.5N 21.7W
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  ACCURACY:          35NM
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  ACCURACY:          75NM
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  MOVEMENT:          NNE 20KT
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  MOVEMENT:          NNE 43KT
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  CENT PRES:          1000HPA
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  CENT PRES:          999HPA
 
  MAX WIND:          35KT
 
  MAX WIND:          35KT
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  MAX GUST:          50KT
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  MAX GUST:          45KT
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  FCST 12HR:          5.9N 24.7W
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  FCST 12HR:          DISSIPATED
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  FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G55KT
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  FCST 12HR WINDS:    DISSIPATED
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  NXT WRN:            2100 21460504=
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  NXT WRN:            NO FURTHER WARNINGS=
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----
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BPCT2 HPCOR 041600
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TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2
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LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
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BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146
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TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA].
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POSITION LE 4 MAI A 15 HEURES HPT: 04.5 NORD / 25.6 OUEST
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(QUATRE DEGRES CINQ NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES SIX OUEST)
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DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 20 KT
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VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
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DES PROCHAINS JOURS:
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TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 07.2N 23.7W
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FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (50 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.3N 21.1W
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FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (60 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.4N 18.0W
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FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 15.0N 16.7W
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CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
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PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22 HEURES HPT.
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Latest revision as of 01:18, 9 August 2007

TCAD2 HPCOR 060345
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 008
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 10 PM MAY 5 LOCAL TIME

...MORDREL WEAKENING FAST... BARELY A TROPICAL STORM AS IT STARTS TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW... THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.

TROPICAL STORM MORDREL HAS SPED UP... IT IS STILL TROPICAL BUT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE LARGER LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEM... STILL WITH SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE... WILL THEN MOVE NORTH AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER
SYSTEM OVER LOS PAISES LEJANOS.

SATELLITE FIXES HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY AND NOW RANGE FROM T1.5/25 KTS TO T2.5/35 KTS.
BASED ON CONTINUITY THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE...
BUT THIS COULD BE RATHER GENEROUS GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF MORDREL ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETELY BROKEN
DOWN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY DUE TO ITS SUDDEN FORWARD SPEED.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.7 WEST... ABOUT 1840 KM... 1150 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF BARRIER ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H OR 35 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL
IS MOVING SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 80 KM/H... 50 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE.

AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF ABSORBING MORDREL THE MODELS ALL
FAILED TO GET A GOOD GRIP ON THE CYCLONE. MOST MODELS... HOWEVER... ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULTING COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM... STILL WITH SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS... WILL MOVE NORTH UP THROUGH THE OUTER ISLANDS AND INTO CARITAS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/0300H
 INITIAL... 09.5 N 21.7 W... 35 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
06/1500H...ABSORBED BY LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW/FRONT

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 09.5 NORTH 21.7 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT 43 KT.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE MAY ISSUE WARNINGS FOR
THE COMPLEX LOW IF IT POSES A FLOODING RISK. REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

FORECASTER JARVIS/CALTS

TCTW02 FOLN 060345
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0345 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0300 21460506
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         8
POSITION:           9.5N 21.7W
ACCURACY:           75NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 43KT
CENT PRES:          999HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR:          DISSIPATED
FCST 12HR WINDS:    DISSIPATED
NXT WRN:            NO FURTHER WARNINGS=
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