Difference between revisions of "TD02 (2146)"

Revision as of 06:38, 5 June 2007

TCAD2 HPCOR 042135
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 10 PM MAY 4 LOCAL TIME

SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MORDREL HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS IS DUE
TO DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM... WHICH HAD ALREADY BEEN
SHEARED BADLY. HOWEVER... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL RANGE IN THE 2S...
T2.0/30 KTS FROM AFLE AND T2.5/35 KTS FROM UHWF AND HDCW. THE 1:45 AM HPT
WIND SCATTEROMETER PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE IN THE GAPS IN BOTH ITS ASCENDING
AND DESCENDING PASSES SO THERE ARE NO SOLID WINDSPEED DATA AVAILABLE. BASED ON
CONTINUITY AM KEEPING MORDREL AT 35 KTS AND A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH
IN REALITY MORDREL COULD BE A DEPRESSION. AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN
DESPATCHED FROM AD'IHAN IN THE OUTER ISLANDS TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD
REPORT BACK ITS FIRST READINGS BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME... 5 AM HPT. INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 015/25.

AT 3 AM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ÎLE GRANDE
OF THE OUTER ISLANDS... THE COAST SOUTH OF LATITUDE 15 NORTH... AND FOR THE WHOLE
OF BARRIER ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE PUT INTO PLACE FOR PARTS OF
THE HERCONIAN AND MORIANTON COASTLINES. IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 HOURS.
EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE IN ADVANCE OF A WARNING.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 5.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 24.2 WEST... ABOUT 3115 KM/1935 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD OR ABOUT 2065 KM/1285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS,
HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 42 KM/H... 26 MPH.

SHEAR ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 15-20 KTS AND THIS
COULD TAKE A FURTHER TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. DRY AIR CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM
COULD WELL SEE MORDREL ON THE FAST-TRACK TO REMNANT LOW-VILLE... BUT THIS IS AN
'IF'. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MORDREL HAS WARMED TO ABOUT -60 C. ASSUMING THAT
MORDREL CAN OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR... MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY IN A MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TREK ON A GENERALLY
NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION. THE COMPUTER MODELS DEPICT A STRENGTHENING OF
THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR 11N 17W ABOUT 1070 KM SOUTH OF MODNA SUD. THIS NON-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO START PULLING AWAY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY
INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED OF MORDREL.

INTENSITY MODELS ARE SPLIT... MOST OF THE MAJOR MODELS DO FINE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE
HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE MODEL DISSIPATES MORDREL WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS SITUATION IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS BUT IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY. THE OTHER MODELS
PEAK MORDREL AT 40-50 KT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH TAKES
INTO ACCOUNT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW WEST OF NORTHERN HERCONIA... WILL CALL FOR A NEW PEAK
OF 40 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS INITIAL WEAKENING DUE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WEST OF TOZAI, MORIANTON IN 72 HOURS OR THEREABOUTS.

THE ALTERNATE SCENARIOS INCLUDE MORDREL DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS...
OR BEING FULLY ABSORBED BY THE NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. WHILE BOTH ARE STILL
DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES AM DISCOUNTING THEM BASED ON CONTINUITY OF FORECAST TRACK.

BASED ON THIS NEW FORECAST... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTS OF GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION
IN THE FORECAST THAT MORDREL WILL CATCH ON TO THE NON-TROPICAL LOW... WHICH SHOULD BRING
HIGH WINDS TO THE ISLANDS WHILE DRAGGING MORDREL ALONG. HEAVY SURF SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR
IN THE OUTER ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS
WELL AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES ON THE WESTERN MOUTH... FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNTIL
LANDFALL.

THE FORECAST LANDFALL POINT... TOZAI, MORIANTON... MIGHT BE IN FOR A ROUGH TIME IF
THE TOZAI LAKE OVERFLOWS DURING LANDFALL.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 05/0300H
 INITIAL... 05.9 N 24.2 W... 35 KT 
05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.0 W... 30 KT 
06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.0 W... 35 KT 
06/1500H... 10.2 N 20.8 W... 35 KT...PARTIAL ABSORPTION BY NON-TROPICAL LOW 
07/0300H... 12.4 N 18.7 W... 40 KT 
08/0300H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 40 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON 
09/0300H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 05.9 NORTH 24.2 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH- NORTHEAST AT
25 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ÎLE GRANDE AND
FOR BARRIER ISLAND.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT.

FORECASTER STELIVA

TCTW02 FOLN 050335
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0335 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0300 21460505
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         4
POSITION:           5.9N 24.2W
ACCURACY:           45NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 25KT
CENT PRES:          1002HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR:          7.2N 23.0W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT
NXT WRN:            0900 21460505=

BPCT2 HPCOR 050400
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 4
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1002 HPA].

POSITION LE 5 MAI A 21 HEURES HPT: 05.9 NORD / 24.2 OUEST
(CINQ DEGRES NEUF NORD ET VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 25 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.8N 22.0W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 12.4N 18.7W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 14.4N 15.7W

UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE GRANDE DU SUD ET POUR
BARRIER ISLAND.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 10 HEURES HPT.