TD02 (2146)

TCAD2 HPCOR 060345
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 008
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 10 PM MAY 5 LOCAL TIME

...MORDREL WEAKENING FAST... BARELY A TROPICAL STORM AS IT STARTS TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW... THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.

TROPICAL STORM MORDREL HAS SPED UP... IT IS STILL TROPICAL BUT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE LARGER LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEM... STILL WITH SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE... WILL THEN MOVE NORTH AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER
SYSTEM OVER LOS PAISES LEJANOS.

SATELLITE FIXES HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY AND NOW RANGE FROM T1.5/25 KTS TO T2.5/35 KTS.
BASED ON CONTINUITY THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE...
BUT THIS COULD BE RATHER GENEROUS GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF MORDREL ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETELY BROKEN
DOWN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY DUE TO ITS SUDDEN FORWARD SPEED.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.7 WEST... ABOUT 1840 KM... 1150 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF BARRIER ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H OR 35 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL
IS MOVING SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 80 KM/H... 50 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE.

AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF ABSORBING MORDREL THE MODELS ALL
FAILED TO GET A GOOD GRIP ON THE CYCLONE. MOST MODELS... HOWEVER... ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULTING COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM... STILL WITH SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS... WILL MOVE NORTH UP THROUGH THE OUTER ISLANDS AND INTO CARITAS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/0300H
 INITIAL... 09.5 N 21.7 W... 35 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
06/1500H...ABSORBED BY LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW/FRONT

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 09.5 NORTH 21.7 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT 43 KT.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE MAY ISSUE WARNINGS FOR
THE COMPLEX LOW IF IT POSES A FLOODING RISK. REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

FORECASTER JARVIS/CALTS

TCTW02 FOLN 060345
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0345 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0300 21460506
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         8
POSITION:           9.5N 21.7W
ACCURACY:           75NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 43KT
CENT PRES:          999HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR:          DISSIPATED
FCST 12HR WINDS:    DISSIPATED
NXT WRN:            NO FURTHER WARNINGS=