TD08 (2145)
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Tropical Cyclone Report
TCR08 TCWC HPCLC LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU WARNING CENTRE TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ MAR 06 - 08 2145 TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT JULY 30 2145 TROPICAL CYCLONE HISTORY... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS FIRST SPOTTED EAST OF POPULARFREEDOM ON MARCH 5. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WAS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STATEMENT RELEASE OF THE MSHPC TWU FOR YURI AT 0830 HPT MARCH 5. IT WAS NOTED MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANISATION. THE VERY NEXT TWU ISSUANCE AT 1500 HPT WAS THE FIRST TO SPECIFICALLY MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, THE LOW SUDDENLY LOST CONVECTION AND ORGANISATION AS NOTED IN THE 0300 HPT TWU OF MARCH 6 DESPITE CONDITIONS REMAINING FAVOURABLE. HOWEVER... THE DEEP CONVECTION MADE A QUICK RETURN... AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 0400 HPT ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT. IN POST-OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT AT 0300 HPT THE SYSTEM HAD SUSTAINED ITS ORGANISATION AND CONVECTION LONG ENOUGH BEFORE DROPPING SOME OF IT TO HAVE BEEN DESIGNATED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FIRST BULLETIN ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS ISSUED 13 HOURS AFTER THE FIRST MENTION OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN THE TWU. DATA T-NUMBERS FROM HDCW AND UHWF AT AROUND 0315 HPT WERE A CONSISTENT T1.5... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SET AT 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINED THIS INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BEFORE RELAXING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MADE IT POSSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 0300 HPT ON MARCH 7... AFTER HDCW GAVE DATA-T OF 3.0 AND AN AIR FORCE RECON FLIGHT FOUND 35-KT WINDS. AT THE VERY NEXT ADVISORY... THE STORM WAS DROPPED BACK TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH AFTER LOSING A LOT OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SHORT-LIVED AND IT QUICKLY REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. QUIKSCAT AND HDCW DATA SUGGESTED A STRONGER STORM... AND THEREFORE BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE MSHPC DECIDED TO RAISE THE INTENSITY OF GYARNIFQ TO 40 KT AT 1500 HPT ON MARCH 7. GYARNIFQ MADE LANDFALL A SHORT TIME LATER NEAR SANKT RIURIK, NEW VARANGIA, THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY AS A 45-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. IT BECAME ABSORBED BY A LARGER SYSTEM NOT LONG AFTER. DAMAGE/CASUALTY STATISTICS... ONLY MINIMAL DAMAGE WAS REPORTED FROM TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ... ALTHOUGH IT CAUSED TWO DEATHS. ACCORDING TO THE HEARTLAND BUSINESS JOURNAL... NEITHER THE PORTS IN DANJLGRAD NOR SANKT RIURIK WERE SEVERELY AFFECTED... AND IT WAS BUSINESS AS USUAL THE DAY AFTER THE STORM. METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS... SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY FIXES WERE AVAILABLE ON THIS SYSTEM FROM BOTH THE UNITED HEARTLAND WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM (UHWF) AND THE HEARTLAND DATA COLLECTION CENTRE FOR WEATHER (HDCW). RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS PROVIDED BY THE AIR FORCE OF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. AT LANDFALL... OBSERVERS ON THE GROUND REPORTED 37-KT TEN-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS. WIND GUSTS TO 57 KT WERE MEASURED. TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK... TIME (HPT) LAT LON WIND (KT) MSLP (HPA) NOTES 06/0300H 42.4N 35.5E 25 1014 06/0400H 42.4N 35.6E 25 1013 ADVISORIES INITIATED 06/0900H 42.2N 35.8E 25 1013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06/1500H 42.0N 36.2E 30 1012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06/2100H 41.7N 36.6E 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07/0300H 41.4N 37.0E 35 1006 TROPICAL STORM 07/0900H 41.1N 37.3E 30 1005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07/1500H 40.9N 37.8E 40 1003 TROPICAL STORM 07/2100H 40.4N 38.7E 30 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08/0300H 40.2N 39.8E 25 1011 REMNANT LOW 08/0900H ABSORBED ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 07/1930H 40.7N 38.4E 45 1000 LANDFALL NEAR SANKT RIURIK 07/1930H 40.7N 38.4E 45 1000 MINIMUM PRESSURE TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH AND WARNING HISTORY... TIME (HPT) ACTION LOCATION AFFECTED 06/1500H TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK 07/0300H TROPICAL STORM WARNING DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK SUPERSEDES TROPICAL STORM WATCH 07/1500H TROPICAL STORM WARNING DOWNGRADED NORTH OF SANKT RIURIK TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES SANKT RIURIK AND IMMEDIATE COAST 07/1800H TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED NORTH OF SANKT RIURIK 07/1930H TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED SOUTH OF SANKT RIURIK FOR 130 KM 07/2100H ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FORECASTERS RINDLI/RYAN/HUNTER
