Difference between revisions of "TD02 (2146)"

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{{Active storm|name=Tropical Storm Mordrel
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  TCAD2 HPCOR 060345
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|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
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  TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 008
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|time=2100 HPT
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|date=May 4
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|year=2146
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|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 5.1°N 25.1°W]<br/>About 3290 km (2045 mi) south-southwest of Modna Sud, Outer Islands or <br/>about 2225 km (1385 miles) west-northwest of Deopolinus, Herconia
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|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
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|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=1000 hPa
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|movement=Northeast at 23 kt}}
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----
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  TCAD2 HPCOR 042135
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  TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 003
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  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
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  9 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 4 PM LOCAL TIME
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  3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 10 PM MAY 5 LOCAL TIME
 
   
 
   
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  CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF
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  ...MORDREL WEAKENING FAST... BARELY A TROPICAL STORM AS IT STARTS TO BECOME
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THE CENTRE REVEALING A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. EXPECT THAT
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  ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW... THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.
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THIS SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW TO MODERATE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REGENERATE
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DEEP CONVECTION/CDO NEAR OR OVER CENTRE SOON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW
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LITTLE CHANGE... STILL T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW HAS LOWERED INTENSITY
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  ESTIMATE TO T2.5. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS... AS WELL AS A RECONNAISSANCE
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REPORT FROM FIVE HOURS AGO... WILL HOLD MORDREL AT 35 KT OR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
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MOTION OVER PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AT 045/17. INITIAL
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MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/23.
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  AFTER SOME EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION... THE MSHPC HAS CHOSEN NOT TO NAME THE SYSTEM
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  TROPICAL STORM MORDREL HAS SPED UP... IT IS STILL TROPICAL BUT WILL BE ABSORBED
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  ARIANA YET. THE LOS LEJANOS CRM WILL BE INFORMED AHEAD OF ANY SUCH NAMING. MORDREL
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  BY THE LARGER LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEM... STILL WITH SOME
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  WILL BE GIVEN THE NAME ARIANA IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM.
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  TROPICAL MOISTURE... WILL THEN MOVE NORTH AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER
 +
SYSTEM OVER LOS PAISES LEJANOS.
 
   
 
   
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  AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
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  SATELLITE FIXES HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY AND NOW RANGE FROM T1.5/25 KTS TO T2.5/35 KTS.
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TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.1 WEST... ABOUT 3290 KM... 2045 MILES...
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  BASED ON CONTINUITY THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE...
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  SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD IN THE OUTER ISLANDS... OR ABOUT 2225 KM... 1385 MILES...
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  BUT THIS COULD BE RATHER GENEROUS GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF MORDREL ON VISIBLE
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  WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR
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  SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETELY BROKEN
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  40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA. TROPICAL
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  DOWN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY DUE TO ITS SUDDEN FORWARD SPEED.
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  STORM MORDREL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH.
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  INTENSIFICATION HAS MOMENTARILY RETARDED DUE TO SHEARING OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
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  AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
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SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AND MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO
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  NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.7 WEST... ABOUT 1840 KM... 1150 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
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CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MODELS THAT PREDICTED A HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NW HAVE GOT
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  OF BARRIER ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H OR 35 MPH
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IT RIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THIS HIGH... AS WELL AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW
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  WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL
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  NEAR 11N 17W... WILL STEER THIS STORM TO THE RIGHT... OR EAST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
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  IS MOVING SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 80 KM/H... 50 MPH.
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  TRACK... AND MORDREL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
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  FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY. IN THE LONG-TERM... THE MODELS FORECAST SOME SORT
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  OF CURVATURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THEN TO THE EAST... WHICH PUTS MORIANTON IN THE FIRING
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LINE OF THE STORM.
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  BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
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  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100 MILES... FROM THE
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ISLANDS. WHILE MORDREL MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW... SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THIS FORECAST
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  CENTRE.
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TRACK WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DOWN. INTENSITY-FORECASTING COMPUTER MODELS NOW TAKE
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MORDREL TO ABOUT 45 KT ON THIS TRACK... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW IN BUMPING THE
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  FORECAST INTENSITY DOWN TO PEAK AT 45 KT.
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  COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS...
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  AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF ABSORBING MORDREL THE MODELS ALL
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SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS
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  FAILED TO GET A GOOD GRIP ON THE CYCLONE. MOST MODELS... HOWEVER... ARE IN GENERAL
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  SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY
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  AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULTING COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM... STILL WITH SOME TROPICAL
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FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV.
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  CHARACTERISTICS... WILL MOVE NORTH UP THROUGH THE OUTER ISLANDS AND INTO CARITAS.
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IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 90-HOUR FORECAST IS SHOWN DUE TO EXPECTED LANDFALL. DUE
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  TO THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI... FLOODING/RIVER OVERFLOW MAY POSE A DANGEROUS PROBLEM.
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  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
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  INITIAL TIME... 04/2100H
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  INITIAL TIME... 06/0300H
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   INITIAL... 05.1 N 25.1 W... 35 KT <!-- 05/0300H... 05.8 N 24.4 W... 35 KT -->
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   INITIAL... 09.5 N 21.7 W... 35 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
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05/0900H... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT <!-- 05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.0 W... 35 KT -->
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  06/1500H...ABSORBED BY LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW/FRONT
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  05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 40 KT <!-- 06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.0 W... 40 KT -->
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06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 40 KT <!-- 06/1500H... 10.2 N 20.8 W... 40 KT -->
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06/2100H... 10.9 N 20.2 W... 40 KT <!-- 07/0300H... 11.7 N 19.8 W... 40 KT
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07/0900H... 12.4 N 19.2 W... 45 KT      07/1500H... 13.0 N 18.5 W... 45 KT -->
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07/2100H... 13.5 N 17.7 W... 45 KT...SOUTH OF ILE GRANDE, OUTER ISLANDS
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<!--
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08/0300H... 13.9 N 17.0 W... 45 KT      08/0900H... 14.3 N 16.4 W... 45 KT -->
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08/1500H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 45 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON
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08/2100H... 14.6 N 15.2 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
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  REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 05.1 NORTH 25.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
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  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 09.5 NORTH 21.7 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
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  65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KT.
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  65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST
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AT 43 KT.
 
   
 
   
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  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT.
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  THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE MAY ISSUE WARNINGS FOR
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THE COMPLEX LOW IF IT POSES A FLOODING RISK. REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR
 +
MORE INFORMATION.
 
   
 
   
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  FORECASTERS STELIVA/HUNTER
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  FORECASTER JARVIS/CALTS
 
----
 
----
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  TCTW02 FOLN 042135
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  TCTW02 FOLN 060345
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
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  ISSUED 2135 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
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  ISSUED 0345 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
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  ACTIVE TIME:        2100 21460504
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  ACTIVE TIME:        0300 21460506
 
  TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
 
  TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
 
  TROP CYC:          MORDREL
 
  TROP CYC:          MORDREL
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  WARNING NR:        3
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  WARNING NR:        8
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  POSITION:          5.1N 25.1W
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  POSITION:          9.5N 21.7W
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  ACCURACY:          25NM
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  ACCURACY:          75NM
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  MOVEMENT:          NE 23KT
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  MOVEMENT:          NNE 43KT
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  CENT PRES:          1000HPA
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  CENT PRES:          999HPA
 
  MAX WIND:          35KT
 
  MAX WIND:          35KT
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  MAX GUST:          50KT
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  MAX GUST:          45KT
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  FCST 12HR:          6.5N 23.7W
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  FCST 12HR:          DISSIPATED
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  FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G50KT
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  FCST 12HR WINDS:    DISSIPATED
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  NXT WRN:            0300 21460504=
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  NXT WRN:            NO FURTHER WARNINGS=
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----
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BPCT2 HPCOR 042200
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TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3
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LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
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BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146
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TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA].
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POSITION LE 4 MAI A 21 HEURES HPT: 05.1 NORD / 25.1 OUEST
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(CINQ DEGRES UN NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES UN OUEST)
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DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST À 23 KT
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VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
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DES PROCHAINS JOURS:
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TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.0N 22.8W
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TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.9N 20.2W
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TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.5N 17.7W
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TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.6N 15.2W
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CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
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PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 04 HEURES HPT.
+

Latest revision as of 01:18, 9 August 2007

TCAD2 HPCOR 060345
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 008
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 10 PM MAY 5 LOCAL TIME

...MORDREL WEAKENING FAST... BARELY A TROPICAL STORM AS IT STARTS TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW... THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.

TROPICAL STORM MORDREL HAS SPED UP... IT IS STILL TROPICAL BUT WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE LARGER LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEM... STILL WITH SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE... WILL THEN MOVE NORTH AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER
SYSTEM OVER LOS PAISES LEJANOS.

SATELLITE FIXES HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY AND NOW RANGE FROM T1.5/25 KTS TO T2.5/35 KTS.
BASED ON CONTINUITY THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE...
BUT THIS COULD BE RATHER GENEROUS GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF MORDREL ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETELY BROKEN
DOWN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY DUE TO ITS SUDDEN FORWARD SPEED.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.7 WEST... ABOUT 1840 KM... 1150 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF BARRIER ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H OR 35 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL
IS MOVING SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 80 KM/H... 50 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE.

AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF ABSORBING MORDREL THE MODELS ALL
FAILED TO GET A GOOD GRIP ON THE CYCLONE. MOST MODELS... HOWEVER... ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE RESULTING COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM... STILL WITH SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS... WILL MOVE NORTH UP THROUGH THE OUTER ISLANDS AND INTO CARITAS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 06/0300H
 INITIAL... 09.5 N 21.7 W... 35 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
06/1500H...ABSORBED BY LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW/FRONT

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 09.5 NORTH 21.7 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT 43 KT.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE MAY ISSUE WARNINGS FOR
THE COMPLEX LOW IF IT POSES A FLOODING RISK. REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

FORECASTER JARVIS/CALTS

TCTW02 FOLN 060345
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0345 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0300 21460506
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         8
POSITION:           9.5N 21.7W
ACCURACY:           75NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 43KT
CENT PRES:          999HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR:          DISSIPATED
FCST 12HR WINDS:    DISSIPATED
NXT WRN:            NO FURTHER WARNINGS=
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