Difference between revisions of "TD08 (2145)/Past"
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IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME. | IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME. | ||
− | AT 11 | + | AT 11 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY |
620 KM... 390 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. | 620 KM... 390 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. | ||
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... THE MINIMUM | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... THE MINIMUM |
Revision as of 04:31, 12 August 2006
Tropical Depression Eight
Advisory 1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 001... SPECIAL ADVISORY...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 2 AM PAX... 4 AM HPT... 6 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145 CORRECTED SPELLING OF SANKT RIURIK IN FORECAST CORRECTED AT 6:45 AM HPT TO INDICATE NEXT ADVISORY AND TO CHANGE FORECAST HDCW REPORTED AT 0513H LST THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF POPULARFREEDOM HAD GAINED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND HAD A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE... AND T NUMBERS WERE 1.5/1.5 FROM HCDW AND UHWF AT 0531H LST AND 0517H LST RESPECTIVELY... MAKING THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. PER THE T-NUMBERS... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS NEAR AN AREA OF DRY AIR... AND MAY NOT LAST LONG. INDEED... THE AFLE MODEL BRINGS THIS TO A MINIMAL 35-KT TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING IT BY 48 HOURS. THE UHWF SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY SUBTROPICAL AT THIS POINT... AND PEAKS IT AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR SANKT RIURIK. THE HCDW'S EXTRAPOLATED MODEL SUGGESTS A PEAK OF 38 KNOTS BEFORE DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE ABOVE... AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR AND 25-KT WIND SHEAR AWAITING IT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DISSIPATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IN 60 HOURS. AT 6 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT LOCATED ABOUT 285 KM... 180 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM... ABOUT 430 KM... 270 MILES EAST OF LOCKE HARBOUR... OR ABOUT 995 KM... 620 MILES... NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK, VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KM/H... 10 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HECTOPASCALS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY AS THE STORM GRADUALLY INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED. NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN 30-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL... 995 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT 6 HOURS... 890 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT 12 HOURS... 755 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT 24 HOURS... 515 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 36 HOURS... 300 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT 48 HOURS... 215 KM WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72 HOURS...DISSIPATED FORECASTER RYAN
Advisory 2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 002... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145 CORRECTED TO SWAP "HDCW" AND "UHWF" IN FIRST PARA. CORRECTED FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT... AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UHWF REPORTS T1.5 AT 0949H LST AND HDCW REPORTED THAT A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1011H LST FAILED TO FIND ANY CLEAR CENTRE OF THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AT 11 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 KM... 555 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 50 KM/H OR 30 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 23 KM/H... 14 MPH. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SYSTEM. THE AFLE STILL PEAKS IT AS A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM IN 18 HOURS... WHICH MAY SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THE UHWF IS STILL INSISTING ON A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL IN SANKT RIURIK... THE HDCW'S EXTRAPOLATED MODEL PEAKS IT AT 41 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SURVIVE THE CONDITIONS LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE LANDFALL... AS WELL AS A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN IN THE STORM'S PATH BEING FORECAST... BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ATTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE AFLE MODEL... BUT THERE IS LITTLE... IF ANY... CHANGE IN TRACK. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY AS THE STORM GRADUALLY INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED. REPEATING THE 11 AM POSITION... 885 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HPA. TD EIGHT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 23 KM/H. NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN 30-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 06/0900 HPT INITIAL... 885 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT 06/1500H... 745 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT 07/0300H... 505 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/1500H... 285 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT...DISSIPATING 08/0300H... 200 KM WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 08/1500H...DISSIPATED FORECASTER RYAN
Advisory 3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION A BIT STRONGER... CONVECTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST SIX HOURS... AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SOON. QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1626H LST MANAGED TO DETERMINE CIRCULATION CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT... WHICH MAY INDICATE IT GETTING BETTER ORGANISED. DVORAK READINGS FROM HDCW AT 1455H LST SEEMED TO INDICATE SLIGHT STRENGTHENING... AND AS SUCH... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 30 KNOTS. AT 11 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 KM... 470 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 21 KM/H... 13 MPH. THE MODELS STILL FAIL TO AGREE ON THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER... ONE MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE LAST ADVISORY IS THAT THE UHWF NO LONGER INSISTS ON LANDFALL... AND THE HDCW'S EXTRAPOLATED FORECAST ALSO NO LONGER SHOWS LANDFALL TO TAKE THE UHWF MODEL INTO ACCOUNT. I BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM... AND SURVIVE A WHILE... BEFORE SHEAR TEARS IT APART. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPEEDS THE STORM UP A LITTLE FROM 12 HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... TOPPING OFF AT NEAR 40 KM/H AT ONE POINT. INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE ALSO BEEN CHANGED. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS. REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION... 750 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 21 KM/H. NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN 40-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS. SHIPPING ADVISORY... CENTRE OF STORM LOCATED FOUR ZERO FIVE NAUTICAL MILES ON A BEARING OF THREE ONE ONE DEGREES FROM SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTRE ARE THREE ZERO KNOTS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 06/1500 HPT INITIAL... 750 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT 06/2100H... 620 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/0300H... 500 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT 07/1500H... 20 KM W SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 08/0300H... 200 KM WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...DISSIPATING 08/1500H...DISSIPATED FORECASTER RYAN
Advisory 4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION A BIT STRONGER... SHORT AND SIMPLE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS STILL GAINING STRENGTH BUT IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME. AT 11 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 KM... 390 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 24 KM/H... 15 MPH. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WILL ENTER A HIGH-SHEAR REGION WITHIN 18 HOURS. THIS LEAVES VERY LITTLE TIME FOR STRENGTHENING... WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ALL MODELS... INCLUDING THE HDCW'S EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... HAVE BEEN IGNORED FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION OF FACTORS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS. REPEATING THE 11 PM POSITION... 620 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 24 KM/H. NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN 40-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS. SHIPPING ADVISORY... CENTRE OF STORM LOCATED THREE THREE FIVE NAUTICAL MILES ON A BEARING OF THREE ZERO FIVE DEGREES FROM SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTRE ARE THREE ZERO KNOTS... FORECAST FOR ZERO SIX HOURS... TWO FIVE FIVE NAUTICAL MILES ON A BEARING OF THREE ONE THREE DEGREES FROM SANKT RIURIK. FORECAST MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTRE TO BE THREE FIVE KNOTS. FORECAST WIND RADIUS OF THIRTY-FOUR KNOT WINDS ARE ONE THREE NAUTICAL MILES. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 06/2100 HPT INITIAL... 620 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT 07/0300H... 475 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/1500H... 190 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED FORECASTER RYAN